Moonlighting as an Indian public markets investor. DYOD. Nothing is Investment recommendations.
Joined December 2020
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Inspired by @persistencecap @9onecapital @SamitVartak @amitmantri @2point2capital @MGSolidarity and their efforts to discuss ideas in depth on X, wanted to share our thesis on PVR INOX. 馃У
Disclaimer: may hold a position. Academic discussion only, not investment advice.
Reaffirming our view on Aptus: a 20% ROE, 7.8% ROA lender at ~2x book, near its lowest multiple in years (median 3.8x).
To FY31: ~28% IRR at a 2.75x exit, ~21% if the multiple never moves, ~12% even at 1.5x with slower growth.
Earnings growth and book value compounding does the work, multiple expansion is the bonus.
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One of our favourite mental models: when the market de-rates an entire industry, it throws the baby out with the bathwater.
The highest-quality names often fall more than the industry, then re-rate first and come out stronger.
We think Aptus Value Housing is one. A 馃У. Please share your thoughts, and happy to discuss this!
This is just for academic purposes, not a recommendation. Please do your own research and diligence.
One of our favourite mental models: when the market de-rates an entire industry, it throws the baby out with the bathwater.
The highest-quality names often fall more than the industry, then re-rate first and come out stronger.
We think Aptus Value Housing is one. A 馃У. Please share your thoughts, and happy to discuss this!
This is just for academic purposes, not a recommendation. Please do your own research and diligence.
What we watch: the small-business book, rivals moving into its ticket size, Andhra Pradesh at 43% of AUM, and growth fading.
Each one runs through the multiple. On its own, none costs more than ~2 points of IRR at a 2.75x exit.
A great lender at a bad-news price. Check out the full deck here - files.catbox.moe/vp77o1.pdf
Would love to hear your thoughts...
Not investment advice.