The Early Shift

Brandan Bidois -- Pirates A-to-Z They have baseball in Australia? I mean, I guess I know that they do. I’m familiar with the concept of international signings of players from down under, but I can’t say that I know a damn thing about how they do it there. Certainly not like I understand the model of the game in Latin America and throughout Asia. Turns out baseball there starts with local clubs, and the best kids can go on to represent their state. There’s also a four-team pro league called the Australian Baseball League (ABL) that plays during the Aussie summer, which happens to be our offseason. It opens next Thursday, Nov. 19. Check it out on ESPN8: The Ocho. Australia has had its moments in the bigs. Perth-born Liam Hendriks led the AL with 38 saves for the White Sox in 2021. And after the year Brandan Bidois had in the minors in 2025, I was looking forward to seeing what another Aussie right-hander might do in the Pirates’ bullpen. We got a brief look before the Pirates sent him to Miami at the deadline for Lake Bachar, another 'B' last name player we covered earlier this week. Of all the guys we traded this season, Bidois is probably the one I hated seeing go most. Yep, even more than Sammy Stafura. Here’s why. Revisiting the Origin Story Bidois grew up in Brisbane, where he played for his hometown Bandits in the ABL. He was 18 when he pitched for Australia at the 2019 U-18 World Cup in South Korea, giving up two runs in 13 innings and touching 90 mph. Pirates scout Tony Harris saw enough and Pittsburgh signed him as an international free agent that September. His development was interrupted in 2022 by -- what do you think, any guesses? -- yep, Tommy John surgery. So don’t let anyone tell you it’s a problem only with U.S. high schools and colleges. He looked good coming back at the end of 2023 but then had a bit of a downer 2024. Then came 2025. Wowza. Bidois pitched at all four full-season levels, put up a 0.74 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP with 69 strikeouts in 61 innings, and was named the Pirates’ minor league Reliever of the Year. You may have heard this part -- over 6 weeks between AA and AAA, he faced 64 batters across 18 innings. Not one of them got a hit. Suffice it to say, if there were any problems with the Pirates’ 2026 bullpen, Pirates' management knew thet had a 24-year-old Aussie “keen as mustard” to make his MLB debut. Looking Back at 2026 It’s difficult what to make of Bidois’ 2026. He was coming off a season where he was near-unhittable, with a four-seam fastball-cutter-curveball combo that he struggled at times to locate. And that was really the story of 2026 -- missing his spots. In 20.0 IP to start the year at AAA, Bidois gave up 17 BB, 21 H and 17 ER for an 8.10 ERA. When the Pirates were in the throes of their bullpen meltdown, it would have been nice to bring up the 2025 version, but they were reluctant to start his clock while he struggled so mightily. They ultimately couldn’t afford to keep him down as the blown saves piled up, so on May 13, Bidois made his major league debut. It didn’t go well. In his first eight appearances, he gave up 4 HR. Across 15.2 IP through the end of June, he had a 6.32 ERA and was sent back down. And a month later he was sent to the Marlins. On the Horizon -- 2027 & Beyond Unfortunately things didn’t go much better in the Marlins system. He made 3 appearances for AAA Jacksonville before getting shut down with arm fatigue. According to the Miami Herald, Bill Hezel, the Marlins’ Director of Pitching, is pretty high on Bidois: “He had a great year last year, throws very hard,” Hezel said. “When we found out he was someone we could acquire, we were excited. We feel confident we will be able to get his change-up in an even better spot.” I’m sure Bidois would like to forget 2026 ever happened and come back fresh in 2027. If he can recapture whatever it was that got into his system in 2025 that made him so dang good, there is absolutely a role for him moving forward. There's definitely a bit of Mason Montgomery in him -- with a tweak of the mechanics, he could be really nasty. And of course, it would be super Piratey for one of the relievers we sent packing in 2026 to turn into the next great bullpen phenom. A Final Word As bummed as I am that we traded Bidois, I may be mourning the loss of Australian-inspired memes and turns of phrase most of all. I never even got to call him the Thunder from Down Under. I was saving that one for his first save. Ah well. I hope he gets healthy, finds the strike zone and makes me look smart for hating the trade. Preferably against the Cubs. #letsgobucs

