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I sold the fist pentium computers. I watched the web change everything. This is why I believe in the blockchain and crypto and all that comes with it. nitter.gq/apompliano/status/9954…
I'm reminded of this 1993 CNN video about "Internet" every time someone tells me blockchain & crypto aren't going to be important.
History will be unkind to the non-believers. 🚀
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Stephen Worrall retweeted
FACT CHECK THREAD:
Nick Shirley’s misleading claims about Minnesota, Somali communities, and “fraud” 🧵
There’s a reason his videos feel shocking, and it’s not because he uncovered something real. Here’s what he’s not telling you: @nickshirleyy
Stephen Worrall retweeted
Where the hell are all the “how are we gonna pay for it” politicians now that we’re on the brink of another multi trillion dollar war?
Stephen Worrall retweeted
What Does Paradigm C Mean For Your Portfolio?
Today, I joined @cvpayne to break down why markets are embracing Paradigm C—a pro-growth blend of stimulus, tax cuts, deregulation, and strategic reshoring. Unlike the austerity-driven Paradigm B, which would favor Main Street but hurt Wall Street, Paradigm C expands the K-shaped economy—bullish for stocks, credit, and crypto, bearish for bonds and the dollar.
While rising rates and Treasury volatility may cause bumps along the way, geopolitical and fiscal tailwinds are fueling an economy on steroids. Stay risk-on. Use volatility to buy the dip.
If you missed the appearance, watch it here:
Stephen Worrall retweeted
The private money creation is hotter (relative to trend) than it was in 2020/2021
This is not an economy on the brink of a recession
stenoresearch.com/watch-seri…
Stephen Worrall retweeted
Stanley Druckenmiller is undoubtedly one of the best hedge fund managers of our time
This interview is from roughly a decade ago at USC, but remains one of my favorites
He discusses why he believes in putting all your eggs in one basket and watching that basket very closely
Stephen Worrall retweeted
Philly Fed data for May dropped yesterday – and the Future New Orders index just made history. Literally.
Expectations for new orders posted the largest monthly spike ever recorded – going all the way back to the index’s inception in May 1968.
A staggering +4.3 standard deviation move.
For perspective:
That’s an even bigger move up than the downside collapse during the depths of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (-4.1 standard deviations).
Let that sink in...
As far as we're concerned, the macro big picture remains this:
Q1 growth was weak. The reason is straightforward – financial conditions tightened sharply in Q4. The dollar ripped, bond yields surged… a classic tightening phase.
This was driven by businesses panic-loading inventories ahead of Trump tariffs, and markets front-running the inflation narrative.
We’ve highlighted repeatedly:
This had all the hallmarks of Q4 2016 during Trump’s first term. Just like early 2017, that tightening spilled over into slower growth momentum in Q1.
But here’s the important part:
Those Q1 headwinds have flipped into Q2 tailwinds.
Everything flows downstream from changes in financial conditions…
Purchasing managers’ expectations are shifting – and shifts in thinking eventually translate into action.
Sentiment shifts first. Action follows. It always does.
Bullish.
Stephen Worrall retweeted
🧵 Markets Are About to Explode — And Almost Everyone Is Positioned Wrong
The #MacroInvestingTool data is clear.
The dollar just triggered a macro slingshot that historically launches stocks and crypto into the stratosphere.
{thread} 👇
Stephen Worrall retweeted
The Macro Minute | May 2, 2025
In today's video, I answer the following questions:
- Is the labor market about to fall off a cliff?
- Are markets losing conviction on the macro regime?
You can watch it here:
Stephen Worrall retweeted
The April ISM report lines up exactly with what I said a few weeks ago in one of our weekly MIT reports on @RealVision:
The Q4 tightening of financial conditions helps explain the recent drop in ISM New Orders. But that effect should now be fading...
We’re likely to see New Orders bottom out over the next month or two before turning higher again.
Speaking of ISM New Orders...
The recent drop, along with the sharp spike higher in ISM Inventories – driven by businesses front-running Trump tariffs – is already fully reflected in the price of US cyclical equities.
And the same is true for Bitcoin…
At the lows, Bitcoin had already priced in a drop in ISM all the way down to around 47.
But here’s where things gets interesting:
We think that the inventory spike was likely a one-off – or at least, the scale of the rise relative to New Orders in March looks exaggerated.
After all, the drop in ISM New Orders was largely a delayed response to the Q4 tightening.
At the same time, rising ISM Inventories aren’t a concern in isolation…
The gap versus New Orders stands out, yes – but with financial conditions easing again, that divergence should close overtime as the cycle re-engages.
As we noted earlier, the recent inventory build was mostly firms moving early ahead of Trump tariffs.
But it also lines up with what you typically see in the early stages of a recovery – businesses quietly restocking as demand stabilizes, liquidity picks up, and expectations start shifting.
Now, the cycle’s still too soft for this to mark a full-blown restocking phase – but the key point remains: rising inventories, on their own, aren’t a problem.
When the ISM turns up, inventories typically follow…
So what happens next?
