@Shauncore

CFA. Caution: will tweet a lot (of bad opinions) about sports (NFL/MLB), sabermetrics, movies (especially 00s comedies), and television. Sometimes my dogs too.

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theanalyticssay.substack.com/
Joined April 2009
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Friends: I started a Substack called "The Analytics Say..." where I'm going to be writing about thoughts that are too long for Twitter. It is free and will always be free. My first post is on where does the Royals organization goes from here theanalyticssay.substack.com…
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"Setting a winning culture" and this person is talking about the *Cleveland Browns*
Dontbeadumbass@Dontbeadum402022h
Replying to @Shauncore
This is such a loser take 1.) the QBs in 2027 were severely overhyped that's obvious now 2.) setting a winning culture for your team that's 80% 1st and 2nd year players is way more important than tanking and hoping you win the qb lottery
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Zay Flowers target heatmap with Lamar vs Huntley. A lot more screens and short middle of the field vs Lamar ripping it more everywhere and deep
Adam Levitan
@adamlevitan5h
Ravens 6th in yards per play, despite Tyler Huntley taking 50.1% of the snaps this season. Zay Flowers leads NFL in yards per route run, despite 64% of his targets coming from Huntley. Very, very excited to see how hard Declan Doyle will cook with a healthy Lamar Jackson.
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It's very funny that bad QB play and injury from Watson is what kept the Browns from having a good future QB and winning and now that Watson is playing better and they are winning, it's keeping them from having good future QB potentially
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I should say MORE PRODUCTIVE not good, Watson has not been good
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Good move by both teams. I like the Colts getting a guaranteed 2027 3rd rounder instead of waiting for a non-guaranteed 2028 3rd round comp pick (and all the variables around it).
Adam Schefter
@AdamSchefter4h
Compensation update; The Seahawks are sending a 2027 third-round pick and 2028 fifth-round round pick to the Colts in exchange for Quenton Nelson.
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You should not be counting on comp picks, they are a nice bonus but completely ephemeral and fragile. Worry about your comp picks in March, not November
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I'm sorry, but Worthy has very little value other than "former first round pick" shine and he's not really even a "broken but could be fun to fix!" guy. Not sure why the Jets would want him in a package for Wilson (not to mention a future 1st as the other part)
Shaun Newkirk
@Shauncore21h
Move on from the Garrett Wilson to the Chiefs fantasy. It's a first rounder plus for him and it's a late first probably, he's got 4.5 years left on his deal, he's 26, and the Jets aren't going to eat $7M in dead cap. They will be a completely different team in 2027.
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Texans don't *have* to win out to make the playoffs but shy off really 11 wins they don't control their own destiny and they really need to go 8-2 the rest of the way (per The Athletic simulator)
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We've reached the point in the season that offense and total DVOA is really starting to be stable, predictive of the future of the team that season. And after this week, defensive DVOA solidly crosses the 50% mark and gets more explanatory until the all important post-week 10
Shaun Newkirk
@ShauncoreOct 2
Wrote today over at the Substack looking at DVOA from @FTNFantasy @ASchatzNFL and how quickly it stabilizes, which parts we can trust early, and how predictive prior year DVOA is. Also did some DVOA forecasting but turns out DAVE is already pretty good. theanalyticssay.substack.com…
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Historical DVOA team comparisons through week 7 (data via @FTNFantasy and @ASchatzNFL ). Bengals move into the top 2, Vikings and Seahawks rise, a few fallers, and more details on the top 5 in the replies
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I'll keep echoing that it's going to be a disappointing January in Buffalo for the Bills again if they don't do something about the secondary or hire Bill Belichick to call plays.
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The newest entrant to the DVOA top 5 is the Seattle Seahawks. Lot of fitting teams on here: 2025 Texans, 2006 Ravens, 2015 Broncos, 1998 Dolphins. All great defenses but on the other side of the ball they couldn't run it. I think though the Seattle O will get better
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The Athletic model has it also at 88% in that same scenario. And again, 10 wins is the bare minimum for any seed, 11 is safe.
Shaun Newkirk
@Shauncore21h
Ravens path to the playoffs (assuming Lamar plays) still very open even with a loss to Buffalo. RBDSM model has them at 92% with W over JAX/LAC/CAR/TB/PIT (4 home games) without considering other teams games. 2nd image is winning the games FPI favors them currently
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There a slim 9 win scenario for the 7th seed that requires Baltimore's fellow AFC North peers to collapse a bit, but it's 11 wins as the target, 10 wins gives you hope but need help
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Not sure there is a GM I trust more to navigate the reload/soft reset than Howie. Woolen and Goedert seem gone, maybe they can get a gentleman's future 6th for Bollywood Brown
Ryan Paganetti
@RyanPaganetti7h
How the Eagles handle things between now and the trade deadline on November 10 should be very intriguing. What do you think they will do? What do you think they should do?
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