Robert Lowery

$IREN vs $CIFR have two very different but also similar technical structures. Both have endured substantial corrections amid the broader weakness in AI infrastructure, but an important distinction in where each sits relative to its long-term technical structure. $IREN hit its macro 1.272 fib at $69 before this correction. A correction of this magnitude isn't particularly unusual, especially following the first test of an important macro extension. $CIFR fell short of its 1.272 extension at $42 and has now retraced to its 0.887 fib which converges with a significant historical demand zone and the vicinity of its longer-term ascending trendline. From a purely technical perspective, CIFR's is already testing, and marginally undercutting, an area of support that IREN has yet to revisit on a comparable basis. For IREN, that equivalent 0.887 retracement sits near $19.40, roughly 30% below current levels, and coincides with the broader trendline structure I've drawn. That doesn't mean IREN needs to trade there. But it illustrates why I see a more immediately identifiable technical risk/reward setup developing in CIFR. Sentiment across AI infrastructure has deteriorated considerably, and we're seeing the kind of fear and volatility that historically accompanies important inflection points. But the indicators I track aren't yet suggesting that the selling is conclusively over. Both of these have lost important monthly EMAs like the 21m EMA which in my experience ends a trend. IREN would need to reclaim $34 by month-end and CIFR $13. Until that happens, one needs to remain open to further weakness in months ahead, even if we experience a sharp relief rally. And yet, when I consider what these businesses are building, their expanding contractual commitments, and the earnings potential emerging over the next 12-18 months, it's difficult not to be interested at these prices. It reminds me of April 2025, when several names across the sector lost important technical levels, sentiment collapsed, and what appeared to be a breakdown ultimately developed into one of the more attractive entry opportunities of the cycle. I've followed this sector long enough to recognize that the greatest asymmetries come when the prevailing narrative becomes overwhelmingly negative and price begins discounting outcomes considerably worse than what the underlying fundamentals are showing. It's not supposed to be comfortable. But I do think we're in an area where the longer-term risk/reward is becoming increasingly compelling, particularly for investors who can look beyond the next several months. Just be disciplined in your accumulation, position sizing, and be patient.