SimpleHedge

As a producer when wondering if you should reward a rally.. ask yourself this: Would I be more mad if I sold today and the market rallied another +$0.50? Or if I didn’t sell and the market tanked -$1.00? Not long ago there was talk about corn with a $3.00 handle and sub $9.00 beans I think corn specifically still has potential upside.. but it would be silly for many to not consider rewarding a +$0.70 cent rally in corn and +$1.00 rally in soybeans Today we alerted a hedge alert/sell signal for both corn & soybeans to our subscribers. An example of a hedge you could consider in both corn & beans is at the money February puts. This would give you protection for the next 10 days. Trump is going into office in a week. Already talking about tariffs. South America is in weather mode. Grabbing a Feb put locks you in a floor in case this market gives back the rally.. while at the same time keeping your upside open in case this rally continues here short term. For 5 cents you could grab a Feb $4.75 corn put and create a worst case scenario floor of $4.70 until January 24th. The rally continues? Great. Your put expires worthless but you make a good cash sale. (or then get a higher priced strike and raise your floor even higher). The market tanks? Your put protects you and gives you a floor. Hedge Math: Put Strike - Cost of Put = Floor Price $4.75 - $0.05 = $4.70 floor When you lift the hedge, you replace it with a cash sale is typical hedging 101. Don’t like options or don’t have a hedge account? Many could consider small simple incremental cash sales instead. But this is an example of why a hedge account is a great tool to have in grain marketing. (This is not a recommendation. Options are risky and not suitable for everyone) *** Struggle knowing when to pull the trigger in grain marketing? Try our updates & sell signals free 🌽 👉 dailymarketminute.com/freetr…

Massive breakout in #soybeans 🌱 Today topped out right at those $10.42 early August highs A pop through this level would be a huge Opens the door to potentially that $10.80 range A lot is of course going to be dependent on Brazil rain.. but the chart look poised for a potential breakout

Friday was another poor day for corn & beans as they both post new lows, while wheat continues to be the leader. We continue to see pressure from old crop farmer selling, lack of demand, and of course the thought of massive record crops with tomorrow’s USDA report expected to show increased yields. The funds are still record short grains with no reason to cover today. Weather is no longer a major market mover anymore, and it is very unlikely we see weather make much of an impact on prices here. However, it has been cool and the outlook remains cooler than normal. So pretty much perfect conditions for soybeans, not so ideal for prices. If this weather continues to be cool with some rain, that soybean crop could get a little bigger from here. The biggest thing is tomorrow’s USDA report. They are expecting yield increases from last month for both corn & beans. Some think we may even see numbers higher than these. As many analysts such as StoneX have a 183 or so yield. USDA Estimates: Corn: 182.1 vs last months 181 Beans: 52.5 vs last months 52 However despite record yields, actual production is not expected to see a big increase. As acres are expected to come down. Acres are the true wild card though. Numbers such as yield you can typically have an idea of. Some reports expects corn acres to fall nearly -500k. We definitely had some issues with flooding etc. so we will have to see if those come into play or not. Typically the USDA does not incorporate acre numbers until the September or October report, but are doing so this month. Carryout is expected to be unchanged for corn, but slightly higher for soybeans. Check out this weekends update where we go over some strategies you could use before the report depending on where you are at in your marketing, risks going forward & some tidbits such as how cheap U.S. grain really is Listen/Read Here 👉 txt.so/56xjej Try our daily updates free & get 1 on 1 tailored market planning that fits your specific situation. Grain marketing isn’t one size fits all 📲 dailymarketminute.com/freetr…