@Sam_Tims

Lead analyst at @jrf_uk for social security and economics. Previously @NEF @policy_practice

 London
Joined January 2013
  • Tweets335
  • Following690
  • Followers766
72Media
📢Your essential guide to poverty in the UK is out! When Labour came to power, very deep poverty & child poverty were at record levels. Some vital changes have been made- like scrapping the two child limit- but that needs to be the beginning not the end of their ambition.
Joseph Rowntree Foundation@jrf_ukJan 27
Poverty is deepening. 🔎 Our #UKPoverty2026 report was launched this morning. People in very deep poverty now make up the biggest group of people in poverty, at 6.8 million people. This is unacceptable for the fifth richest country in the world, and it has consequences.
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Like all too many children in the UK today, I grew up poor. I am no longer poor, and I am delighted to pay higher taxes to reduce - or ideally eliminate - child poverty. 1/3
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Ahead of a crucial vote on cuts to disability benefits, our new evidence casts doubt on whether jobs are even available for disabled people facing cuts 📢 The analysis found that the parts of the country among the hardest hit by the cuts have fewer job opportunities 1/3
"Cutting disabled people's benefits won't magically create suitable jobs, particularly in those parts of the country that have long had weaker jobs markets. It's little wonder so many disable people are fearful of the impact of the government's cuts" - Abby Jitendra, Principal Policy Adviser

ALT "Cutting disabled people's benefits won't magically create suitable jobs, particularly in those parts of the country that have long had weaker jobs markets. It's little wonder so many disable people are fearful of the impact of the government's cuts" - Abby Jitendra, Principal Policy Adviser

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Last week the government proposed cuts to disability and long-term sickness benefits. These cuts will leave some disabled people significantly worse off. 📢 By 2029/30, someone that loses PIP daily living and LCWRA will be over £800 per month worse off 1/4
A chart showing that a single person losing PIP daily living and LCWRA could lose £818 per month which is 58% of their income Monthly income after housing cost (AHC) in 2029/30 before and after proposed changes for new claimants. This is based off modelling of a single person over 25, unable to work due to disability/health conditions. Under existing rules they would be eligible for Universal Credit (UC) Limited Capability for Work-Related Activity (LCWRA), Personal Independence Payments (PIP) standard daily living, PIP standard mobility. Under proposed reforms they would lose UC LCWRA and PIP daily living.

ALT A chart showing that a single person losing PIP daily living and LCWRA could lose £818 per month which is 58% of their income Monthly income after housing cost (AHC) in 2029/30 before and after proposed changes for new claimants. This is based off modelling of a single person over 25, unable to work due to disability/health conditions. Under existing rules they would be eligible for Universal Credit (UC) Limited Capability for Work-Related Activity (LCWRA), Personal Independence Payments (PIP) standard daily living, PIP standard mobility. Under proposed reforms they would lose UC LCWRA and PIP daily living.

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Looking at the wording in the OBR Budget doc alongside Reeve's speech, it seems like the government may have committed to making the equivalent saving as projected in the previous government's plans for WCA reform, but without necessarily pursuing exactly the same changes
Quote from the OBR: "The Government is considering changes to the delivery of reforms to Work Capability Assessments which were announced at Autumn Statement 2023, including through fundamental reforms of the health and disability benefits system early next year. Savings related to the reforms, which are due to take effect from 2025-26 are reflected in our forecast, and we will incorporate the impacts of any further reform once they are sufficiently certain."

ALT Quote from the OBR: "The Government is considering changes to the delivery of reforms to Work Capability Assessments which were announced at Autumn Statement 2023, including through fundamental reforms of the health and disability benefits system early next year. Savings related to the reforms, which are due to take effect from 2025-26 are reflected in our forecast, and we will incorporate the impacts of any further reform once they are sufficiently certain."

