Retired from photonics industry-finance geek-low carb but pro-vax MMT is not just a theory
Bozeman
Joined August 2019
- Tweets1.8K
- Following1.1K
- Followers159
- Likes3.7K
Dave Rockafellow retweeted
You know, this really is a perfect illustration of the state of the world today.
Russia --
the very same Russia that unleashed the biggest bloodbath in Europe since the time of Adolf Hitler,
that occupied the once quiet, cozy Ukrainian town of Oleshky on the banks of the Dnipro River,
that forced 90% of its population to flee,
that devastated the town (yes, Oleshky was catastrophically flooded following the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam in 2023!),
that brought the remaining residents TO THE BRINK OF STARVATION,
that couldn't have cared less about them for all these years,
that surrounded the town and the roads in and out with minefields,
that rejected every Ukrainian proposal for a local ceasefire to rescue the people dying there,
that was still shooting down Ukrainian drones trying to deliver food and medicine to Oleshky just weeks ago,
and that finally agreed to a ceasefire and evacuation only to please Donald Trump ahead of his elections...
...that EXACT SAME Russia is now standing before the cameras at the White House WITH THE MOST POMPOUS AND SELF-RIGHTEOUS LOOK ON ITS FUCKING FACE, theatrically wringing its hands like a character in an ancient Greek tragedy, and presenting Melania Trump with "touching little gifts" from the "rescued children" of Oleshky.
We are living through one of the most utterly disgusting, dumbest, and grotesquely immoral eras in human history.
Dave Rockafellow retweeted
Watching all these Republican attempts to explain why they lost the election is painful, because they cannot come out and say one simple truth. They handed the party to a corrupt, criminal, dictator-loving, economic and strategic idiot--who proceeded to be all of these things.
Dave Rockafellow retweeted
The use of a nuclear weapon in Iran may not destroy the mountain, but it destroys an entire model of international relations.
As has been floated in recent days, Netanyahu has been working toward an operation with tactical nuclear missiles against Iran.
This would be different from using a bomb like the ones we saw in Japan, which were designed as strategic weapons to destroy entire cities.
Tactical warheads have a lower destructive yield, usually between 1 and 50 kilotons.
They are designed to eliminate specific military targets on the battlefield, bases, ports, or armored columns, without triggering an instantaneous global apocalypse.
Most of these tactical missiles are, in theory, meant to detonate in the air, hundreds of meters above their targets, avoiding ground contact and leaving radiation that dissipates within weeks in the affected area.
The problem is that the plan reported by Tucker Carlson would involve detonating the Pickaxe mountain, as Donald Trump also once promised. That would be a radioactive catastrophe of a different order from an airburst hundreds of meters above a region, something that already strikes me as absurd enough.
All of this is terrifying, but the use of a tactical nuclear weapon would mean changing the paradigms on which international relations are built.
The use of tactical missiles and direct attacks against a regional power like Iran would redefine traditional concepts of state sovereignty, respect for borders, and, above all, the logic of global nuclear deterrence.
In international law and relations between states, territorial sovereignty is the fundamental pillar. A direct attack with tactical missiles would transform that dynamic and bring an end to traditional red lines.
It would demonstrate that possessing a robust conventional army or a vast territory no longer prevents invasion or direct bombardment by technologically superior forces.
This would consolidate the idea that states can violate the sovereignty of others on the basis of anticipated threats, a precedent we already live with, but one that would reach another level with nuclear weapons.
The most dangerous shift would occur in how countries view nuclear weapons. Historically, deterrence works on the premise that the cost of attacking a country is too high.
If Iran, a country on the threshold of nuclear development, is attacked in a conventional and tactical manner, the geopolitical message would first and foremost be one of encouragement to proliferate.
This scenario would turn the global board into a far more unpredictable environment, where fear and the rush to acquire weapons of mass destruction would replace diplomacy and economic containment.
Read more
global21.substack.com/p/the-…
Dave Rockafellow retweeted
Although people all over the world are happy to see Trump and MAGA becoming unpopular in the USA, the reason behind it is far less encouraging.
Trump could support Putin and Russia all he wanted. He could continue to let Ukrainians get slaughtered, treat Canada like shit, threaten Denmark with war, steal from Venezuela to line his own pockets, support Israel's brutality, and insult allies day after day. The American public doesn't support these things, but they don't seem to care very much about them either.
The only reason people are now turning against Trump is because — of all unimportant things — gas has become a little bit more expensive in in a country wealthier than any other in world history. THAT is what infuriates the average voter and makes them turn against Trump
The rest of the world is lucky that this is happening, as it weakens Trump. But that doesn't mean we should assume that the USA will act morally on the world stage in the future. Deep down, they simply don't care very much.
