15 years corporate data and analytics consulting. Chart trader. Commodities, options, divergences. Free journal, not financial advice.
Joined January 2026
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Friendly reminder.
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We've barely begun this reversion.
It doesn't move in a straight line...but when it moves, it takes 2-3 years and silver loses 50% from its peak and oil runs 2-5x. 15+ examples over 75 years.
It's a business cycle.
?
$SPY just as well test it
$TLT
US10
I look at a hundred charts a day easily.
I keep coming back to these as being incredibly important right now.
Bearish divergence on TLT and bullish divergence on US10, both into Resistance/Support.
I think this is foretelling...that the inflation narrative is not over. It's reloading. Like US moving carriers into the Middle East...this setup is prepping for another leg.
Calls for a peak in rates are gonna be see as premature.
Implications?
Oils headed higher.
PMs headed lower.
$SPY
$VIX
$IBTA
I draw a lot of trendlines.
Feel free to roast me for it I genuinely am not offended. If the trendlines didn't matter i wouldn't be any good at what I do.
SPY hitting its head on a trend line I drew a little while back. Somewhat concerning to be honest. Doesn't mean we won't crack it this week and be off to new ATHs.
VIX broke above the Convid PLANdemic trendline...and is now back testing it. Quite concerning if I'm being honest. If we find a floor in the low 20s then a 60 VIX print is far more likely.
Meanwhile a digital coupon company is up 3x this year from its lows.
The economy must be doing really well. Obviously. (/S)
If there is one hole in the energy thesis, it's risk of a recession. Crazy thing is... There's plenty of stuff for people to cut from their budget before they will cut energy. Gas prices could double and most people in the US would keep paying it and just cut their gym membership, streaming service, daily coffee, a few eating out meals a month...etc.
Given how cheap some CRE has sold recently I'm guessing some folks with big money see energy lockdowns coming...and a lot more work from home.
If we go back to the Obama presidency...he let it slip what the end goal was for energy.
"Energy prices will necessarily skyrocket"
They don't want the masses having unlimited access to energy. Energy allows travel. Energy allows farming. Energy allows self reliance.
A world is much easier to control if the people all drive electric cars with kill switches that only have 200 miles of range and plug into an electric grid that is easy to shut down.
Cash for clunkers was just the start at restricting the plebs. Destruction of refineries is another step in that direction...
If you've ever been in a field with a 50 year old tractor that hasn't been started in 6 months and watched a diesel expert get it running and then do 100x the work of a group of men with shovels...you understand the power that people used to have. It's being taken away. For a very specific reason.
Silver deficit is so bad that they are giving it away. Because. Deficit? Wut?
Maybe SD just hates money?
Maybe they are just real down home folks who want to fight the banking cartels all by themselves?
Or maybe...just maybe... Investment (one of the top 4 pillars to silver demand) is in low demand right now.
US10
Apex so good. Seriously.
Now are you ready for it to go higher?
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US 10 year
$TLT
Just as we can see in the shorter term $DXY charts...we can see here on the 10 year that we are alittle over-extended and a retracement / back test is likely. Wouldn't surprise me to see USgov/Fed trying to talk rates down for the next 6-8 weeks, suckering some folks into thinking that the worst of the selling is over in equities...
But lets be real...Inflation is not done, in fact, it's just getting started. Diesel, gasoline, oil...all are headed higher. You can blow up a massive portion of the infrastructure in the world and then hope that everyone buys an EV.
Oil is headed higher until oil breaks the worldwide economy. That's just how it works. We need prices so high that demand destruction destroys economies and markets.
If this view is correct...we should see other signs that folks are planning for higher rates, higher dollar, and higher oil.
Remember...I've been telling people that in '22 we saw oil AND the dollar rally together. I think it's going to happen again.
Insane how good this call was.
Glad all 200 of you got to see it lol.
$DXY
US10YR
Dollar has room to go lower, allowing stonks to go higher.
Rates give reprieve until confluence, which happens to Apex at the election.
Trump obviously was selected to destroy the Republican party...
And 90% of Congress is owned by Israel.
No arguing that.
But if you believe this little map below...would urge you to go visit some small bars, restaurants, gas stations across Iowa and see if this is the sentiment you get lol.
I could care less about it being rigged. I've known it was rigged for 30 years.
But this is so in your face it's kinda ridiculous no one is even really talking about it.
ApexPrognosticator retweeted
Shaking out weak hands.
A couple points before the charts:
1. Congress does not control war. Israel does. War will continue. I expect renewed strikes on the full moon.
2. Congress doesn't impact physical barrels. Have a blue wave did not rebuild any infrastructure.
Shorter term charts show the pain obviously. But this was somewhat expected. I said we'd get a correction of 5-10%. We got like 15% instead.
Red support line held beautifully. I didn't move that line, it was in place since before the last touch a few months ago...clearly it matters.
Longer term we have a bull flag on crude. Nothing move in a straight line. This flag will take us well into the hundreds of dollars a barrel.
Longer term $XOP chart shows a massive inverse head and shoulders.
Longer term $TAN chart with a symmetrical triangle that will break to the upside as higher energy strokes demand for alternatives.
And my bread and butter ..the silver/oil ratio chart...says that even if silver bottomed today....the most likely oil price is $250 in 2 years. $125 is a minimum price of silver stays at $50. $500 a barrel is 30% chance. All based on historical reversion cycles.
I remain bullish oil. I think people cutting longs here this week are gonna feel reeetarded in 3 weeks.
-3.6
99.3 (66 inverse)
-33
399 (66 inverse)
282.2 (8-2=6... 3 times, 666)
-133.2
-32
The importance of 32, 33, and 6s...with this satanic religion that runs the world...combined with the actual probability that all these numbers would show up like this in one press release about oil/diesel draws...combined with the charts/support levels, election and recent selloff....
Anyway. My conspiracy brain is pretty sure this is a signal.
Quite content being long commodities... Oil, natural gas, alternatives, fertilizers.
Sorry for the midweek "shitpost". Trying to keep em to the weekends only but I just couldn't cruise past all this numerology and not saying anything.
BREAKING: US diesel inventories dropped -3.6 million barrels last week, to 99.3 million barrels, the lowest level since May 2003.
Since January 2026, distillate fuel oil inventories have declined -33.7 million barrels, or -25%.
Furthermore, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell -399,000 barrels last week, to 282.2 million barrels, its lowest since October 1982.
Since March, oil inventories in the SPR have dropped by -133.2 million barrels, or -32%.
Meanwhile, commercial crude oil stocks excluding the SPR declined -865,000 barrels last week, to 409.8 million barrels, their lowest reading since July 31st.
US fuel reserves are being depleted at a rapid pace.
