
Thought I was late to the Bitcoin party but turns out I arrived early. Just late to CT. Liquidity hunter and crypto scalper extraordinaire #RetiredOnCrypto @ 27
NFA / DYOR
Joined May 2021
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Use any emoji you want on CT 馃搱馃殌馃帀馃コ馃く馃槑馃ぉ馃槤馃檶馃挵馃弳馃弲馃挦馃敟馃挜馃挴 just don't use 馃 that's just rude, no need to flaunt how much money we're making with #crypto 馃槄 #RetiredOnCrypto
Just want to thank everyone who was long for all the profits. Your foolishness pays for my lifestyle. Cannot say thank you enough 馃榿
If your primary interaction with the real world on a daily basis is social media then, sorry to say, you're a f'n idiot and have already embraced Idiocracy
Spending less time on Twitter will dramatically improve both your trading + mental health...if you ever give it a chance 馃槈
Any of y'all remember that brief altseason in early 2024? Or do you really think it's up-only for shitcoins from here? 馃
Serious question
Market has gotten boring af again but tbh patience is the hardest part of trading. Knowing when not to is just as important as knowing when to act, if not more 馃槈
How do you watch perps vs. spot behavior?
What platforms do you use?
Why is it beneficial to watch this?
What does it mean?
Get asked this under every tweet so please just bookmark this long tweet.
This is probably the best detailed explanation of this you will find on here with nuances.
Here's the overarching answer.
If we break it down, what I like to keep an eye on is the following:
> aggressive perps
> aggressive spot
> passive spot
there are many platforms to gauge this behavior. Just remember that there's a lot of fragmentation and also inaccurate ways of reading this because it can tend to get noisy.
Your read will be based on assumptions as well as a lot of screen time (when x + y happens it leads to z happening, which points to ...)
Outlier behavior
So when we parse these participants out remember there is hedging behavior, there is behavior that you will see where someone might suppress the spot side to get their own perps positioning filled etc. Glazing over this to point out that this isn't just as straight forward as meets the eyes at first. But over time your assumed read will improve.
Why Spots vs. Perps
I want you to think of perps positioning as the "weaker" hand because you can lever up tremendously and have your liquidation 0.1% away from your entry (think exaggerated case) which means this positioning is liable to enter, exit and get vaporized fast when price isn't carrying in the desired direciton. Now you throw in an understanding of crowded positioning in the same area and it gives you the exact spot where if positioning is pressed it will unwind with haste.
Think of spot behavior as the whale which has the little fish that stick to its underside for the ride (the perps positioning). In other words, the real strength or weakness of a move is ultimately determined by spot follow-through (or lack there of)
understood? let's move on to what you're actually reading this for and probably skipped the rest to read.
There are many platforms to do this but here is one way I quickly scan this behavior:
1. Coinalyze
You can go on coinalyze for aggressive spot and perps behavior - both aggregated as well as parsing out exchanges (binance, cb etc.)
i.e. you can watch what both aggressive perps and aggressive spot are doing through the move as well as watching what is happening on individual exchanges.
Do this on LTF (I typically do not go above 5-15 mins here).
2. MMT
For passive spot, you can go to MMT and watch the spot orderbook skew which shows you how fat the supply/demand is on 2.5% and 5% depth.
The indicators are OB depth and OB pressure bands as shown in image. You can go to settings and change the exchanges as well as looking at spot vs. perps.
Think of this as a "wall" or a "cushion" when approaching from below or above.
Also, at the risk of oversimplifying I want you to visualize the aggressive positioning as "canonballs" when price is approaching a skewed book i.e. aggression can eat away at this skew if it is adequate enough or fall short.
two scenarios combined with context -
BTC is ranging and is trading towards range high for the 3rd time. Short squeeze takes out the range high into a stacked passive spot book skewed towards the ask side and aggressive perps start buying while aggressive spot starts selling. More likely than not this will revert.
BTC is pulling back into an OB that is skewed towards the buy side on passive spot. However aggressive perps continue to long a 1 min grind down and aggressive spot continues to sell unwinding that positioning into new lows. Good chance this passive wall will get eaten through unless this behavior stabilizes.
Keep an eye on the extent of the passive ob skew as well.
When you combine this with areas of confluence the pieces of the puzzle will start to come together.
ok enough yap.
hope this helps.
This Guy knows what's up retweeted
$BTC
It's a cruel world where BTC failing at the yearly open coincides with the biggest rip higher in US yields all year
2s +15bp. 10s +15.5bp. 30s +10bp. DXY +0.55%.
That's not a crypto story. That's conditions tightening again, and BTC reprices it first.
Two days ago the setup needed to hold. It didn't.
If you're following me expecting charts, pls know that I stopped tweeting charts a long time ago. The best I can offer now is forewarnings and cryptolitical satire 馃槒
This dead cat bounce seems to have awakened the bulls. Never understood why CT gets the most bullish at resistance and so bearish at support. SM + short-term memory is the reason 95% of traders fail imo
Refuse to end my summer early just because you think the bottom is in, sorry
Trading against retail is easy af, albeit with some skills required 馃槈
Trading against Trump is ridiculously tricky and a skill few non-insiders will ever achieve
The real question here is not about those 20x Twitter pw reset emails you received or who to blame but rather about rather how quickly Bold animated it 馃
He's either the culprit or the greatest quickest artist of our time
Mad respect either way tbh
Sorry but if you didn't take profits and/or short the biggest short squeeze in crypto history, if you literally thought up-only started, then sadly you are one of the ppl paying for my privileged lifestyle
I will not apologize for this
Education + humor is all I can offer 馃槒














