The shadow that shows up after the lights go out
Joined December 2025
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Second Strike retweeted
Transforming a short-term crisis-management mechanism (a 7-day reopening) into a resilient regional maritime architecture requires institutionalizing these informal channels.
Academic consensus suggests that sustainable conflict resolution in volatile chokepoints is most effective when driven by regional stakeholders who share long-term economic and security imperatives.
Thank you @dratiaalikazmi for highlighting the above-mentioned at this esteemed forum.
Regional ownership will further strengthen the role of Middle Powers as security providers and strategic stabilisers.
Second Strike retweeted
Transforming a short-term crisis-management mechanism (a 7-day reopening) into a resilient regional maritime architecture requires institutionalizing these informal channels.
Academic consensus suggests that sustainable conflict resolution in volatile chokepoints is most effective when driven by regional stakeholders who share long-term economic and security imperatives.
Thank you @dratiaalikazmi for highlighting the above-mentioned at this esteemed forum.
Regional ownership will further strengthen the role of Middle Powers as security providers and strategic stabilisers.
#Iran #Security #stability #Gulf #IISS_MD26 @usembislamabad @RusEmbPakistan @ForeignOfficePk @CFR_org @ethrelkeld @clary_co @ciss_ajk
At #IISS_MD26 in Manama, I asked the GCC Secretary co-guarantor of the reported US–Iran draft framework, and turn a seven-day Hormuz reopening into a lasting regional maritime arrangement.
His reply: "Everybody talks to everybody… the amount of coordination is at the highest level."
Regional ownership is the best guarantee of peace. 🇵🇰 @IISS_org @B_Giegerich @AlArabiya #Hormuz #GPSF
Second Strike retweeted
At #INC2026 in Islamabad, SVI set four. My short answers:
1. Compellence. "Bharat cannot compel Pakistan." Turning an unverified allegation into war, while reserving the decision to strike, doesn't work.
2. Limited war. "The defender also has a vote, and Pakistan can again cast it decisively." Restraint is responsible statecraft, but "restraint is not endlessly renewable."
3. Entanglement. India's dual-capable missiles, precision strike, canisterisation, MIRVs, missile defence and sea-based forces are converging. "That is a shift from stability by fear to instability by confidence."
4. Technology. BrahMos brings all three risks together. "Radar cannot reveal payload or intent." Meaningful human control must stay central to military AI.
The conclusion: "South Asia is a nuclear flashpoint and here the true enemy is the belief in useful war."
Full speech in the reply. I first set out the BrahMos argument in my CISS essays and the wider frame in my FRS paper (link below).
#SouthAsia #NuclearDeterrence
Reply 1:
Full session (my speech from 27:28): youtube.com/watch?v=GAylfaPx…
Reply 2:
FRS paper: frstrategie.org/web/document…
Second Strike retweeted
The international peace will pay the price of Bharat's illusion of being "Vishwa Guru."
Ambitions without capabilities, credibility, and capacity only indicates upon the futility of their subjective rationality.
#Modi @narendramodi #Bharat #India #Peace #Nuclear #Strategy @AmitShah #India #OperationSindoor #Pakistan @ciss_ajk
Second Strike retweeted
🌍 Keynote Address | INC-2026
⏩At the Islamabad Non-Proliferation Conference (INC-2026), Lt. Gen. Khalid Ahmed Kidwai, NI, HI, HI (M) (Retd.), Advisor Development, National Command Authority, Pakistan, offered a strategic assessment of Pakistan’s deterrence posture and the evolving dynamics of strategic stability in South Asia.
⏯️He highlighted the evolution of Pakistan’s approach to Credible Minimum Deterrence (CMD) and Full Spectrum Deterrence (FSD), underlining the role of a balanced triad of land-, air- and sea-based strategic capabilities in deterring aggression and maintaining strategic equilibrium. He emphasized that Pakistan’s deterrence posture is fundamentally defensive, designed to prevent conflict across the spectrum of warfare and discourage strategic miscalculation.
