I talk baseball on Launch Angle podcast - the world’s 2nd best fantasy baseball podcast. 2016 NFBC Main Event overall winner. Sometimes I talk Canadian politics
Toronto/Ottawa
Joined March 2008
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Rob Silver retweeted
CRIC compliance is about disclosure, not method and credit to Build Canada for publishing unweighted bases. That’s how we can see the problem: 58% of raw respondents from Toronto & East York (34% after weighting), non-grads weighted ×3, ... The real MoE was closer to ±4.5
When you look more broadly than one cherry-picked poll for comparison, the polling story of this election is actually quite interesting.
The pattern across all 11 of the final week poll results shows that the older the fieldwork, the bigger the miss. This points to a significant late stage shift in sentiment back towards Chow, not bad polling.
We polled the Toronto mayoral race in the field from Oct 11-16 and found Bradford +4.7. The final result had Chow +13 on the night. That means out of the 11 final-week polls, ours was the farthest off. If I had a do-over, we should definitely have also run a Wave 2 poll Oct 24-25.
I'm confident in our methodology, which is the same as many of the other pollsters on this list, and has been reviewed and validated by CRIC (the industry standards body for public opinion research).
I'm excited to continue to scale Build Canada's polling operations. We have big plans to do so. And I'm even more excited to be able to field polls at a price that democratizes access to public opinion research.
We're just getting started.
#cdnpoli #topoli
Rob Silver retweeted
El-Sayed campaign statement: "This ad is not affiliated in any way with the Abdul for Senate campaign. Abdul is focused on pushing back against Trump’s agenda that is raising prices for Michiganders. No one speaks for Abdul but himself and his campaign." #MISEN
This type of fearmongering about Israel is wrong. It is not a winning strategy for any state. It does nothing to help Michigan Democrats win up and down the ballot in eight days. Do we need to lower costs by building more homes, securing people’s health care, and creating a fairer federal tax code? Yes, we do!! How we do so is not by blaming the high costs of our goods on the only Jewish homeland in the world. I want to see Democrats succeed at every level, and that means keeping our focus on lowering costs for Michigan families and reining in this out-of-control President.
Rob Silver retweeted
I asked ChatGPT to depict what a Cheesecake Factory would look like if Saddam Hussein applied his tastes to it and... yeah. This is very Trumpy.
Rob Silver retweeted
Having been in these moments, I can visualize the focus group when someone turned the whole room against him over his playing tennis, leading to this ad 🤣
I watched a woman turn an entire focus group once over one candidate’s choice of food at a BBQ (sadly never made that ad)
Rob Silver retweeted
I don't know how teams can Defend Barnes and Kawhi at the same time. They both need Big, athletic and Starting level defenders. Most NBA teams only have 1
People talk 'Double Bigs'...but this Raptor Monster is fast, powerful, athletic and put up a lot of shots. They drive hard
Rob Silver retweeted
I have the same as Pollara as of today (10-point lead for Chow).
Now, if only people over 55 years of age vote, then Chow and Bradford are statistically tied.
Also, Etobicoke York and North York always have better turnout compared to Scarborough, so that also makes it a bit better for Bradford.
Regardless, I think Chow wins by more than 5-points.
🤷
Rob Silver retweeted
with 12 days until the midterm elections, the entire republican party has coalesced around attacking a woman for having been raped by her stepfather when she was twelve
Trump: "Vivek Ramaswamy put up a very powerful Ad about a mother saying that her daughter, Amy Acton, who is running for Governor of Ohio, is a liar, and much worse. The Press, in a concerted and well coordinated attack, is trying to get Vivek Ramaswamy to 'take down the Ad.' Frankly, anybody whose mother spoke about a daughter in that way would normally lead to the daughter being precluded from serving in Office"
Rob Silver retweeted
40% of patients suffering from dementia have “VBD” (vocally disruptive behavior)
They are sudden, disruptive and surprising to the patient.
Which is why he seems stunned for a moment.
The reason they keep giving him the MoCA test, is they know he is in severe cognitive decline.
He is a national security risk.
Rob Silver retweeted
BREAKING: US military aircraft are being evacuated from Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, per initial reports.
This is a major imminent strikes indicator.
Rob Silver retweeted
impressive from $TSLA
- miss on revenue
- 2.6% operating margins
- energy, their big growth driver is -16%
- automotive revenue -3%
This is a car company who gaslights people into thinking it's an energy company and here we are with car sales down and energy sales down too.
Rob Silver retweeted
JD is saying Amy Acton was not raped as a little girl. Even though there are court documents reviewed by *National Review* that confirm details of her story. Even though Acton’s brother backs her story. Vance has a daughter. But like Bernie Moreno, Vance is such a sycophant that he can’t even be a father first for two minutes. It’s always politics and always the most vile politics. Just an abject failure of a man and a father.
Rob Silver retweeted
The same people who tell us to "get over" the Epstein files are now telling you to "stop whining" over an ad that attacks a woman by recruiting her estranged mom, who is complicit in years of childhood sexual abuse.
I’m a Republican, but our party has a serious problem.
#OhioGovernor
CNN: JD Vance tells Republicans to “stop whining” over Vivek Ramaswamy’s ad
“Politics is a tough business, and my message to my fellow elected Republicans is: if you actually believe in the things you say you believe in, stop whining about an advertisement and go win the race in 13 days.”
Rob Silver retweeted
JD Vance, author of “Communion: Finding My Way Back to Faith,” has a closing midterm message for Republicans: stop whining about child rape
Rob Silver retweeted
Jesus fucking Christ. This is the most vile and disgusting thing I have ever heard in politics. Vivek is mocking a Amy Acton for being a victim of childhood abuse and sexual assault.
Rob Silver retweeted
In a functioning society he would have gone to jail after funding secured and this nonsense wouldn’t have gotten to this point of cartoonish fraud
At some point, this level of hubris (confidently predicting 2027 $SPCX revenue at $500 Billion to $1 Trillion), becomes indistinguishable from a scam.
Because where will that revenue come from?
Elon is assuming there is infinite demand for data center rentals at $50 per watt per year, even though it costs less than $50 per watt to build a data center. His assumption is that if SpaceX can put up 10-20GW of DCs x $50 per watt, that = $500-$1,000 Billion of revenue.
I think at best, it's irresponsible to set such expectations with your shareholders, and at worst, it's very hard to tell it apart from what a scammer might say.
Rob Silver retweeted
Fun fact:
California and Alaska are closer to having a majority for secession than Alberta.
Alaska would be a great addition to Canada, so Carney and the Canadian government should encourage them to go ahead.
Rob Silver retweeted
.@elonmusk you don’t have to wait for a subpoena, you can just come in on your own.
WSJ scoop: Musk was the one who ordered the Starshield slowdown that blindsided Ukraine’s defenses. wsj.com/world/ukraine-starli…