Joey Bart: Pirates A-to-Z Oh boy, the day I’d been waiting patiently for is finally here! When I came up with the idea of writing an in-depth retrospective on every player who donned a Pirates jersey in 2026, I knew I would early on have to spend my 3am hour contemplating the late, great Joey Bart. What a lucky guy I am. So it’s obviously opposite day at the Early Shift. If you’ve hung out here last offseason into the first half, you know that I was Bart’s biggest critic who couldn’t wait for him to be traded and leave town. So it’s only fitting that I should be made to spill ink on him as some sort of penance for my advocacy. Revisiting the Origin Story There was a time when Joey Bart was a great big deal. Selected in the 27th round of the 2015 draft out of high school, he elected to go to college at Georgia Tech where he was declared by scouts the best catcher to ever come through that program. It was high praise given that catchers Jason Varitek and Matt Wieters were also products of the same school. Bart was selected 2nd overall by the Giants in 2018 and was expected to become the next Buster Posey. He was billed as the total package -- a HR-hitting, high-OBP guy who had well above-average defensive skills. He did a quick run through the minors where he continued to hit before debuting in the COVID-shortened 2020 season. It didn’t go well. More time at AAA would follow where he would continually hit well -- he has an .840 OPS across ~1,200 PA in the minors -- but just couldn’t seem to get it going with the Giants. He had a .623 OPS in 162 games for San Fran across three major league seasons. Worst, his defense that was once declared the best in Georgia Tech history had all but evaporated. A -6 DRS in 700 innings for the Giants in 2022 with a .660 OPS, his most substantial year there, suggested the guy was just a failed prospect. Days ahead of the 2024 season, he was unceremoniously traded to the Pirates for Austin Strickland, a pitcher who hasn't gotten past A+ in multiple attempts. Bart joined the Pirates at a time when the team’s own highly-regarded 1st round catching prospect was underperforming. Henry Davis premiered the previous season and had flopped both offensively and defensively, stuck in RF in a particular low point of the Cherington era. Bart was brought on alongside Yasmani Grandal to stabilize the catcher position, and he ended up having a breakout season. Bart achieved a 2.2 WAR in 80 games for the Pirates in 2024, with a .265/.337/.462 line that included 13 HR. Even though his defense was still subpar, there was every expectation in 2025 that Bart was a signficiant solution at backstop. And then he put up a .699 OPS with 4 HR and a -6 DRS in 332 PA. “Newman!” Looking Back at 2026 I know this about myself, but I tend to be harsher on players who get my hopes up and then dash them. I was pretty high on Bart before the 2025 season, so when he underperformed, I felt tricked. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice… you can’t get fooled again, amiright? My smear campaign to oust Bart focused on his $2.53M contract for 2026 in his second year of arbitration. In a year where the Pirates had dramatically increased payroll and brought in a bunch of bats, Cherington had passed on free agent left-handed starters and was messing around with Jose Urquidy. Surely Bart’s salary could be better spent elsewhere. The return from injury of Endy Rodriguez and the acquisition of Rafael Flores Jr. suggested a potential logjam at catcher. But I’d been overly optimistic about their timetables. They would spend the beginning of the year in AAA, and that meant more innings for Bart. Unfortunately, there was little improvement for him in 2026. In 62 PA across 21 games for the Pirates, he had a .670 OPS with similar lackluster defense. With Endy up and hitting well in mid-May, the writing was on the wall. Bart was flipped in mid-June to the Braves for a familiar face, Hunter Stratton. Bart appeared in 20 games for Atlanta and was flipped again at the deadline to the White Sox where he went hitless in three starts before getting beaned and suffering a fifth metacarpal fracture in his left hand It was an unceremonious end to his 2026 season. Born in Buford, GA, it had to feel good to be sent to Atlanta only to be shipped off to Chicago two months later where he promptly breaks his hand. Wah waaah. On the Horizon -- 2027 & Beyond Bart is a member of the Chicago White Sox, and in a typical season, he would likely miss the first month as he continues coming back from the broken hand. But more likely, he’ll be fully healed by the time the season commences sometime later in 2027. He is entering his final year of arbitration eligibility before becoming a free agent in 2028, so it is a bit of a put-up-or-shut-up season for him. The White Sox were acquiring him as they awaited starting catcher Kyle Teel’s return from the IL. Bart will have a shot at being Teel’s backup for Chicago assuming they don’t acquire anyone else this offseason. Bart’s .799 OPS for the Pirates in 2024 likely gets him multiple attempts to catch on (a pun!) for other teams. Catcher is a position without much depth across the sport, so a backup with HR potential who isn’t a complete brick wall behind the plate is going to continue getting opportunities. A Final Word The catcher position has been a big mess for the Pirates since Francisco Cervelli left town in 2019. The emergence of Flores last year was a silver lining and I have a lot of hope for Easton Carmichael and Axiel Plaz coming up from the minors. It seems 2024 was just a big ol' mirage for Bart who got the hopes up of Pirates fans desperate for offense. Looking at Bart’s Statcast data, there’s nothing all that unique about his 2024 data. He’s always had above-average bat speed. When it’s going well, his barrel % and chase % are roughly average and that bat speed gets the job done. But there is also a healthy amount of luck and sequencing in that 2024 data, with him having improved across the board in 2025 and yet dropped 100 points of OPS. It just goes to show what a difficult game baseball is. In the end, I have no hard feelings for Bart despite my constant, at time annoying calls to send him packing. The rollercoaster from #2 overall pick to trade deadline fodder is soul-sucking and nothing to celebrate. There. Look at me. A Joey Bart remembrance with no profanity or schadenfreude. I’m proud of myself. #LetsGoBucs

Series Announcement & The End of the Experiment Tomorrow marks 53 more days until the last day of the year. And it turns out that the Pirates had 53 players in 2026 log at least one inning with the major league club. Starting tomorrow, I will count down until the end of the year by looking backwards and forwards at each player in alphabetical order -- I’m calling it “The Pirates: A-to-Z.” We kick off tomorrow with Braxton Ashcraft. This will also mark the end of my yearlong experiment. With the exception of the recent series with guest writers, I’ve authored one 800-900 word column every morning since January 1. I pledged to do it through the end of the year, and the series that starts tomorrow will be my final one under this challenge. In the new year, I will continue writing but I’ve decided to forgo it as a daily thing. Sometimes life gets in the way and I change around my day to accommodate this, and that’s a little too much to be sustainable. I’m thinking every 2-3 days in the offseason, and then more frequently in-season. I have time to change my mind, but that’s where I’m at right now. Also plenty of time to eulogize what this platform has meant to me. For now, one more series to see this through. A huge thank you to everyone who reads, likes and shares. You mean the absolute world to me. #LetsGoBucs

Lonnie White Jr. Is Back From the Dead After a couple seasons of looking like a complete bust, Lonnie White Jr. is suddenly back on the prospect radar. And not just a little bit. He's gone from a guy we'd all but written off to someone who might actually contribute in Pittsburgh in 2027. Talk about an unlikely opening paragraph. White was about as far from prospect status as you could get, having weathered a tumultuous couple seasons repeating the A+ level. But the lightbulb turned on this past season, and after (finally) dominating in Greensboro, he went on to AA Altoona and had a breakout season. As we contemplate how to fill roles on the field should anyone go down in 2027, White should probably be on a shortlist of guys who deserve a shot. This Was Not Expected Before the 2026 season, folks were most familiar with White as a part of the upside talent acquired when Hank Davis was selected as an underslot #1 in 2021. White was taken as the CB-B selection eight picks ahead of Bubba Chandler. Injuries kept him off the field until 2023 when he looked pretty good between rookie ball and Bradenton, But that’s when the troubles started. When