⏯️Reflecting on the May 2025 India–Pakistan conflict, he examined how conventional and nuclear deterrence shaped escalation dynamics and influenced regional and international strategic calculations. The experience reinforced the importance of credible deterrence, careful crisis management, and a clear understanding of the risks inherent in conflict between nuclear-armed states.
⏯️He further underscored the growing impact of artificial intelligence, hypersonic weapons, cyber capabilities, and space technologies on future warfare and deterrence. As these capabilities reshape strategic calculations, preventing technological imbalances and preserving strategic stability will remain essential to regional security.
⏯️South Asia’s stability depends on credible deterrence, strategic restraint, and responsible management of emerging technologies. Preventing escalation and preserving peace require a realistic appreciation of the region’s security dynamics and the consequences of strategic miscalculation.
@AsmaKhawaja5 @RadioactiveFrnd @SShahabShahid
#INC2026 #StrategicStability #Pakistan #NuclearDeterrence #SouthAsia
Second Strike retweeted
Strategic stability in South Asia must be rooted in political realities, strategic cultures, and a clear understanding of mutual security perceptions. Delivering the keynote address at the 11th IISS–CISS Track 1.5 Workshop, Lt Gen (Retd) Mazhar Jamil emphasised that unresolved disputes between nuclear-armed states require political solutions rather than military adventurism, which can trigger miscalculation and uncontrollable escalation.
He also highlighted the growing challenges posed by dual-capable missile systems and precision-strike technologies, which increasingly blur the boundaries between conventional and nuclear warfare. These evolving capabilities underscore the urgent need for institutionalised confidence-building measures, sustained dialogue, and arms-control mechanisms that address emerging technological realities and strengthen crisis management in South Asia.
📍 London | 13 October 2026
youtube.com/watch?v=UDOZA6XR…
#CISS #IISS #StrategicStability #SouthAsia #NuclearDeterrence #ArmsControl #ConfidenceBuildingMeasures
Second Strike retweeted
🌍 Webinar| CISSAJK
Pakistan and NSG: Nuclear Energy Prospects and Future Pathways
The Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS-AJK) organised a webinar titled “Pakistan and NSG: Nuclear Energy Prospects and Future Pathways,” bringing together distinguished experts to discuss Pakistan’s Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) membership prospects, peaceful nuclear cooperation, and strategic stability in South Asia.
➡️Dr. Rubina Wasim examined NSG membership criteria, consensus-based decision-making, and the principle of non-discrimination in global nuclear governance.
➡️ Ms. Ghazala Yasmin highlighted Pakistan’s non-proliferation credentials, export control framework, and nuclear safety and security arrangements.
➡️Malik Qasim discussed the implications of NSG membership decisions for regional strategic stability and the importance of confidence-building measures.
➡️Air Commodore (Retd.) Khalid Banuri explored future pathways for international nuclear energy cooperation, emphasising principled diplomacy, equitable access to peaceful nuclear technology, and the diversification of civilian nuclear partnerships.
➡️In her concluding remarks, Dr. Asma Shakir Khawaja, Executive Director of CISS-AJK, emphasised the importance of transparent criteria, consistent standards, and multilateral cooperation in strengthening international nuclear governance. She also congratulated the Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority (PNRA) on the successful completion of Pakistan’s first International Physical Protection Advisory Service (IPPAS) mission by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
♦️The webinar underscored the importance of a fair, criteria-based approach to nuclear cooperation that advances non-proliferation objectives, peaceful nuclear energy, and regional stability.
#CISSAJK #Pakistan #NSG #NuclearEnergy #NuclearDiplomacy #StrategicStability #NuclearSecurity
@CISS_Islamabad @CISSS_Karachi @ACDC_ISSI @RadioactiveFrnd @AsmaKhawaja5
Second Strike retweeted
Global Peace Strategy Forum (GPSF) organised its and much needed 1st Defense Day Dialogue.