Dave Rockafellow retweeted
You know, I've been racking my brain trying to remember when else in history a great military power launched a war of aggression against a neighboring country, failed to defeat it on the battlefield for years -- and then the leadership of another great power (which the aggressor had regarded as its archenemy until just yesterday!!) engaged in petty, sordid collusion with the aggressor, made a complete 180-degree turn, and began actively working to force its undefeated victim into capitulation and extinction as a nation.
I'm honestly trying to think of historical precedents -- but it seems that never before in the history of this world under the heavens has there been such a spectacular display of deranged idiocy.
Dave Rockafellow retweeted
We are inside the OODA loop. Outrage won’t fix this, and they know it. Congress can investigate Musk or Trump or Rubio or Hegseth all day long, but even getting that setup will take days or weeks. It will require staff frantically requesting documents and comms that won’t be provided. By the time any such hearing produces its very first soundbite, there will be a half dozen new outrages. Will those be investigated? There aren’t enough staffers in the world to run down all the egregious violations.
OODA loop: Observe, Orient, Decide, Act — the attention cycle employed by fighter pilots, described by Col. John Boyd. Fighter pilots have a tight, fast OODA loop that takes just a few seconds. Congress runs at about 5-7 days at absolute minimum.
The way the adversary (Putin, Musk, Trump) advances in this scenario is to act faster than the OODA loop, which isn’t all that hard. But acceleration shows an intent to escape circumstances and consequence.
To beat this kind of adversary you need to shut down their ability to act inside the OODA loop and also anticipate their next moves.
Washington isn’t cut out for this, especially going into the languid nothing-gets-done election and holiday season. So, if we want to interrupt this collapse, we need to select for moves that produce rapid outcomes, even if imperfect. That suggests court actions (TRO’s etc) vs slow Congressional inquiries. Or both in parallel. But don’t fantasize this is going to get fixed quickly without a lot of other simultaneous attacks. They are inside the OODA loop and they know it.
Dave Rockafellow retweeted
Oh, I’m fucking angry today. And you better brace yourselves.
I haven’t slept for 24 hours.
For an entire fucking day, Russia has been pounding Kyiv with Geran attack drones. Wave after wave. Relentlessly.
TWENTY-FOUR HOURS.
And while we’re living through this nightmare, Donald Trump is reportedly complaining:
“We gave Ukraine enormous amounts of money. And all we got in return was high diesel prices.”
ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME?!
We’re being bombed. We’re losing sleep, electricity, homes and lives. And you’re talking about DIESEL PRICES?!
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence (HUR) has released new estimates of Russia’s military stockpiles ahead of winter.
🚨 Russia is reportedly producing more than 200 missiles every month, including approximately 110 ballistic missiles.
Russia’s estimated arsenal includes:
đź”´ 6,200 Shahed-type attack drones in reserve.
đź”´ 115 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, with another 65 produced monthly.
đź”´ More than 450 Kalibr cruise missiles.
đź”´ Up to 400 RM-48U missiles.
đź”´ More than 600 Oniks missiles.
đź”´ More than 120 Zircon missiles.
đź”´ Kh-101 production reportedly exceeds 80 missiles per month.
Do you understand what these numbers mean?
They mean more nights like this.
More Ukrainian children sleeping in shelters.
More families living without electricity or heating.
More civilians killed while the world debates the price of fuel.
Russia is stockpiling weapons ahead of winter. We are preparing to survive another winter of Russian attacks.
And instead of talking about diesel prices, perhaps it’s time to talk about stopping the country that’s bombing us.
UKRAINIANS ARE NOT THE PRICE YOU PAY FOR YOUR POLITICAL GAMES.
We are human beings. And we have the right to live.
#Ukraine #Kyiv #RussiaUkraineWar #StandWithUkraine #AirDefense #RussianWarCrimes
Dave Rockafellow retweeted
Imagine if in 1943 FDR had decided that the US would stop helping Britain and instead would side with the Third Reich. That's a bit like what President Trump is now doing by cozying up to Russia as it tries to destroy Ukraine. Utterly shameful. A humiliating moment for the US.
Dave Rockafellow retweeted
Trump only thinks that it's Zelenskyy who refuses to surrender, viewing him as the main obstacle standing between himself and a sweet dealmaking with Putin.
But in reality, it's not Zelenskyy, it's the Ukrainian people who refuse to surrender. If our president decided, for some reason, to go against the people's will and capitulate by accepting Putin's conditions, he wouldn't last 20 seconds in office.
​And the notion that the Ukrainian people are "dying for Zelenskyy" is one of the stupidest things I've ever heard. I've never met a single soldier who thinks that way.
They are fighting because foreign invaders would otherwise occupy their homes, kidnap their children, steal their property, and kill them. That's why, Zelenskyy or no Zelenskyy, they would still defend their country.
Dave Rockafellow retweeted
If Putin stops fighting, the war ends. If Zelensky stops fighting then his country will be occupied, leaders murdered, language banned, businesses stolen, children kidnapped. That's what happens in Russian-occupied Ukraine.
