SoundingCast

The m shape can work (April 26, 1991, Greenfield, and Winterset) but usually you want more mid and deep layer shear (which isn’t really present here). My rule of thumb is that for the majority of setups you want backed low level winds or impressive speed shear at all levels.

Northern Oklahoma 11-2-2026 Estimated Tornado Risk - 5%

Makes sense with the environment. Good low level instability and humid throughout the atmosphere. Good directional shear as well.

Southern Texas 10-29-2026 Estimated Tornado Risk - 6%

Eastern Minnesota 10-28-2026 Estimated Tornado Risk - 8%

@ChieferEvan @GumryWX

Central Arizona 10-21-2026 Estimated Tornado Risk - 4%

Southern Illinois 10-15-2026 Estimated Tornado Risk - 1%

Southern South Carolina 10-10-2026 Estimated Tornado Risk - 5%

Northern Kansas 9-30-2026 Estimated Tornado Risk - 5%

Southwest Iowa 9-14-2026 Estimated Tornado Risk - 4%

Northern Minnesota 9-11-2026 Estimated Tornado Risk - 5%

Central Iowa 9-8-2026 Estimated Tornado Risk - 4%

Western New York 9-2-2026 Estimated Tornado Risk - 6%

Eastern New York 8-27-2026 Estimated Tornado Risk - 2%

Northeast Indiana 8-26-2026 Estimated Tornado Risk - 1%

Eastern North Dakota 8-24-2026 Estimated Tornado Risk - 0%

Central Illinois 8-21-2026 Estimated Tornado Risk - 5%