xTradFi 15yrs - Investing journal for small hedge fund. Current bets: Biotech, Critical Commodities, Robotics.
Joined December 2021
- Tweets2.6K
- Following643
- Followers512
- Likes96.3K
ReshapeTech retweeted
Life is chosen suffering - that's all it is, we have to pick the suffering that gives us the most meaning in exchange.
IF we do not pick, we are assigned a form of suffering; e.g. mediocrity in your career is a form of suffering. Being obese and unfit is a form of suffering.
To live is to suffer, but being able to pick your choice of suffering is a form of bliss.
ReshapeTech retweeted
This hand-drawn chart is over 90 years old.
Jesse Livermore sketched it in the 1930s to show his students how every speculative stock moves through the same numbered phases:
– Points 1–4: Accumulation cylinder, smart money quietly buying
– Points 5–7: The all-important action, breakout, volume, the rally begins
– Points 8–13: The test before selling short, final euphoric peak, lower high
– After 13: Distribution and collapse
Look at where we are right now.
Micron, SanDisk, the DRAM ETF, Oracle, SMCI, AppLovin, Nvidia – all sitting somewhere between points 8 and 10. Vertical moves. Record volumes. Headlines turning euphoric.
Palantir is further along. Maybe 12 or 13. The phase Livermore literally circled and labeled "test before selling short."
This is where the most money is made in the shortest time in any market cycle. Bull markets are won in this zone. Life-changing returns are compounded here.
But it is also exactly the phase where Livermore lost three fortunes.
Because the same energy that drives a stock from point 8 to point 13 quietly pushes it past 13.
The setups today are real. The opportunities are real. The money being made is real.
The sell rules still apply.
– Trim into strength, not weakness
– Take partial profits at the 20–25% mark
– Cut losses at 7–8%, no exceptions
– Watch for the climax run signature
Make money on the way up.
Just don't give it all back on the way down.
Livermore wrote the rulebook on this. He still ended up broke.
The chart never changes. Because the chart isn't drawing the stock. It's drawing the people who own it.
ReshapeTech retweeted
Listening to @PierrePoilievre break down monetary policy on Joe Rogan, this is exactly the kind of conviction I stand behind.
#cdnpoli
ReshapeTech retweeted
Synchronized. A global reacceleration is under way and it is broadening.
Details below.
dannydayan.substack.com/p/sy…
ReshapeTech retweeted
Some life alpha:
If you are determined, ambitious and hardworking, life will give you a lot of opportunities to succeed by allowing you to find spots in which you can press for an advantage.
You can think of your day to day as mostly being uneventful as you press yourself up against the wall of opportunity. Months go by and often nothing happens.
One fine day, without warning, a crack on the wall will appear and you will be able to reap what you have been sowing for the past couple of months/years. The time from pushing to reaping is indeterminate, random and extremely frustrating.
Most people will give up long before it happens - for 2 reasons:
1) their patience is finite, fragile and thin and
2) they are easily distracted by the things that don't actually matter. (hint: MOST things in life don't actually matter ex-post)
When you are chasing an outcome, you will find a hundred distractions in your path and conjure a million reasons on why you should give up.
--
But if you are earnest about your goals and have the patience of a monk and the drive and tenacity of a warrior - the wall will break. Reality will crack under your will.
Everything else is a distraction.
ReshapeTech retweeted
the older i get the more i realize how simple a good life really is. wake up early. lift 3x a week. walk 30 minutes a day. eat real food. drink water. sleep well. read. obsess over something that matters. spend time with loved ones. avoid drama. be grateful. you’ll already be healthier and happier than 95% of people.
ReshapeTech retweeted
We often talk about how “detached” financial assets have become from the real economy- how valuations can keep inflating indefinitely so long as the music keeps playing through each cycle.
But the music always stops when people are forced to sell assets to fund their living expenses. That’s what triggers every credit crisis- and the catalyst is always the same: job losses.
We’re now seeing layoffs at record scale. IBM just joined the list that already includes Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Intel, McKinsey, and Goldman. And ironically these cuts aren’t happening because growth is slowing- they’re happening because the cost of labor has fundamentally changed due to AI.
In a strange twist, the very layoffs fueling these “efficiency gains” are what drive the same companies to outperform, boosting their ROE and forcing investors to own the engines of their own displacement.
And the Fed knows it. No amount of rate cuts can bring those jobs back. No amount of reserve plumbing will refill those empty offices. No amount of SRF usage will reverse aging demographics. Because this isn’t a cycle. It’s a structural shift.
And the inevitable conclusion is always the same: the case for Bitcoin is the case for a new relationship between labor and capital- one that encodes this “digital labor” into a truly scarce asset.
ReshapeTech retweeted
negative thinking destroys your brain
being a silly goose and delusionally optimistic is the ultimate longevity hack
ReshapeTech retweeted
It seems a common experience in the lives of people with high agency is that they, at some point, metaphorically, lean against a wall and discover that there is a hidden door.
ReshapeTech retweeted
When I was an undergrad, folks who didn’t know what to do got into consulting to work across industries and “maximize options”.
4-6 years in, those who still don’t know get an MBA to “pivot”.
Afterwards many end up in VC for the same reason they got into consulting.
Framing career questions around “what problems I want to solve in the world”, and using that as a North Star prevents a lifetime of optionality-maxing and minimal chance-taking.
I’ll forever be grateful to my friend who recommended me a biography on @elonmusk a decade ago for pilling me to this concept.
ReshapeTech retweeted
Freedom is an asset
Most people don't realize: buying things also has an opportunity cost
e.g. the new thing:
1. must be maintained (time & cost)
2. needs financing/mortgage payments
3. creates anxiety over losing the thing (humans HATE losing a house/car repossessed)
Long personal runway = peace of mind + optionality
ReshapeTech retweeted
I can’t stress this point enough, because it’s something I always circle back to: as a trader, your job is not to predict the market. Your job is to manage risk.
That means the outcome of any single trade should never be the standard by which you judge it. The true measure lies in the quality of the decision you made at the time; based on the information, probabilities, and risk/reward parameters you had in front of you.
The moment you enter a trade, the outcome must become irrelevant. What matters is that you know why you entered, what risks you’re accepting, what rewards you’re seeking, and the probabilities you’re playing. If you’ve done that with clarity, then it’s a good trade; regardless of whether it wins or loses.
ReshapeTech retweeted
You just need to take a good look at all the older people who didn't get to live the life they wanted, and it will become obvious that the causes are always the same, generation after generation:
ReshapeTech retweeted
Most traders overcomplicate crypto.
They chase “the next big coin,” follow influencer picks, or try to time every move.
But what if a simple approach could outperform Bitcoin?
Here are the rules:
ReshapeTech retweeted
Every "man in the arena" knows that nobody cares. The world will always forget and move on. But instead of using it to justify inaction they simply use it to their advantage
Ruthlessly show up. Position themselves in the flow of attention. Let the fearful criticize. Let the bold support. Dust the dirt off their shoulder and become a luck magnet. Wake up one day to all of their manifestations having come true
Dream life is just a dog mentality away. Nobody wants to expose themselves to the meaningless threat of embarrassment so make it stupidly easy on yourself to succeed by doing the opposite
ReshapeTech retweeted
you too can easily be s-tier on @StatusL2 testnet v1:
1- go to snt-staking-demo.netlify.app…
2- click on the faucet to get some STT (Status Testnet Token)
3- stake or lock it
4- get 火 Karma
5- come back to compound your multiplier