Well, just like we saw when US Economic Surprise rolled over and risk assets had to reprice weaker-than-expected incoming macro data... we’re now setting up for the opposite.
Stronger macro data will be coming soon. And risk assets will need to reprice that reality, too...
Chart 1: ISM New Orders vs. GMI Short-Term Lead Index
Chart 2: ISM vs. Bitcoin Implied ISM Pricing
Chart 3: Bitcoin vs. GMI Financial Conditions Index
Chart 4: US Citi Economic Surprise Index Minus G10 vs. GMI Financial Conditions Index
Stephen Worrall retweeted
We’ve filed with the SEC for a SUI ETF in the U.S. — a first step in expanding exchange-traded access to SUI.
@SuiNetwork
globenewswire.com/news-relea…
Materials provided herein are intended solely for educational purposes only. These materials should not be construed as solicitations or promotions for any specific financial services or a recommendation of any securities by 21Shares US and its affiliates. Materials contained herein may also include forward-looking statements subject to numerous assumptions, risks and uncertainties and therefore undue reliance should not be placed on such statements.
Stephen Worrall retweeted
Good morning, and God bless, #Team42!
Today’s Key Macro Question(s): Whose stock market and economy is it—@JoeBiden’s or @realDonaldTrump's?
Risk assets are rallying nicely today after Meta $META and Microsoft $MSFT reaffirmed the US tech exceptionalism narrative via earnings beats and upbeat guidance. This comes amid signs of further progress on trade deals.
Meta topped expectations and raised its full-year capex forecast as AI investment ramps, while Microsoft beat earnings estimates with strong Azure cloud growth. The Q1 earnings scorecard reflects broad resilience early into President Trump’s trade war, with the next key data points expected post-close from Amazon $AMZN and Apple $AAPL.
US Trade Representative Greer told Fox News the US is close to announcing a first tranche of trade deals that includes tariff reductions on certain partners. This is well timed considering the news that Airbus $EADSY is refusing to absorb Trump-imposed tariffs on planes sold to US airlines, escalating tensions with carriers unwilling to cover the added costs.
Substantial further progress on the trade negotiation front aligns with our consistently sanguine take regarding the trade/capital war since April 9:
Per our 4/10 Leadoff Morning Note: “All told, the fact that the “Trump put” was exercised—or at a minimum rolled to July 9—due to stress in the Treasury bond market has both positive and negative implications. On the positive side, it clears the way for, at worst, a retest of the lows in the interim and, at best, a sustained uptrend from here.”
Per our 4/12 Around the Horn: “Geopolitically driven stress in the Treasury market is accelerating the transition from “US exceptionalism” to the US being an emerging market in capital flight risk terms. President Trump may be operating under the assumption that the US is “too big to fail” and foreign creditors may check him on that. Markets also thought Lehman was “too big to fail”. This transition has several profound implications for asset markets: 1) the rest of the world has much more negotiating leverage than anyone in the Trump administration is willing to admit publicly, increasing the probability that reciprocal tariff rates are broadly lowered in deals that President Trump will celebrate as “wins”...”
One big “win” that lies ahead in the coming months is a trade deal with China, and the Trump administration is already taking steps to ensure that outcome. Specifically, a Weibo post by Yuyuantantian, affiliated with China Central Television, reported the US had approached China through multiple channels to restart tariff talks.
This humble backchanneling is inconsistent with public displays of bravado from the Trump administration. Trump most recently said that a deal with China has a “very good chance,” but it must be “on our terms and it’s got to be fair.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed Trump’s stance, insisting China “must initiate de-escalation”.
Citing anonymous sources, the Weibo post claimed “China doesn’t need to talk to the US until it takes meaningful measures,” adding the US is “clearly the more anxious party.”
President Trump’s anxiety was on full display yesterday after the Q1 GDP data indicated a US economy in contraction for the first time since 1Q22. He took to Truth Social shortly after the release to pivot the narrative back to “Biden’s economy” and “Biden’s stock market”.
“This is Biden’s Stock Market, not Trump’s. I didn’t take over until January 20th. Tariffs will soon start kicking in, and companies are starting to move into the USA in record numbers. Our Country will boom, but we have to get rid of the Biden “Overhang.” This will take a while, has NOTHING TO DO WITH TARIFFS, only that he left us with bad numbers, but when the boom begins, it will be like no other. BE PATIENT!!!”