Dave Rockafellow retweeted
Trump is a traitor to American values.
“Zelensky could have settled this war many times. And he chooses not to. He wants to make problems for the world… He better damn well stop.”
Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia is bombing its cities and killing its people. And Trump is threatening Zelenskyy instead of demanding that Putin end his fucking war.
He’s threatening to cut off intelligence Ukraine needs to defend itself. He’s making a diesel deal with Putin. Now he’s talking about Ukraine’s president as if the man defending his country is the obstacle to peace.
What the hell is happening inside our government?
I don’t know what’s being discussed behind closed doors, or whether these moves are connected to some larger plan ahead of the midterms. But the timing and the pattern are alarming as hell.
We are watching an American president put pressure on an invaded ally while making concessions to the dictator who invaded it.
Putin must be thrilled. And every American who cares about democracy, national security, and our standing in the world should be scared shitless.
Dave Rockafellow retweeted
Russia’s war in Ukraine has always been easy to understand if you were paying attention.
It was never about NATO expansion or language or land or “ethnic unification.”
It has always been about breaking a people’s ability to remain Ukrainian - to live, raise their children, preserve their identity, and build a future on their own terms.
It is genocidal. Look at the last 48 hours.
A Russian drone hits a school in Kyiv, with more than 100 school children sheltering inside.
Russia strikes the bridges that connect the city across the Dnipro.
It attacks the energy and water infrastructure Ukrainians will depend on as winter approaches.
And in occupied Oleshky, civilians are starving while Russian forces confiscate food dropped by Ukrainian drones and then interrogates people who dare to accept aid to keep from dying of hunger.
Schools. Bridges. Power. Food.
These are the basic architecture of civilian life.
And this pattern did not begin this week. It stretches through destroyed cities, deported children, pressure on Ukrainian language and identity in occupied territory, and the systematic dismantling of normal life wherever Russia occupies.
Dave Rockafellow retweeted
I found watching Trump’s UN speech today deeply depressing. It is a matter of national shame and humiliation that he is our president. Every country in the world, friend and foe alike, sees we are governed by a vainglorious fool.
Dave Rockafellow retweeted
I've been so AI pilled, that I've done a complete 180.
AI is a money incinerator. It's a collective hallucination. Everyone sees everyone else shoveling money into the incinerator and starts doing the same. Everyone just keeps shoveling money hoping that one day the engine starts running. And maybe it will. But it isn’t.
AI is expensive. Especially when you have to actually pay for tokens. And the real systemic work, the stuff that replaces people because it is autonomous, runs on tokens.
The question isn’t whether your AI systems are cheaper than Americans. It’s whether they’re cheaper than people in Latam, Southeast Asia, or Africa. They aren’t.
AI also suffers from broken clock syndrome. When we task AI with doing a specific task, it can often give a quality or correct output. But the problems arise when we ask an AI to produce that type of output with different inputs. If you don't know the process it used to give you the initial correct output, there's no way to know if it can take your input type and generate a quality output repeatedly or if it is just a broken clock that happened to be right.
So in order to build durable results with AI, you need to build the process the AI is going to use to generate the output. You need to build in oversight. And the more varied the inputs, the more complex the output, the more granularly you need to control the functions within the black box. Otherwise, your fail rate is going to be high. And this failure rate increases whenever there is nested processing and thinking.
Then there is the cost of building these systems in the first place. If you actually want something that works, you need to invest considerable resources into the build. Senior talent to develop it, token costs during calibration, ongoing maintenance when it breaks, etc.
The common argument against this is to “let AI do the building on its own.” The problem with this is AI doesn’t think. It doesn’t reason. It guesses the next most likely thing in a series. So it will build something for you that will look like a house, but you go in the basement and the foundation is upside down. It’s got wires running through water pipes. The hot and cold water taps are reversed. It looks right from a distance, but any deeper level of scrutiny the illusion falls apart.
Nobody is making money from the “work” that AI is doing. If they were, we would have such a rapid consolidation of wealth nobody would know what is happening. Every industry would be consolidated overnight into unassailable monopolies.
I hear from lots of people who say they are making money from using AI. And my question to them is how much did it cost to build and what’s the payback period.
Large companies are pulling back on AI investment. These are the companies that should be most able to realize a positive ROI on AI.
So the question is whether they are uniquely incompetent at development and deployment or are smaller businesses bad at calculating cost and ROI?
This results in our current environment: The only people making money in AI are the people who are selling it.
It remains to be seen when using AI is profitable and how much work it can profitably replace.
Dave Rockafellow retweeted
LOL! Best Hitler-bunker-scene rendition so far!
“You didn’t tell me these were the same Persians that defeated the Romans.”
"Have Bari Weiss write why high oil prices are actually a good thing..."
