A year is not a lot of time. It's hard to believe this is happening, but it is. I'm anxious to see how well the new world-model's training translated from FSD to the humanoid, and how they will integrate an LLM with that.
The hardware will be impressive, but it's the OS that's going to steal the show. 🤖
Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."
“Waiting to exhale!”
Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."
Elon says most of the Fremont line for 1M Optimus a year is already installed, and he calls the ramp an S curve with a slow start.
A slow start on a line that size makes sense. I'd expect the first robots to work in Tesla's own factories, doing real jobs and finding the problems before anyone outside gets one.
When the curve turns, 1M a year is about 2,740 robots every day.
Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."
!!👍
Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."
特斯拉的Optimus延后毫不意外，我预测Optimus比老马的预测还要难，要花的时间更长。我之前看到一个推友的回复，说FSD是只有视觉输入，而Optimus除了视觉，还有触觉输入。这个在之前老马点赞的那篇文章里写的比较明确了，即如果靠视觉和文字无法实现AGI，那么再加入触觉。如果到时候还没有实现AGI，再想别的办法。目前的Grok，ChatGPT实际上只是大语言模型, 它们只能通过分析已有的文字资料来得出结论，不能像人类一样通过看看视频来得出结论，或者把二者比较互相证伪。所以grok比较容易受猪霉影响，因为他自己不会看视频分析，缺乏对物理世界发生的事情的判断。不过Cybercab已经基本上稳了，稳了才有钱养Optimus嘛。未来如果有AGI,那么一定是以Optimus这种形式出现的。不管别人怎么想，我会耐着性子等。👍💪
后记，不要拿宇树，波士顿动力，Figure跟Optimus比，它们都不是认真的对手。从特斯拉的车就能看出，老马的标准非常高，不论是物理设计的安全性和智能程度，还是制造速度。所以还是那句话，有苗不愁长。除非横空出世一个全新的AGI架构，那就是黑马，那就我们一起玩儿完，不过也很有可能被嗅觉灵敏的老马挖过来为特斯拉Space xAI所用。否则的话，目前看还只有特斯拉最接近AGI这个目标。
Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."
일론 머스크가 "1년 정도"라고 했으니, 그의 시간 감각을 감안하면 최소 3년쯤으로 읽는 게 맞을 것이다. 그래도 연간 100만 대 규모의 생산라인을 이미 갖춰놨다는 사실은 솔직히 놀랍다. 그 정도 물량을 미리 깔아뒀다는 건, 빠르면 2년 안에 심투리얼(Sim-to-Real)이 최소한의 상품성을 확보할 거라는 확신이 있다는 뜻일 테니까.
3년 안에 옵티머스가 정말 팔리기 시작한다면, 그 로봇이 현장에서 어떻게 움직일지가 가장 궁금하다.
차량과 마찬가지로 비전 기반일 건 거의 확실하다. 하지만 차는 전 세계 도로에서 쏟아지는 주행 데이터로 학습이라도 할 수 있다. 공장은 다르다. 첫 공급 물량이 배치될 공장들은 생산라인 구성부터 작업 환경까지 저마다 제각각이다. 한 번도 본 적 없는 공장에 투입된 로봇은 결국 초기에 그 현장을 새로 배워야 한다. 테슬라는 이 문제를 어떻게 풀었을까.
만약 답이 "사람 가르치듯 하면 된다"라면 어떤 모습일까. 신입사원 첫 출근날처럼, 로봇을 라인 앞에 세워두고 작업 순서와 방법을 말로 설명하고, 직접 시범을 보이며 하나씩 가르치는 식일까. 상상만 해도 정말 흥미롭다.
Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."
特斯拉这季股东信里，加州 Optimus 产线标的是早期爬坡，德州那条还在建。表格底下还有行小字，写着装好的产能不等于实际产量。
所以「开始量产」先别当成明年就能买到，马斯克自己都在泼冷水。
xitter.cf/SawyerMerritt/status/2…
Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."
👉🇰🇷🇺🇸 현재 완료형 : 옵티머스 생산이 이미 시작됨
Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."
留给传统制造业和蓝领的缓冲期，可能只剩最后 365 天了。
马斯克最新透露：特斯拉年产100万台 Optimus 的产线已基本装好，目前只差最后一口气——用未来一年彻底解决AI、机电可靠性和寿命问题。
别嘲笑它现在慢，一旦明年底“寿命和可靠性”被捅破，就是百万硅基劳工下场。如果真成了，最先被洗牌的是哪个行业？
Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."
로봇 청소기 한번 써보면 없이 어찌 살았나 싶고 못돌아가는데
모든게 다 교육 가능한 24시간 상주하며 가동하는 이모님이 1년정도 남았다고?..
그보다 일년이나 남았다고 실망이라고? 😂
Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."
실제 대량생산은 2027년 말이나 될것 같네..
Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."
Once in production, the hype will be over! No actual use cases in real life.
Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."
머스크, 테슬라 3분기 실적 콜에서 옵티머스 언급
"초기 생산 시작했다. 성장은 S커브지만 초반 기울기는 완만하다"
프리몬트에 연 100만 대 생산 라인 대부분 설치 완료, 디자인은 아직 조정 중
#Tesla #Optimus #테슬라
Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."
I’ll be waiting @elonmusk
Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."
History ,when Optimus Ðrops 🗓 – at Carter Lake, IA
Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."
So the first terminator will be ready in about a year, gotcha!
Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."
いよいよ生産が始まったか。
Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."
End of 2027 we will be at a 1 million Optimus unit per year run rate. Means start of 2028 will be slightly over 1M per year.
End of 2028 maybe 2 million units per year? End of 2029 4M. End of 2030 8M. End of 2031 16 million. End of 2032 32 million. End of 2033 64M.
This means by 2033 we will have around 120 million humanoid robots in the U.S. just from Tesla. China likely on the same scale by this time.
Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."
이번에 로드스터 이벤트를 보면서 생각난게 있다. 전혀 기대하지 않고 상상도 안한 완성도 높은 제품을 내놓는 것을 보면서, 스티브 잡스의 "One more thing". 철저한 보안속에 완성도를 높여 짜잔~ 하고 공개하는 그거. 다들 알잖아. 지금까지의 테슬라는 너무 많은 것을 공개해서 중국이나 다른 기업들이 죄다 베껴서 오히려 자기네들이 더 낫다고 말하고 다니는거.
난 옵티머스도 로드스터처럼 늦어도 좋으니 세상 모두가 놀라고 따라갈 엄두조차 못낼 제품으로 공개하면 좋겠어.
Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."
Sawyer Merritt shares Elon Musk on Optimus: early production has started and most of the 1 million unit/year Fremont line is installed. He believes it'll be the biggest product on Earth, but says to temper expectations for about a year.
Elon Musk on Optimus:
"We've started early production. The growth of Optimus is an S curve, but the initial curve is a shallow slope. We have the vast majority of the 1 million unit/year line installed at Fremont. There's still some things we need to tweak about the design. There's still quite a lot of work to do with the AI in the robot. I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability, usage life, expect these issues to be solved by the end of next year. I remain convinced Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth. I do want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, it will take about a year to get through that."