-@realDonaldTrump on 4/30/25 at 9:13am ET
Recall that this is the fourth such pivot he’s made since his election last fall w/r/t to taking or not taking credit for the economy:
1. November 6 through March 3: “ushering in a golden age for America”
2. March 4 through April 8: “an adjustment period” / “a little disturbance”
3. April 9 through April 29: “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!”
4. April 30 to present: “Biden’s Stock Market, not Trump’s” / “Biden overhang” / “BE PATIENT!!!”
“Strategic ambiguity.” “The art of the deal.” “Controlled chaos.” Right. Right. Right…
In our president’s defense, yesterday’s deluge of US economic data indicates the US economy is still as resilient as we—the authors of the “resilient US economy” theme back in the summer of 2022—have consistently signaled it was. This gives the Trump administration more leverage than they likely realize in trade negotiations. A few highlights from the data (all growth rates = 3mo/QoQ SAAR):
-US Real GDP growth slowed to a well-below-trend -0.3% (lowest since 1Q22)
-Imports subtracted 503bps from Headline GDP (lowest since 3Q20) and Inventories added 225bps (highest since 4Q21), for a net drag of 278bps (lowest since 2Q22)
-The Federal Gov’t subtracted 33bps from Headline GDP (lowest since 1Q22) and State & Local Governments added 8bps (lowest since 2Q22), for a net drag of 25bps (lowest since 2Q22)
-Real GDP ex-Gov’t slowed to 0.0% (lowest since 1Q22)
-Real GDP ex-Net Exports accelerated to 5.0% (highest since 4Q21)
-Real GDP ex-Gov’t & Net Exports accelerated to 6.2% (highest since 4Q21)
-Real Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers accelerated to an above-trend 3.0% (highest since 3Q24)
-Real Services PCE accelerated to an above-trend 2.3% (highest since Jan-25)
-Real Disposable Personal Income accelerated to a well-above-trend 4.1% (highest since Mar-24)
-Nominal Disposable Personal Income accelerated to a well-above trend 7.2% (highest since Mar-24)
-Nominal Wage & Salary Compensation accelerated to 4.8% (highest since Dec-24), indicating ongoing resiliency in the labor market
All told, if the Trump administration can acknowledge the fact that while the “art of the deal” may work in trade negotiations, the damage “strategic ambiguity” is doing to the economy in “uncertainty up = GDP down” terms is not worth the risk of a full-blown recession. They’d be much better served to state their intentions plainly. This would allow markets to look through any tariff-driven economic downturn with an eye towards a high-probability recovery in 2026.
As far as markets are concerned, tariffs aren’t the problem. It’s the uncertainty and constant flip-flopping regarding tariffs that is holding the stock market back from aggressively pricing in the “golden age” that was promised on the campaign trail. With the right messaging from the administration, a “V-shaped market in a U-shaped economy” can easily become the modal outcome in this historically wide distribution of probable economic, policy, and market outcomes.
@POTUS and @SecScottBessent, if you’re listening, please just tell us how much pain to expect so Wall Street can properly “kitchen sink” its forecasts and begin pricing in the 2026 recovery. Respectfully, your poor communication is what’s holding the economy and asset markets back from the “BOOM” you promised.
If you found this note helpful, please like and share. Thank you!
Consistently making money and protecting gains in financial markets requires a lot of time, expertise, and computational power. Investors partner with 42 Macro because we do the heavy lifting and answer the hard questions for them. See for yourself: 42macro.com/42-macro-sample-….
Have a great day!
-Skipper
Stephen Worrall retweeted
The debt and deficit commentary and the flawed economics on which it is based. Wrote a book about it.
Stephen Worrall retweeted
His successor has big questions to answer:
Will he follow Francis’ example—
or roll back the clock?
Stephen Worrall retweeted
JPMorgan applying the MMT lens. This was written before Bessent declared that he wants to "delever" the public sector and "relever" the private sector, but the MMT lens makes the implications clear. privatebank.jpmorgan.com/nam…
Stephen Worrall retweeted
Will The Trump Administration Cause A Balance Of Payments Crisis In The US? | April 19, 2025
These excerpts from our April 19, 2025 Around the Horn presentation represent the most important public service announcement we have made to date in the service of helping both investors on Wall Street and families on Main Street prepare for the deepening Fourth Turning polycrisis that we have prepared 42 Macro clients for since the summer of 2023. In short, US assets are egregiously overvalued for any scenario that features a persistent erosion of the US’ exorbitant privilege. Moreover, the near-world-beating quality of life that US citizens generally enjoy is at risk as well if destabilizing capital outflows persist. They will likely persist if threats to central bank independence and/or a lack of respect for the rule of law trigger a jump condition in global investors’ assessment of US political risk. Remember, risk happens slowly, then all at once…
Stephen Worrall retweeted
For months, people have wondered what the real impact of tariffs and trade restrictions would be.
Now we’re starting to see it — and the early signs are worse than expected.
Here's what’s happening across the global economy:
U.S. imports from China fell 64%
Global container shipments are being canceled in record numbers
South Korean exports just flipped from +5.5% to –5.2% — in one month
Philly Fed manufacturing orders crashed 75 points since January
The Conference Board’s LEI just posted its 23rd drop in 25 months
These aren’t forecasts. This is real-time data — showing a global system that was artificially boosted by frontloaded trade…
and is now hitting a serious air pocket.
Meanwhile, central banks are frozen. They’re calling this “uncertainty.”
But the numbers?
They’re pointing toward something very certain: a major global slowdown.
If you want to understand what’s actually happening beneath the surface — and how it may ripple through markets, trade, and growth
Watch now youtu.be/FxKWAvWnSvk
