Betting on politics since 2010, trying to separate what I want to happen from what I think will happen. https://xitter.cf/t.co/fsH3BhnV2C
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Today for Betfair I tipped Polanski to win on Thursday. It's not likely, but it's not 20/1 unlikely in my humble opinion.
betting.betfair.com/politics…
ICYMI: My first piece for Betfair on the US Midterms. A state by state roundup coming nearer the date.
betting.betfair.com/politics…
New article for Betfair: How big is Farage likely to win in Clacton?
betting.betfair.com/politics…
Pleased to say I'm now writing politics articles for Betfair, starting with this piece on Makerfield and what parties with Restore's polling actually tend to deliver. This time could be different, though.
@BetfairExchange
betting.betfair.com/politics…
Pip Moss (quincel.bsky.social) retweeted
AbbVie raises 2024 profit forecast on strong sales of key drugs Skyrizi, Rinvoq reut.rs/4fq7Ay1
The Senate/White House splits in polls are still eye-popping with Harris on the ballot paper.
If, and it's a big If, Harris maintains positive approval ratings up to election day you'd have to suspect that would translate to a solid popular vote win. Trump has never been a very popular candidate, he was just more popular than Biden who had awful approvals by mid-2024.
#New Favorability Poll - 🔵 Harris
Favorable 50% (+4)
Unfavorable 46%
Highest Favorable rating in the whole election cycle for any candidate, 11% swing in Favor of Harris
Morning Consult C
Not a poll but a survey. Useless data.
New frontrunner emerges in Tory leadership race, poll reveals
gbnews.com/politics/tory-lea…
Surveys let anyone who wants to answer and don't attempt to get a balanced sample or weight to correct the sample bias. Polls have statisticians work to try and fix those issues.
Polls have a strong if imperfect record of accuracy. Surveys are bunk.
With all the twists and turns Tory leadership races tend to have Badenoch is much too short. Maybe the right favourite, but more like 4/1 for my money. 3/1 absolute max.
Next Conservative Party Leader Odds:
Kemi Badenoch: 2/1
Robert Jenrick: 3/1 ✅
Tom Tugendhat: 5/1 ✅
James Cleverly: 6/1 ✅
Priti Patel: 10/1
Mel Stride: 40/1
Suella Braverman: 40/1
✅ = Declared Candidacy
Via @oddschecker, 25 Jul.
I kinda feel it will hinge on one question: Are people deciding based on her or him?
Trump won an election where the public were focused on his opponent, and lost one when they focused on him. I suspect the same dynamic will mostly apply here.
Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign will hinge on 3 key questions:
1. Can she name any of her successes as VP?
2. Can she relate to swing-state voters?
3. Can she win over anti-Trump voters who didn’t want to vote for Biden?
I linked up with @TheLauraCoates to talk more.
Sad news for my bet, but total vindication yet again that media access is way worse than it pretends to be. A load of articles today and yesterday that he was digging in, no-one seems to have gotten this leak a few hours ahead.
48 hours on from my 2.7 bet on Biden nominee, I don't feel great but I thought I'd feel worse. Some interesting reporting today that Biden remains very unmoved, but you can never trust these behind-the-scenes stories too much.