Pro free speech, soft libertarian/conservative, atheist, euroskeptic, Medicane enthusiast. 'COVID centrist'. 🇬🇧🇺🇦 Likes = interest not agreement
Joined February 2014
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Hurricane isaias has clear fronts, or more accurately the large extratropical cyclone it is embedded in does. This extratropical cyclone will start to absorb the hurricane now and transition it to a completely extratropical system.
If there is a by election this will almost certainly be a Labour hold. The green party is on a rapid decline, and this will only cement that.
Good luck. Its a long shot to win but you are a strong candidate to try.
London needs more than an administrator. It needs a champion, someone who understands its potential and is prepared to fight for its future.
That’s why I’m running to be the Conservative Candidate for London Mayor.
thetimes.com/comment/columni…
You have to admit Kemi has played a blinder here. Let Reform (and restore) set high expectations for Makerfield while quietly pulling out a win in Aberdeen. Tories have definitely won the expectation management game tonight.
Underrated possibility here. If the Tories gain Aberdeen south, Reform come 2nd in Makerfield (and restore nowhere) the centre of mass of the right might move towards the Tories. Momentum matters, if the Tories win Aberdeen south by even 1 vote expect a poll bounce.
Prediction.
Makerfield: Lab hold. Lab: 47%, Rfm: 41%, Res: 5%.
Reform behind roughly by the amount restore gets.
Aberdeen S: SNP hold. SNP: 27%, CON 26%, LAB: 16%
Tossup between SNP and Tory who benefit from Lab and SNP antipathy.
Arbroath: SNP hold. SNP 29%, Lab 20%
The good news for reform is that constituency polls usually underestimate the squeeze and CON+RES is nearly 10%. The bad news is that getting half is a big ask. Labour still clear favourites but will win by a small margin.
🚨 Makerfield By-Election Voting Intention:
🌹 LAB: 46% (+1)
➡️ REF: 41% (+9)
🟣 RSB: 7% (NEW)
🌳 CON: 2.5% (-8)
🔶️ LDEM: <2% (-5)
🟢 GRN: <2% (-2)
From @OpiniumResearch
Changes with GE2024
And this is not praise of Labour. Labour has a competent and effective ground game that sits in stark contrast to their incompetence and ineptitude at actually running the country.
If Reform is wise they'd pick someone with an A or B surname to appear above Burnham in the ballot. Might sound trivial but could be worth 500+ votes according to some studies.
The main story has been rearrangement within left/right blocs (e.g Lab->Grn, Con-> Ref)
But tonight we see that superimposed on another interbloc axis Left->Right.
Together the damage accumulates on Labour while there is constructive interference on the greens that limit gains.
Results so far
Reform: Strongly overperforming
Labour: Strongly underperforming
Lib: Weakly underperforming
Green: Weakly underperforming
Tory: Roughly in line with expectations
The model is obviously wrong. This is insane. The UK has been stagnating (in per capita terms) since the financial crash as have comparable EU states. So if we'd remained, this trend would have suddenly dramatically reversed despite this not happening in the EU itself!?
Brexit has likely done more economic damage than feared.
Recent evidence suggests the economic cost of Brexit may be approaching twice the 4% impact assumed by the OBR.
The Chancellor has signalled a shift in approach to EU trade, but the effect will depend on how far the govt goes on alignement.
ALT Chart showing estimated fall in GDP per person resulting from Brexit (based on different specifications in a synthetic control model): UK, Q1-2026 to Q2-2025
Labour: Dreadful and clearly out of their depth
Green: Completely crazy
Lib Dems: Completely irrelevant
Reform: Yelling at clouds and Polling companies
The Tories are still the best option at the moment.
