Hunting small caps | Turnarounds | Capital cycle | Special sits. Professionally managing capital.✍️ Deep dives • Articles • Portfolio upd. Not investment advice

Joined November 2023
📌Main content in The Value Pond (link bio & answer) Full thesis published: 🇬🇧ABF (Retail-FoodCo)🔒 🇬🇧Dunelm (Retail)🔒 🇫🇷Foraco (Drilling serv.)🔓 🇭🇺WizzAir(Airlines)🔓 🇫🇷Forvia(Autoparts)🔓 🇺🇸 Dauch (Autoparts)🔓 🇩🇪Bayer AG (Agro-Pharma)🔓 📊....thesis updates, portfolio disclosure & more. $FRVIA $BAYN $BAYRY $WIZZ $WIZZ.L $WZZZY $FAR $FAR.TO $DNLM $DNLM.L $DCH
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The Value Pond retweeted
Foraco Q3 FY26 Snapshot Sales $86.2m (+21.4%). EBITDA $15.4m (+8.2%), Margin 17.8% (-220bps). Net Profit $4.4m (-18.9%). Rig utilization 53% (vs 35% in Q3 25). Despite the volumes and the rig utilisation, cost inflation and mobilisation costs on new contracts are still keeping the improvement from showing up at the bottom line. $FAR $FAR.TO
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Foraco Q3 FY26 Snapshot Sales $86.2m (+21.4%). EBITDA $15.4m (+8.2%), Margin 17.8% (-220bps). Net Profit $4.4m (-18.9%). Rig utilization 53% (vs 35% in Q3 25). Despite the volumes and the rig utilisation, cost inflation and mobilisation costs on new contracts are still keeping the improvement from showing up at the bottom line. $FAR $FAR.TO
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As always, worth your time. @JRuizRuiz letter gives you a brilliant piece of context: if you'd spent the last six months in a cave, this alone would tell you where today's friction points are with very good judgement and balance.
Energía, deuda e inteligencia artificial... ¿Hacia qué crisis vamos? Ya está disponible nuestra Carta a los Inversores del 3T26, firmada por @JRuizRuiz, director de Inversiones de Horos. 📩 «Separarse del rebaño puede resultar incómodo, pero esa incomodidad es parte inherente de una forma de invertir que busca aprovechar, con visión de largo plazo, las ineficiencias del mercado.» 🔗 Léela aquí horosam.com/carta-a-los-inve…
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As always, worth your time. @JRuizRuiz letter gives you a brilliant piece of context: if you'd spent the last six months in a cave, this alone would tell you where today's friction points are with very good judgement and balance.
Energía, deuda e inteligencia artificial... ¿Hacia qué crisis vamos? Ya está disponible nuestra Carta a los Inversores del 3T26, firmada por @JRuizRuiz, director de Inversiones de Horos. 📩 «Separarse del rebaño puede resultar incómodo, pero esa incomodidad es parte inherente de una forma de invertir que busca aprovechar, con visión de largo plazo, las ineficiencias del mercado.» 🔗 Léela aquí horosam.com/carta-a-los-inve…
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La gota malaya.
🔔 BOLLORE SE 📈 Achat de 3 965 569 actions à 3.79 € (Total de 15 029 507 €) 👤 Bolloré Participations SE 📋 Administrateur de Bolloré SE 🏢 COMPAGNIE DE LODET Société Eur 📅 Le 12 octobre
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Rounding 75% of Bolloré and ~62% of indirect ownership of own shares. $BOL
🔔 BOLLORE SE (2) 📈 Achats 👤 Bolloré Participations SE (Administrateur de Bolloré SE) : 5 524 738 (20 366 128 €) 📅 Le 08 octobre
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🔔 BOLLORE SE (2) 📈 Achats 👤 Bolloré Participations SE (Administrateur de Bolloré SE) : 5 524 738 (20 366 128 €) 📅 Le 08 octobre
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Forvia Target Raised to EUR14.00 from EUR10.50 by BofA $FRVIA
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Canibalismo a cámara lenta
🔎 Déclaration AMF : SOFIBOL (holding de Vincent Bolloré) a acheté 9 396 actions Compagnie de l'Odet le 23/09/2026 à 1 290 € sur Euronext Paris. 💰 Montant : ~12,1 M€ 📊 Soit 66,1 % du volume de la séance. Ça resserre, ça resserre… 🔒 #Bolloré #Odet #AMF
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Liberty Global avanza en la venta de aproximadamente el 50% de Wyre, su plataforma de fibra en Bélgica, con Ardian, InfraVia y Ontario Teachers en la fase final. Junto a la venta de torres de VodafoneZiggo por 669 millones de euros, ayudaría a reducir el apalancamiento de Ziggo Group de cara a su OPV en 2027. $LBTYA bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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These two purchases add ~1.7m shares to Bolloré SE's indirect treasury stock. More interesting: they tighten the squeeze on taking Odet private. $BOL