The chief guest stated;
“To maintain credible minimum deterrence, ‘responsible readiness’ must include the capacity to manage a crisis as well as dominate the escalation ladder.”
#Defense #Defence #War #Pakistan
Global Peace Strategy Forum (GPSF)'s 1st Defense Day Dialogue
“To maintain credible minimum deterrence, ‘responsible readiness’ must include the capacity to manage a crisis as well as dominate the escalation ladder,” said Lt Gen Muhammad Ali HI(M) (R), Secretary Defense, in his keynote address as the Chief Guest at GPSF's insugural #DefenseDayDialogue. He recalled the unity of Pakistan’s Armed Forces and people against the enemy's aggression of 1965 and paid tribute to the sacrifices of soldiers, sailors, airmen, intelligence personnel, police, Frontier Corps, Rangers, Levies and the people of Pakistan. He stressed that freedom is sustained through readiness, responsibility and placing the nation above self, and underscored importance of institutional coordination, indigenization and economic resilience in strengthening Pakistan’s long-term defence preparedness, reaffirming that Pakistan seeks “peace with dignity, cooperation without dependency, and stability founded on justice” – that no adversary can narrow Pakistan’s sovereign choices through aggression, terrorism, coercion or deception.
The day also marked the launch of GPSF's first "Defense Day Monitor," envisaged as an annual review of Pakistan’s comprehensive defense and security landscape. President GPSF Dr. Atia Ali Kazmi @dratiaalikazmi noted that contemporary defense is increasingly shaped by three deficits: trust in international system, time during crises, and equitable access to critical technologies – and the Monitor examines the resulting strategic compression and strategic choices arising from these pressures.
Distinguished participants included former Ambassador Fauzia Nasreen; retired Air Vice Marshals Dr. Rizwan Riaz (Pro-Rector RIC, NUST) and Sarfraz Ahmed @sarfraz1979; Major Generals Farhat Abbas Sani (former Ambassador of Pakistan to Brunei Darussalam), Zahid Mahmood @zahidm63 (Pricipal, NIPCONS), Adnan Asif Jah Shad (MD, Green Tourism Pakistan @greenpaktourism) and Ehsan Mehmood Khan (former DG, ISSRA @ISSRA_Official); Vice Admiral Dr. Ahmed Saeed @AhmedSaeed3088, former President, NIMA @nimaisb; Brigadiers Amir Yaqub (Director Operations & Collaboration, @NIPS_NUST) and Edgar Felix; Academics and Policy Professionals including Dr. Noman Sattar @ProfNoman, Dr. Asma Shakir Khawaja @AsmaKhawaja5 (ED @ciss_ajk) Dr. Amjad Abbas @amjadmagsi (Director Pakistan Studies Centre, University of the Punjab @PU_OfficialPK), Mr. Ali Shah @78AliShah (Senior Head of Research, @NIPS_NUST), and Dr. Sarwat Rauf (Head IR, NUML) alongwith Team GPSF M. Kamal Hassan @HassanKamal2025, Arslan Arshed, Arooj Fatima Kazmi, Ali Asfand Salyana, Saamiya Siddiqui.
Experts broadly agreed that contemporary national defence requires an integrated approach, in which military preparedness is reinforced by economic resilience, technological capacity, institutional coordination, strategic communication, and national cohesion. The complete report will soon be available at gpsforum.org
Second Strike retweeted
Research based analysis of Abdul Rehman, RO CISS AJK has been published by one of the leading Publisher, Chemical & Engineering News (C&EN), of the American Chemical Society, covering chemistry, science, technology, policy, and their wider societal implications.
He examined;
1. How data secrecy can hinder chemical weapon investigations, arguing that greater international cooperation and secure sharing of chemical signatures could strengthen attribution and verification efforts.
