The Psycho Analyst

In my view, Andrew Dudum’s number one mistake may have been taking $HIMS public in 2021. As a long investor, I’ll always be grateful for that opportunity. But in hindsight, it was probably far too early, given the sheer scale of what Hims is trying to build. Hims is basically still a startup, except it’s trying to build an entire personalized healthcare platform in full public view, under the watchful eyes of investors, most of whom can’t see any further into the future than a weather forecast. And yet, I suspect this monumental task of balancing a long-term platform buildout with the market’s obsession over the next quarter will ultimately make Andrew a much better founder and CEO. It’s an extraordinary learning experience, even if a rather painful one. Don’t forget, Andrew is only 38. It’s incredibly rare to see someone that young with this much experience leading a publicly traded company, navigating regulatory battles, international expansion, acquisitions, partnerships, and the relentless pressure of quarterly expectations. What I find particularly interesting is how aggressively he continues to prioritize the future, even when it comes at the expense of the present. That’s an increasingly rare quality in public markets. You almost have to go back to Amazon in the early 2000s to find a similarly striking example of a young founder willing to endure extraordinary short-term pain to build something much larger. I believe $HIMS will eventually get there. But the road won’t be all sunshine and rainbows. This is not investment advice. Always do your research.

If you're a student of market history, you would know that violent up and down moves in rapid succession are the hallmarks of bear markets Of course, many of the newly anointed bull market heroes have only experienced the era of "stonks always go up" and thus have no conception of what a bear market looks like Lucky for them, they have OddStats to lay it out in the objective data

If you're a student of market history, you would know that violent up and down moves in rapid succession are the hallmarks of bear markets Of course, many of the newly anointed bull market heroes have only experienced the era of "stonks always go up" and thus have no conception of what a bear market looks like Lucky for them, they have OddStats to lay it out in the objective data

Bloomington, Indiana, has banned artificial superintelligence. The city council voted 7–0 to bar superintelligent AI within city limits, including through apps and browsers. Violators face fines and possible prosecution. Lifting the ban would take approval from more than 95% of registered voters.

The biggest overlooked insight from $IREN earnings call is that the company is preserving the option to buy cheaper GPUs Near the end of the call, Jefferies asked whether GPU purchase prices might rise enough to eliminate today's attractive rental economics. Daniel Roberts gave a rather unexpected answer. IREN has deliberately avoided purchasing all the GPUs it expects to need next year. Why? Because if financing remains tight and datacenter construction keeps slipping, GPU prices could actually fall. Think about that for a moment. The conventional AI bull thesis says GPUs are scarce, so buy as many as possible. IREN's argument is more sophisticated: the economic value of a GPU depends on having somewhere to power and operate it If the industry has more chips available than deployable power and datacenter infrastructure, the scarcity premium can migrate from the GPUs toward the power connections. Here is management explicitly positioning for the possibility that financial scarcity makes one part of the AI supply chain cheaper while another remains scarce. IREN is effectively trying to own the long duration infrastructure option without committing prematurely to every generation of depreciating compute. This is not the first tine the management takes a non consensual direction. In the recent past, they avoided signing too many deals, and in retrospect it now seems a smart move (look at Nscale).

BREAKING: Trump has requested UFC fighters like Khabib Nurmagomedov, Justin Gaethje, Daniel Cormier and Kayla harris to "defend us from the Lunatic Left."

The forward P/E obsession is absolutely bizarre. Analyst earnings forecasts peak right before cyclical downturns. In tech/semis, hyperscaler capex has created one-time revenue spikes, masking real valuation risk and making concentrated indexes look deceptively cheap.

comparing a 7yo company with a 37yo company already tells you why a nebius will not have the same upside and ceiling as a baseten. nebius has spent $1.5b acq companies that can help them build the inference platform to look like a baseten. the talent and customers that go to baseten aren’t the same. nebius is never their first choice. for one it’s the platform is the core business and for the other it’s their s1 checkbox to show “path to margin expansion” or “path to profitability”. building data centres against inference demand is a far more viable and scalable product business than trying to upsell inference as an org trained to buy and sell commodities (gpu).

JUST IN: Citrini Research advises clients to cover $NBIS short position and to go short $IREN instead. "One quick swap we are making is $IREN for $NBIS on the short leg of the neocloud pair mostly to derisk on earnings (IREN announced and popped harder than the sector today, NBIS earnings is next week). IREN is also more stretched in balance sheet, which matters since financing reflexivity is a huge part of this."