Rodney K. Nickens Jr., J.D.

Blaming Kamala Harris for Donald Trump’s win in 2024 is myopic, to put it kindly. No Democratic candidate was going to win in 2024. The party was under a historically unpopular incumbent who had a disastrous debate that, though a fluke, shattered the optics of his acuity. Under Biden, there was a real risk of sub-200 EC votes. Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia were all in play. It would’ve been a wipeout had he stayed in. She turned it into a nail-biter, without her own staff, in only 3 months, after being silenced and sidelined for four years. Add to that — administrations globally faced a massive anti-incumbency wave because of COVID-19. America most certainly was not unique to that. But Kamala Harris outperformed every incumbent worldwide in the first year since WWII in which every incumbent party lost vote share. Kamala Harris saved seats in both the House and Senate. She was within 115K flipped votes across 3 states of winning the presidency. The election was decided by 229,766 votes across Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin out of about 155.2M cast nationally — just 0.14%. It was the closest presidential election this century. It ranks among the three closest presidential elections in American history. The entire “she can’t win” argument is merely based in misogynoir so commonly levied against her in favour of genuine criticism. She will run. She will win. And people will be forced to accept that, one way or another.

A few notes and cautions on 2028: There is a very real (and often ignored) difference between who might make a good president and who has the potential to win the nomination. People like Buttigieg and Kelly are incredible politicians, but numerically, they don't have the numbers necessary to win the nomination if polls stay even remotely consistent with where they are now. And you can't win the general unless you can become the nominee. Harris has been consistently achieving 40-50% with Black Democrats and 30-40% with Hispanic Democrats. She commands almost every demographic, across nearly every region. She will be very difficult to beat. That isn't merely my opinion, it's math. Also — people like Talarico, Ossoff, etc are not going to leave their newly elected positions to run for president. You can wishcast it all you want, but it almost definitely isn't happening. For folks like James or Jon to leave their very important posts to run for positions they aren't qualified for would be poor politics, and just a very, very stupid decision. There will be plenty of qualified candidates running. But people like AOC, Ossoff, etc (though I really do like the former, and love the latter) aren't qualified enough this cycle to repair the damage done by Trump and his administration. It is Harris' to lose. And she is immensely popular and helpful among the party, as demonstrated last night.

@SymoneSanders46 to @KamalaHarris: "I have heard a lot from folks that your attention to them on the ground was helpful. Scott Colom told me that directly, that like, the fact that you came down there, that you were invested in Mississippi, it didn't just make a difference to him, it made a difference to the people on the ground. @EugeneDaniels2: "Abdul El-Sayed said the same thing." @SymoneSanders46: "Yes, that you were an important factor for people."