2. What is the potential of chemical forensics, artificial intelligence, and secure data-sharing technologies to address emerging challenges under the Chemical Weapons Convention.
🔗 Read the complete article in C&EN:
cen.acs.org/policy/chemical-…
#Chemical #Defence #Strategy #Warfare @zafarwafa1977 @RadioactiveFrnd @highlight @ACDC_ISSI @bttn_quetta @CISS_Islamabad @UNIDIR @UN_Disarmament @TahirAndrabi @ForeignOfficePk @OfficialDGISPR @AbdulKashar
🌎 International Publication | CISS AJK
Author: Abdul Rehman, Research Officer, CISS AJK
Publisher : Chemical & Engineering News (C&EN) — the flagship publication of the American Chemical Society, covering chemistry, science, technology, policy, and their wider societal implications.
The article examines how data secrecy can hinder chemical weapon investigations, arguing that greater international cooperation and secure sharing of chemical signatures could strengthen attribution and verification efforts. It explores the potential of chemical forensics, artificial intelligence, and secure data-sharing technologies to address emerging challenges under the Chemical Weapons Convention.
🔗 Read the complete article in C&EN:
cen.acs.org/policy/chemical-…
Second Strike retweeted
A state assuming that a conventional war can be separated from nuclear escalation is a critical strategic failure.
In classical military strategy, building a defense posture entirely on the assumption that an adversary will respect an arbitrary boundary, violates the fundamental rule of preparing for worst-case scenarios.
Therefore the belief that under all circumstances war can be kept below the nuclear threshold is the real threat to the world peace.
@ciss_ajk @ArmsConAdvisor #Disarmament #War #nuclear #strategy
Crimson Tide: in the nuclear world, the true enemy is war itself.
In a nuclear dyad: the real enemy is the belief that war can be kept safely on a lower rung.
That is the belief that makes the unthinkable look controllable.
youtu.be/7_7Khp85YVA?si=6ijb…
Second Strike retweeted
🌎 Strategic Outreach Program | UAJK King Abdullah Campus| CISS AJK
📌 Nimra Javed
Research Officer, CISS AJK
Nimra Javed, Research Officer at CISS AJK, delivered a talk on “Artificial Intelligence, Arms Control and Disarmament” under the Strategic Outreach Program, “Strategic Literacy: Stability, Warfare and Technology.”
The session explored the implications of artificial intelligence for arms control and disarmament, highlighting the emerging challenges posed by advanced technologies and their significance for strategic stability and international security.
@RadioactiveFrnd
@AsmaKhawaja5
@UN @CISS_Islamabad
#StrategicOutreach #StrategicLiteracy #ArtificialIntelligence #ArmsControl #Disarmament #EmergingTechnologies
It is capable of engaging targets with high precision and defeating enemy's Missile Defence Systems due to its unique trajectory and maneuverability features. Fatah-2 ER with it's extended range will further enhance Army's reach and capability of engaging deep targets.
@ciss_ajk
🚨#ISPR Press Release
Pakistan Army today conducted successful test launch of Hypersonic Ballistic Missile, Fatah-2 Extended Range (ER). The weapon system is equipped with advanced navigation and state of the art avionics. #Fatah2
It is capable of engaging targets with high precision and defeating enemy's Missile Defence Systems due to its unique trajectory and maneuverability features. Fatah-2 ER with it's extended range will further enhance Army's reach and capability of engaging deep targets.
Today's launch was witnessed by Commander Army Rocket Force Command (Comd ARFC), senior officers from Pakistan Army and committed scientists and engineers. Commander ARFC appreciated the dedication and technical prowess of scientists and engineers.
The President and Prime Minister of Pakistan, Chief of Army Staff & Chief of Defence Forces and Services Chiefs congratulated the scientists and engineers on successful test launch of Extended Range version of Fatah-2 weapon system.