Déclarations AMF du 23/09 : la galaxie se resserre . – ODET achète BOL: +1 000 000 actions Bolloré à 3,64 € en moyenne (≈ 3,6 M€) – Sofibol acheté ODET: +1 798 actions Odet à 1 290,57 € en moyenne (≈ 2,3 M€) Le tout en une seule séance, le 18/09. $BOL $ODET
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✈️ This slide is widely repeated in Ryanair earnings presentations, claiming a wide cost leadership gap over rivals. But does it hold up? ❗The table contains one inaccuracy (1️⃣) , one nuance worth mentioning (2️⃣), and one rather cheeky omission (3️⃣). Let's go. 🧵 (1/) $WIZZ $WIZZ.L $RYA $RYAAY
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Cobas reached 10% of Wizz Air capital. Doubled since November despite current situation. For me, makes all sense. Lowest unit costs in Europe on a single, efficient fleet. This is not trivial: Under a different hedging strategy, Ryanair's Fuel per ASK stood at 2.06 cents vs. Wizz Air's 1.64 cents. Ryanair av fuel cost per tonne is around 830$ vs 1.172$ for Wizz. Fleet efficiency. An Airbus orderbook that's an asset in itself while bottlenecks last (there's a premium on availability now). Prepayments to Airbus that read closer to net cash. And a European retirement schedule that takes capacity out faster than it comes in. You have the full thesis and update in my Sustªck. Link in bio. $WIZZ
Insider activity at Wizz Air this week, worth a note for the size. 🆕 Brian Franke (Indigo Partners) bought 33,000 shares at £10.60, £349.8k. Initial notification. First since joining the board in June.. ⬆️Separately, Cobas has crossed 8% of the capital, from 5% last November. $WIZZ $WZZZY
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Cobas reached 10% of Wizz Air capital. Doubled since November despite current situation. For me, makes all sense. Lowest unit costs in Europe on a single, efficient fleet. This is not trivial: Under a different hedging strategy, Ryanair's Fuel per ASK stood at 2.06 cents vs. Wizz Air's 1.64 cents. Ryanair av fuel cost per tonne is around 830$ vs 1.172$ for Wizz. Fleet efficiency. An Airbus orderbook that's an asset in itself while bottlenecks last (there's a premium on availability now). Prepayments to Airbus that read closer to net cash. And a European retirement schedule that takes capacity out faster than it comes in. You have the full thesis and update in my Sustªck. Link in bio. $WIZZ
Insider activity at Wizz Air this week, worth a note for the size. 🆕 Brian Franke (Indigo Partners) bought 33,000 shares at £10.60, £349.8k. Initial notification. First since joining the board in June.. ⬆️Separately, Cobas has crossed 8% of the capital, from 5% last November. $WIZZ $WZZZY
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The Value Pond retweeted
Grifols Class B offers ~0.6x book value, a ~30% discount to Class A, and a higher potential dividend yield. If the recovery continues and the A/B discount normalizes, Class B could benefit from both the underlying recovery and discount narrowing.
Value investing is about buying good businesses when they’re going through a difficult period. Grifols is in one of those moments right now. That’s when opportunities can appear, and as investors, we have to decide whether to take them or let them pass.
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📅 Another step towards the Ziggo Group spin-off. VodafoneZiggo's Dutch towers sold for €669m at ~16x EBITDA (quite decent), with proceeds retiring debt at Ziggo Group. Wyre and smaller assets still to go to hit the €1.2-1.4bn disposal target before the listing. $LBTYA $LBTYK
Have my own sketch of the Sum of the parts case of Liberty and I believe enough of this fiction to see several upside. They did it before. The Malone (now Fries) playbook again. 🧵(1/6) $LBTYK $LBTYA
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ABF FY2026 trading update, broadly in line. Primark: sales +2% cc (Q4 +2% cc), LFL (2.6)%. Weak Continental Europe LFL. Adj. op margin 10%. Home delivery in Great Britain for FY27. FY27 guide: Primark topline growth mainly from space, the rest of business broadly stable. Sugar is the exception with incremental losses caused by gas prices and inventory surplus in Europe $ABF xitter.cf/TheValuePond/status/20…
Associated British Foods, owner of Primark is a compelling SOTP. Considering Retail EBIT alone, the entire group already trades at 17x EV/EBIT, the same multiple as H&M. The food divisions, generating over £600M of combined EBIT, are priced at zero. No net financial debt. A thread🧵. $ABF
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