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📌Main content in The Value Pond (link bio & answer)
Full thesis published:
🇬🇧ABF (Retail-FoodCo)🔒
🇬🇧Dunelm (Retail)🔒
🇫🇷Foraco (Drilling serv.)🔓
🇭🇺WizzAir(Airlines)🔓
🇫🇷Forvia(Autoparts)🔓
🇺🇸 Dauch (Autoparts)🔓
🇩🇪Bayer AG (Agro-Pharma)🔓
📊....thesis updates, portfolio disclosure & more.
$FRVIA $BAYN $BAYRY $WIZZ $WIZZ.L
$WZZZY $FAR $FAR.TO $DNLM $DNLM.L $DCH
The Value Pond retweeted
Foraco Q3 FY26 Snapshot
Sales $86.2m (+21.4%). EBITDA $15.4m (+8.2%), Margin 17.8% (-220bps). Net Profit $4.4m (-18.9%). Rig utilization 53% (vs 35% in Q3 25).
Despite the volumes and the rig utilisation, cost inflation and mobilisation costs on new contracts are still keeping the improvement from showing up at the bottom line.
$FAR $FAR.TO
Foraco Q3 FY26 Snapshot
Sales $86.2m (+21.4%). EBITDA $15.4m (+8.2%), Margin 17.8% (-220bps). Net Profit $4.4m (-18.9%). Rig utilization 53% (vs 35% in Q3 25).
Despite the volumes and the rig utilisation, cost inflation and mobilisation costs on new contracts are still keeping the improvement from showing up at the bottom line.
$FAR $FAR.TO
The Value Pond retweeted
As always, worth your time. @JRuizRuiz letter gives you a brilliant piece of context: if you'd spent the last six months in a cave, this alone would tell you where today's friction points are with very good judgement and balance.
Energía, deuda e inteligencia artificial...
¿Hacia qué crisis vamos?
Ya está disponible nuestra Carta a los Inversores del 3T26, firmada por @JRuizRuiz, director de Inversiones de Horos. 📩
«Separarse del rebaño puede resultar incómodo, pero esa incomodidad es parte inherente de una forma de invertir que busca aprovechar, con visión de largo plazo, las ineficiencias del mercado.»
🔗 Léela aquí
horosam.com/carta-a-los-inve…
As always, worth your time. @JRuizRuiz letter gives you a brilliant piece of context: if you'd spent the last six months in a cave, this alone would tell you where today's friction points are with very good judgement and balance.
Energía, deuda e inteligencia artificial...
¿Hacia qué crisis vamos?
Ya está disponible nuestra Carta a los Inversores del 3T26, firmada por @JRuizRuiz, director de Inversiones de Horos. 📩
«Separarse del rebaño puede resultar incómodo, pero esa incomodidad es parte inherente de una forma de invertir que busca aprovechar, con visión de largo plazo, las ineficiencias del mercado.»
🔗 Léela aquí
horosam.com/carta-a-los-inve…
Rounding 75% of Bolloré and ~62% of indirect ownership of own shares. $BOL
The Value Pond retweeted
🔔 BOLLORE SE (2)
📈 Achats
👤 Bolloré Participations SE (Administrateur de Bolloré SE) : 5 524 738 (20 366 128 €)
📅 Le 08 octobre
Forvia Target Raised to EUR14.00 from EUR10.50 by BofA $FRVIA
The Value Pond retweeted
Liberty Global avanza en la venta de aproximadamente el 50% de Wyre, su plataforma de fibra en Bélgica, con Ardian, InfraVia y Ontario Teachers en la fase final.
Junto a la venta de torres de VodafoneZiggo por 669 millones de euros, ayudaría a reducir el apalancamiento de Ziggo Group de cara a su OPV en 2027. $LBTYA
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
These two purchases add ~1.7m shares to Bolloré SE's indirect treasury stock. More interesting: they tighten the squeeze on taking Odet private. $BOL
The Value Pond retweeted
The Value Pond retweeted
Cobas reached 10% of Wizz Air capital. Doubled since November despite current situation. For me, makes all sense.
Lowest unit costs in Europe on a single, efficient fleet.
This is not trivial: Under a different hedging strategy, Ryanair's Fuel per ASK stood at 2.06 cents vs. Wizz Air's 1.64 cents. Ryanair av fuel cost per tonne is around 830$ vs 1.172$ for Wizz. Fleet efficiency.
An Airbus orderbook that's an asset in itself while bottlenecks last (there's a premium on availability now). Prepayments to Airbus that read closer to net cash. And a European retirement schedule that takes capacity out faster than it comes in.
You have the full thesis and update in my Sustªck. Link in bio.
$WIZZ
Cobas reached 10% of Wizz Air capital. Doubled since November despite current situation. For me, makes all sense.
Lowest unit costs in Europe on a single, efficient fleet.
This is not trivial: Under a different hedging strategy, Ryanair's Fuel per ASK stood at 2.06 cents vs. Wizz Air's 1.64 cents. Ryanair av fuel cost per tonne is around 830$ vs 1.172$ for Wizz. Fleet efficiency.
An Airbus orderbook that's an asset in itself while bottlenecks last (there's a premium on availability now). Prepayments to Airbus that read closer to net cash. And a European retirement schedule that takes capacity out faster than it comes in.
You have the full thesis and update in my Sustªck. Link in bio.
$WIZZ
The Value Pond retweeted
Grifols Class B offers ~0.6x book value, a ~30% discount to Class A, and a higher potential dividend yield. If the recovery continues and the A/B discount normalizes, Class B could benefit from both the underlying recovery and discount narrowing.
Semapa's control structure simplifies at the top into a single company. A small step in the right direction.
$SEM
jornaldenegocios.pt/empresas…
The Value Pond retweeted
📅 Another step towards the Ziggo Group spin-off.
VodafoneZiggo's Dutch towers sold for €669m at ~16x EBITDA (quite decent), with proceeds retiring debt at Ziggo Group. Wyre and smaller assets still to go to hit the €1.2-1.4bn disposal target before the listing.
$LBTYA $LBTYK
ABF FY2026 trading update, broadly in line.
Primark: sales +2% cc (Q4 +2% cc), LFL (2.6)%. Weak Continental Europe LFL. Adj. op margin 10%. Home delivery in Great Britain for FY27.
FY27 guide: Primark topline growth mainly from space, the rest of business broadly stable. Sugar is the exception with incremental losses caused by gas prices and inventory surplus in Europe
$ABF
xitter.cf/TheValuePond/status/20…
Associated British Foods, owner of Primark is a compelling SOTP. Considering Retail EBIT alone, the entire group already trades at 17x EV/EBIT, the same multiple as H&M. The food divisions, generating over £600M of combined EBIT, are priced at zero. No net financial debt. A thread🧵.
$ABF






