Pakistan Army on Tuesday conducted successful test launch of Hypersonic Ballistic Missile, Fatah-2 Extended Range (ER). It is capable of engaging targets with high precision & defeating enemy’s Missile Defence Systems due to its unique trajectory & maneuverability features.
🚨#ISPR Press Release
Pakistan Army today conducted successful test launch of Hypersonic Ballistic Missile, Fatah-2 Extended Range (ER). The weapon system is equipped with advanced navigation and state of the art avionics. #Fatah2
It is capable of engaging targets with high precision and defeating enemy's Missile Defence Systems due to its unique trajectory and maneuverability features. Fatah-2 ER with it's extended range will further enhance Army's reach and capability of engaging deep targets.
Today's launch was witnessed by Commander Army Rocket Force Command (Comd ARFC), senior officers from Pakistan Army and committed scientists and engineers. Commander ARFC appreciated the dedication and technical prowess of scientists and engineers.
The President and Prime Minister of Pakistan, Chief of Army Staff & Chief of Defence Forces and Services Chiefs congratulated the scientists and engineers on successful test launch of Extended Range version of Fatah-2 weapon system.
Winter Internship 2026
Step into the world of strategic affairs and gain meaningful professional experience.
@ciss_ajk @RadioactiveFrnd @AsmaKhawaja5
🌍 *CISS AJK |* *Winter Internship 2026*
Step into the world of strategic affairs and gain meaningful professional experience.
The Centre for International Strategic Studies AJK (CISS-AJK) is inviting applications for its Winter 6-Week Internship Program 2026, offering graduates with *Kashmir's State Subject or Domicile,* an opportunity to explore contemporary strategic, geopolitical, defence, and international affairs through research and practical engagement.
🎓 *Who Can Apply?*
Graduates with a BS or MS degree in:
• International Relations
• Defence & Strategic Studies
• Peace & Conflict Studies
• Related fields
✨️Applicant must have *Kashmir's State Subject Letter or Domicile*
🔎 *What to Expect?*
The six-week program provides exposure to strategic affairs, research, analysis, and contemporary regional and international developments, helping participants strengthen their academic and professional understanding of strategic affairs.
*Note*
🔎Accommodation can be arranged.
🚍Within city pick and drop will be provided.
💡Modest perdiem will be given.
*Last Date to Apply: October 26, 2026*
🗓️ : *Duration: November 16 – December 24, 2026*
📝 Apply Here:
docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F…
Second Strike retweeted
IAEA's first #IPPAS mission to Pakistan concluded in Islamabad.
Hosted by #PNRA, the team reviewed Pakistan's nuclear security regime & visited #KANUPP Decommissioning Project. IAEA lauded Pakistan's transparency & professionalism, noting its commitment to global nuclear security
Pakistan’s completion of its first IAEA IPPAS mission sends a constructive message to the international community: nuclear security is strengthened through cooperation, professional engagement and continuous improvement. @ciss_ajk @AsmaKhawaja5 @RadioactiveFrnd
#Pakistan has established a robust #nuclearsecurity regime for the physical protection of its nuclear materials and facilities, an International Atomic Energy Agency (#IAEA) team of experts found after concluding a comprehensive 12-day review.
dawn.com/news/2036072
By engaging with international experts, Pakistan reinforces its commitment to responsible nuclear stewardship and the peaceful application of nuclear technology. @ciss_ajk @RadioactiveFrnd @AsmaKhawaja5
Pakistan’s experience can contribute to broader international efforts toward a safer and more secure nuclear environment. @ciss_ajk @AsmaKhawaja5 @RadioactiveFrnd
Responsible nuclear stewardship is demonstrated through action, not rhetoric. A positive step for global nuclear security. 🇵🇰
@ciss_ajk @AsmaKhawaja5 @RadioactiveFrnd
46 years ago, the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (@CCW) was adopted to limit the use of weapons that cause excessive suffering or have indiscriminate effects. @ciss_ajk @RadioactiveFrnd @AsmaKhawaja5
