TONIGHT on Predictable w/ Stu: Could a polling error give Republicans a path to holding the Senate, or does the data tell a different story? @StuDoesAmerica breaks down historical polling errors and what they could mean for the 2026 midterms. youtube.com/watch?v=w9lDZKQE…

The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, enacted in July, will restrict large institutional investors from buying single-family homes. The law generally covers entities in the business of owning, renting, managing, or holding homes that have investment control over at least 350 single-family homes; the restriction is scheduled to begin Jan. 7, 2027. Exceptions include programs for newly built rentals, substantial renovations, and helping renters move toward homeownership. The proposal is scheduled to be published in the Federal Register on Oct. 23, after which the Treasury will accept public comments for 30 days.

A New Mexico judge ordered Meta to pay the state $25 billion after a jury found nearly 44 million violations of state consumer protection law, including misleading statements about Facebook users’ control over their personal data. The case grew out of Facebook’s data practices surrounding the Cambridge Analytica scandal, in which user data was harvested for political targeting during the 2016 election season. Under New Mexico law, the penalty money is directed to public education, though it could be tied up for years. Meta says it plans to appeal and is confident it will prevail.

Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers traded sharp attacks in Wednesday’s final Michigan Senate debate. El-Sayed called Rogers a “sock puppet” for President Trump, while Rogers accused El-Sayed of a “pattern of deception”; they also clashed over Iran, tariffs, healthcare, and national security. The latest Marist poll has El-Sayed ahead 50% to 48% among likely voters, within the poll’s 4.3-point margin of error, while Polymarket currently prices an El-Sayed win at about 70% and a Rogers win at 30%, with roughly $2.1 million in volume.

A new AP-NORC poll finds roughly 8 in 10 registered voters want the next Congress to prioritize lowering the cost of living, while about 7 in 10 prioritize ending the war in Iran. Affordability remains a central issue heading into the midterms.

JUST IN: President Trump heads to Iowa today as Republicans fight to hold key seats in a state he won by 13 points in 2024, per Reuters.

Could a Polling Error Save Republicans? Stu Ran the Numbers xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1qKVmyYky…

About 1 in 5 Americans say they have cut back on groceries, switched to cheaper food, or considered doing so because of rising electricity bills, according to a nationally representative Consumer Reports survey of 2,003 adults. Roughly 1 in 4 also said they had reduced their heating or air conditioning to uncomfortable levels, or considered doing so, to save money. Among people who have lived in the same home for at least three years, about 80% said their electricity bills had increased during that time. The findings show how rising utility costs are adding to the broader cost-of-living squeeze ahead of the midterm elections.