I see a lot of hot takes on why bonds are selling off so aggressively today. It's not an export ban (zero discernible correlation, and zero reaction in bonds when the news broke and was later retracted). It's not a 5 year auction (caused a blip, but didn't stick). It's not higher oil prices (bit player in the overnight session, at best). The initial pop at 9:45am was entirely driven by S&P PMI data. A majority of the selling since then has occurred in stunningly linear fashion without any "event risk" volume spikes. It has also largely tracked with stock losses. This is exactly what it looks like when a big outlier in econ data hits a nervous market that's on the edge of its seat waiting for data to speak to a recent shake up in the Fed rate hike outlook. It's not so much S&P PMI data itself as it is the risk it creates for next week's data. Safer to sell now and cover later if S&P ends up having painted too bullish a picture of next week's data. ZQV7 (October 2027 Fed Funds Futures, which capture September 2027 Fed Meeting odds) peaked simultaneously with 10yr yields after rising more than 20bps in implied yield from this morning (10s only rose 16bps).