Talking my book. DYODD

Joined November 2017
Mazdak Mostafa-Sani retweeted
Share price now 16,85cad. Value investing at its best. Although I sold too early off course. Happy for the once that did hold it all the way. $vle.to
Valeura Energy $VEl #VLU is a deep value case that is likely to re-rate. Before the recent acquisition $VLE had cash on hand 40m$ which is equivalent of 0.58CAD/share and a huge deep tight gas asset in Turkey. In this thread I will explain why I am buying $VLE shares.
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Taking a starter position in $tga.l .. the outlook for thermal coal looks good and thungela has the best torque for a higher price! Cash position at 30% of marketcap also helps in markets like these!
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Mazdak Mostafa-Sani retweeted
#Valeura Energy Q3 2026 ops update: production of 22.1 mbbls/d is on plan, price realisations US$97.4/bbl, cash increased to US$385 million with no debt. $VLE $VLERF #oil #Thailand valeuraenergy.com/q3-2026-op…
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I was burned last time I bought $lgo.us at $1.80, but I can really not resist it at $0.5.. So I 6 x'ed my position this time around - R/R at this level and last developments are just too good to resist..
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Mazdak Mostafa-Sani retweeted
$USOIL $CL Almost every week I have to remind some of you: stop trading the narrative and trade the chart. Trump, manipulation, headlines, whatever, sure, the micro can get noisy, but zoom out and this structure has been developing beautifully for years... A clean weekly breakout above roughly $110–112 would be a major structural trigger and, on this long-term setup, opens the door to a completely different oil regime. $400 is the extreme measured-move / long-term possibility, not the next target, but the chart is absolutely telling you not to dismiss it... Trade the chart. Invest in the structure. Ignore the narrative...
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Mazdak Mostafa-Sani retweeted
#Valeura Energy and #PTTEP to proceed with gas development at the #Bussabong field; Valeura’s first organic #gas development in #Thailand, a repeatable template for the eventual full development of the field. valeuraenergy.com/bussabong-… $VLE $VLERF
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THIS CHART GOES BACK 100 YEARS… AND WE’VE ONLY BEEN HERE THREE TIMES BEFORE. This is Oil vs the Dow Jones Industrial Average on yearly candles. Basically, when this chart is this low, oil is historically cheap relative to US equities. Now look at the previous major lows: 1929. 1966. 1999. And now… 2026. Those dates aren't exactly random. Each of the previous periods occurred around major turning points for US equities and was followed by a very difficult long-term period for stocks, alongside major rotations between asset classes. Equties had dead money for over a decade. Now look at the technicals. The yearly RSI is sitting around 40, an area that has historically acted as support for this ratio. Then look at Stochastic RSI. The previous major oversold extremes on this chart occurred around 1929, 1966 and 1999. And now we're back there again. But here's where things get really interesting. Look at the small chart I've added in the top right. That's the fundamental side of the equation. It combines a range of US equity valuation measures including trailing P/E, forward P/E, CAPE, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, Tobin's Q and market cap-to-GDP. And what periods jump out as major valuation extremes? 1929. 1966. 1999. And the current period. So we've got two completely different ways of looking at the market telling a very similar story. The technical chart is telling us energy is historically cheap relative to equities. The fundamental data is telling us US equities are historically expensive. Coincidence? Maybe. But this is exactly why I love combining technicals, fundamentals and macro rather than looking at any one thing in isolation. Does this mean US equities crash tomorrow? No. Does it mean oil goes straight up from here? No. This is a big-picture macro chart. I'm not looking at what happens next week. I'm looking at where capital could rotate over the next 5 to 10 years. And when I keep seeing the same message across oil, commodities, bonds, valuations and relative-strength charts like this, I'm paying attention. It's also one of the major reasons I'm personally very cautious about US equities at these valuations and far more interested in the opportunities developing across energy and commodities. 1929. 1966. 1999. 2026. History doesn't have to repeat. But when everything aligns it's rarely coincidence!
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Mazdak Mostafa-Sani retweeted
Giant sucking sound coming out of China: Chinese visible oil inventories fell 35MM Bbls last week...the fastest week-over-week pace on record (!), and are now at their lowest levels since May 2025.