Tom Pollard@PollardTom30 Oct 2024
Disappointing to see the government press ahead with Conservative plans to tighten the Work Capability Assessment eligibility criteria Many people will miss out on extra financial support & be exposed to conditionality but, according to the OBR, be unlikely to move into work
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NEW microsimulation modelling from @jrf_uk. Following #Budget2024 and the latest OBR forecasts, we find average disposable incomes are now set to fall across the parliament. By October 2029, the average family is set to be £770/yr worse off in real terms compared with today. 1/
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Meeting ambitious growth and employment targets doesn't, on its own, reduce poverty this parliament. #Budget2024
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Reducing maximum debt deductions from Universal Credit, increasing the earnings threshold for Carers Allowance & extending the Household Support Fund are all welcome, but none really address the fundamental inadequacy of our social security system & the knock-on impact of this
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After over a decade of our public services being cut to the bone, @RachelReevesMP has the opportunity to put them back on the right track 📈 Yet the @OBR_UK's assumptions about how govt spending affects growth may hold back significant change by the £bns 💸 Let me explain ⬇
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If you're in #Liverpool on Sunday for #labconf24 - or just interested in inclusive development, devolution & drinks - do join us at the Crowne Plaza City Centre at 6pm for this discussion with @Miatsf @josephpowell @sarahlonglands @KarimFatehi @londonchamber
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Record high rates of economic inactivity due to disability & health have led to calls for increased requirements to seek work But my new @NEF paper argues that DWP could do much more to engage people with support on a voluntary basis, with better results neweconomics.org/2024/08/bet…

Better engagement for better outcomes

Taking a rapid test and learn approach to engagement with people out of work due to disabilities and poor health

neweconomics.org
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In recent years, increasingly strict conditions have been applied to benefits – often justified by public support. But is this the case? New research from @NEF dug beneath the surface of headline public support to understand perceptions of benefits conditionality. 🧵
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Good to see @NEF research from last year referenced in this BBC piece on 'bidding wars' We found that 4 in 10 households starting a new private rental tenancy in the previous 12 months were paying above the advertised rent - on average, £1,200 a year more bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx00…

Keir Starmer: Labour would pass law to end renter 'bidding wars'

Keir Starmer says he wants to stop landlords encouraging higher rent offers to secure properties.

bbc.co.uk
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What would you guess the basic rate of Universal Credit is as a percentage of a full-time National Living Wage salary? New polling for @NEF by @OpiniumResearch shows that, on average, the public estimate it to be 48%, but say it should be 53%. In reality it's just 23%
Chart showing that the basic rate of unemployment benefit is actually 23% of a National Living Wage salary but that people, on average, think it is 48% and should be 53%

ALT Chart showing that the basic rate of unemployment benefit is actually 23% of a National Living Wage salary but that people, on average, think it is 48% and should be 53%

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“You can’t really have a serious child poverty strategy that doesn’t involve getting rid of the two-child limit" I spoke to @GuardianHeather for this piece on @TheIFS research showing 670k more children will be impacted by the end of the next parliament theguardian.com/politics/art…

Starmer faces further calls for Labour to axe two-child benefit cap

IFS research shows 670,000 more children will be hit by policy by end of next parliament if limit stays in place

theguardian.com
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Sam Tims retweeted
NEF@NEF6 Jun 2024
145,000 children in England go to bed each night without a home of their own. The inadequate supply of social housing should be treated as a national emergency. The next government must overhaul the housing system to deliver the high-quality, affordable, secure homes we all need.
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NEF's new research comes to the same conclusion as the @APPGPoverty inquiry did last year – the system is designed so that people are pushed into destitution by debt repayments.
NEF@NEF3 Jun 2024
Yesterday, we published new research by @Sam_Tims and @HollieWright_ which revealed that the DWP is taking £1.6bn a year from low-income households for debt repayments, trapping people in poverty & debt. You can read the full blog here and coverage below: neweconomics.org/2024/06/ben…

Benefits debt deductions trapping people in poverty and debt

DWP taking £1.6bn a year from low-income households for debt repayments

neweconomics.org
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Sam Tims retweeted
NEF@NEF3 Jun 2024
Yesterday, we published new research by @Sam_Tims and @HollieWright_ which revealed that the DWP is taking £1.6bn a year from low-income households for debt repayments, trapping people in poverty & debt. You can read the full blog here and coverage below: neweconomics.org/2024/06/ben…

Benefits debt deductions trapping people in poverty and debt

DWP taking £1.6bn a year from low-income households for debt repayments

neweconomics.org
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New @NEF analysis by @Sam_Tims & @HollieWright_ shows the scale & impact of automatic debt deductions being taken from Universal Credit An inadequate social security safety net is being weakened even further for 2.3m households Here's why it's happening & why it matters... 🧵
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Sam Tims retweeted
NEF@NEF22 Apr 2024
✈️ Help us to accelerate emissions reduction in the aviation sector; 🤑 Balance access to air travel so that it is no longer the domain of a wealthy few; ✊ Raise crucial funds for national and international green transition and climate justice. 1/3 donate.biggive.org/campaign/…
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