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OIL IS SETTING UP ALMOST EXACTLY LIKE THE LAST MAJOR CYCLE. Zoom out. From roughly 1983 to 2003, oil spent about 20 years going sideways. For two decades, it basically went nowhere. Then the structure finally changed. Oil bottomed around $12, broke out of that huge range and eventually ran to around $140. More than a 10x move. Imagine telling someone when oil was sitting around $12 to $20 that it could eventually trade above $100. Most people would have thought you were crazy. Now look at where we are today. Since the massive run into 2008, oil has spent nearly 19 years inside another huge sideways structure. And this is where the chart gets really interesting. These are six-month candles. Every single candle represents half a year, so we're ignoring all the daily noise and looking at the much bigger cycle. I've circled each major bullish turn in the Stochastic RSI. Historically, when this indicator has turned bullish from these lower levels, oil has gone on to experience a multi-year bullish move. But the latest signal is different. The previous three major turns in this cycle came from around the huge $35 support zone. This time, oil didn't get anywhere near it. It formed a higher low around $58 and the six-month momentum indicator has turned higher again. Now go back to 2002. That's almost exactly what happened before the last major breakout. Oil stopped returning to the bottom of its long-term range, formed a higher low, momentum turned higher, and then eventually broke through the ceiling that had contained price for decades. Oil went from roughly $20 to $140. Today, we're sitting underneath another enormous resistance zone around $100 to $110. My view is that we're approaching the same stage of the cycle. If oil can finally break and hold above that long-term resistance, the entire technical picture changes. That's why I've been talking so much about energy lately. I'm not looking at what oil does tomorrow, next week or even next month. I'm watching a structure that's nearly two decades in the making. And if this plays out anything like the previous cycle, the bigger move may only just be getting started. Keep reading throughout coming weeks. Much more evidence to come.
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Mazdak Mostafa-Sani retweeted
Above the 'magic zone' (predicted in advance by TA) - is when the chickens come home to roost. All of the TA weight of evidence points to a break above that level & MUCH higher oil prices. I said it last year...I don't know what 'real world' event is coming, but it is coming.
To all technical analysis non-believers. Please explain how I knew (with VERY high levels of confidence) that price would a) move to the red box & b) move down when it hit it. I'll wait...
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Mazdak Mostafa-Sani retweeted
Great info from Valeura's IR about the last 2 announcements, thanks to #Gizzy on @ceodotca $VLE $VLE.TO
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Mazdak Mostafa-Sani retweeted
𝗘𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗼𝗻 𝗫 𝗦𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝗦𝗮𝘂𝗱𝗶 𝗔𝗿𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗮'𝘀 𝗣𝗶𝗽𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗪𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗕𝗲 𝗙𝗶𝘅𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻 "𝗗𝗮𝘆𝘀". 𝗜 𝗛𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗸𝗲𝗱 𝗧𝗵𝗼𝘀𝗲 𝗗𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘁𝘀. 𝗧𝗿𝘆 𝗢𝗻𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗧𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵𝘀. First, let me say plainly that I love the desert and the Arab cultures. But it does shape a timeline the media does not understand because they are talking about something they have never experienced. Lots of people on @X are saying the Saudi East-West pipeline and its pumping stations will be back online in days!?! I have worked these deserts, in Saudi Arabia and across the Middle East, and that is not how it goes. Even if it is "Expedited", you are still looking at a month at the very least, and realistically one to three. You have to first understand what the work actually is. This is not a "gas station attendant" tightening a few bolts or replacing a motor. A pumping station hit by a ballistic missile has to be completely demolished, cleared, re-engineered and rebuilt, from the ground and concrete upwards, often with newer technology because the stations are decades old anyways and the original parts no longer exist. That means engineering, contractors, subcontractors and sub-subcontractors, each waiting on the one below them, each relying on a supply chain that is nothing like the robust, on-time machine people imagine in Germany or Norway or the West. Now layer the desert summer heat on top of that (we are still in September where the desert heat burns your feet even with shoes), and this is where the delays compound. If you are not short on supplies, your truck is stuck in the sand. If the truck moves, you are waiting on water, or waiting for the temperature to drop, because September in the Saudi desert is so brutal that crews can only work at night or in short bursts before exhaustion and medical emergencies set in. The skilled labor is largely foreign, Pakistani, Afghan, Indian and others, working under experienced engineers who must be flown in and coordinated and some of those highly skilled workers likely left when the missiles started months ago. So how do you convince them to come back? Sure you have some of your own engineers but the highly skilled ones are always brought in from overseas. And the rhythm of the day is cultural. There are the Prayer times that take thirty to forty five minutes each, several times a day, if they end up working during the day. There is a midday rest or naps. These are not flaws, they are how the society works, but they are real hours that Western timelines never account for. Then the piece almost no one has factored in. The ports are blocked via Strait of Hormuz and Bab Al Mandeeb. The heavy equipment a rebuild like this needs, the kind that normally arrives by sea ordered from overseas, cannot come by sea now. It has to be airlifted, which is far more expensive, far slower, and limited by what fits on an aircraft. Some of this machinery is too large to fly intact, so it must be disassembled, flown in pieces, and reassembled on site. Every one of those steps is a new bottleneck stacked on the last. I like to look at things from an order of effects point of view so; 1. FIRST, the immediate one, the repair itself drags out to weeks or months, not days, so Saudi export capacity stays crippled far longer than the market expects. 2. Second, the market one, that prolonged outage keeps upward pressure on oil and shipping costs, because the bypass everyone assumed would reopen quickly does not. 3. Third, the strategic one, and this is the part the optimists miss, even a fully repaired pipeline sits under the same threat that broke it. Why would the Houthis not simply hit it again, you bet they will. They have shown they are less about careful calculation than the IRGC and more about action. A rebuilt station is just a fresh target, which means the real constraint is NOT the repair time at all, perhaps it never was. It is that you cannot durably fix a node your enemy can strike at will at any time of day regardless of the weather conditions.... So ignore the days talk. Between the engineering, the desert, the blocked ports and the standing threat of another strike, this is a one-to-three month problem at best, and possibly one that cannot be permanently solved while the war continues at all. You know what to do, amplify this Signal. 𝗦𝗜𝗚𝗡𝗔𝗟, 𝗡𝗢𝗧 𝗡𝗢𝗜𝗦𝗘!!
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Mazdak Mostafa-Sani retweeted
ATB with an OP and tp raise to $19.5 on $VLE $VLE.TO
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Mazdak Mostafa-Sani retweeted
Valeura is poised to reach new multi-year highs today - great run! $VLE.TO
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Mazdak Mostafa-Sani retweeted
#Valeura announces exploration #discovery near Manora and successful development and appraisal drilling campaign on Jasmine. valeuraenergy.com/suraphi-ex… $VLE $VLERF #Suraphi #oil #Thailand
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Mazdak Mostafa-Sani retweeted
Cabinet of the Government of #Thailand has granted executive approval for the transfer of 40% working interest from #PTTEP to #Valeura in blocks G1/65 and G3/65. valeuraenergy.com/approval-o… $VLE $VLERF #Farmin
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Mazdak Mostafa-Sani retweeted
Replying to @lasse108
$vle.to is one of the cleaner $150-oil setups in small/mid-cap E&P. No debt. Large net cash (~US$316m at Q2’26). Can fund growth without dilution or locked-in hedges. ~22 kbbl/d from operated Gulf of Thailand fields (Jasmine, Nong Yao, Wassana, Manora). Low opex (~US$26/bbl adj.). At $150, incremental barrels drop hard to FCF. Unhedged. Full upside. New RCF has no mandatory hedging. Thailand is royalty + tax, not a high-take PSC, so price spikes flow through. Q2’26 realisations already US$105.8/bbl. Sales priced off Dubai + premium, not just Brent. In the recent disruption Dubai printed $140–160. Thailand imports ~92% of its crude, mostly GCC. Local barrels get a security-of-supply bid. Growth is coming online. Wassana redevelopment accelerated: CPP install Oct’26, first oil ~start of Q2’27, ~7.5 kbbl/d plateau, extra ~430 kbbl in 2027 vs the old plan. Nong Yao multi-laterals already adding. Tax pool still matters. ~US$283m of Thai III loss carry-forwards (Wassana, Nong Yao, Manora) is offsetting 50% PITA. Jasmine sits outside the pool. SRB can still hit. At $150 the shield burns faster, but near-term after-tax FCF is stronger than a fully taxed name. Partner quality matters. 40% farm-in with PTTEP (Thai NOC) on G1/65 and G3/65: 9x acreage, 15 existing discoveries, infra-led oil + gas optionality next to Bongkot and Nong Yao. PTTEP operates those blocks. Valeura keeps operatorship on the producing assets. Asia-facing offtake. Short-haul to refiners if Hormuz/GCC barrels are constrained. Turkey deep-gas JV with Transatlantic is longer-dated optionality, not the $150 thesis. Risks: Thailand concentration, Wassana CPP execution, tax-pool burn at high prices, and oil can always fall. Not advice. DYOR.
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