I say that White was off the prospect map, I mean utterly and completely. In 2024, he put up a .167/.275/.340 performance in 375 PA at Greensboro. It might have been thought of as an aberration, except that he wasn’t much better the next season in 2025 with a .723 OPS. Once a fixture of Pirates Top-30 lists, he fell off by the end of 2025. I frankly had forgotten about him as he set out to repeat A+ for the third time in 2026. Who is This Guy? It’s easy to forget that, as arduous a time as he had since being drafted in 2021, White was still just 23 years old at the start of the 2026 season. But given his narrative, it was a “put up or shut up” season for him. And the dude absolutely rose to the occasion. White looked like a completely different hitter to start the season, with a .298/.413/.595 line with 7 HR in just 104 PA that got him promoted to AA Altoona. And after an adjustment period there, he started raking again, putting up an .866 OPS with another 19 HR. While there is some swing-and-miss in his profile (a 29.6% K-rate that is just barely acceptable), he complements his bat with speed on the base paths (21 SB) and above-average defense at all three outfield positions. A Look to 2027 White will likely start at AAA alongside Gray. Also in Indy will likely be Jhostynxon Garcia, a player with a similar profile and capability of playing all outfield positions. Both he and White will be watching the outfield in Pittsburgh closely as Esmerlyn Valdez returns to pair with Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds in the Bucco outfield. Valdez’s incredible summer with the Pirates in 2026 won him the starting RF role and cemented him in the cleanup spot leading up to his injury near the end of the season. The news is that he is completely repaired and looking forward to his first full season in 2027. But we all remember what a difficult August Valdez had, with no power and a ton of strikeouts. If he comes back to start 2027 with similar production, one of these two may get a shot. The Bottom Line It’s awesome to have real outfield depth in AAA, and depending on when the MLB season starts, we’ll have additional data as Garcia and White will start up their 2027 minor league seasons this spring. No one expected White to be challenging for a role with the major league club, not after his disappearing act in 2024 and 2025. He’s back on BA’s Top-30 list at #29 -- a very difficult feat once you get excommunicated. I find myself pulling for him as an unlikely prospect. Rooting for the underdog is kind of my thing. I mean, of course it is. I’m a Pirates fan. #LetsGoBucs

Murf Gray is an X Factor Under any other circumstances, Murf Gray’s 2026 season would have been the year’s biggest development. Coming on the heels of Konnor Griffin’s meteoric rise and during a year where the Pirates were actually competing allowed his development to fly under the radar. But make no mistake -- it’s a really big deal. It isn’t every year that a prospect moves through three levels, dominating at every stop en route to a 32 HR season. Gray’s .305/.402/.567 line across roughly equal time at A, A+ and AA is one of the best offensive performances of the year in the minor leagues. So why aren’t more people freaking out about him? No Respect MLB Pipeline ranks Gray at #89 in its Top-100, with him entering the list in mid-July. But on the Baseball America side, he has yet to break the big board, settling for #4 in the Pirates system behind recently-drafted Derek Curiel (who has yet to play a single inning in the minors). I don’t get it, personally. Gray is still just 22 years old and won’t turn 23 until December 30. It took him a bit to get settled at AA, but dominated in his final 28 games with a .297/.388/.515 line over his last 121 PA with an acceptable 20.6% K rate. We talk about AA being the dividing line? Well, here he is folks. That’s a .900+ OPS. And get this -- he hit RHP better than LHP, with a .997 OPS against righties across the three levels with an .868 OPS against lefties. What’s a guy got to do to get the national media to pay any attention? Really, Defense? That’s the Concern? The oft-repeated criticism on him by arm-chair X users is that his defense is perceived as sub-standard. And really, everyone is just repeating the same 1-2 lines some mercenary blogger got paid $50 to write up for BA. I saw him play 3B in person this past season and watched several games via MiLB -- his defense certainly didn’t stand out as awful. He’s a big guy who maybe doesn’t move laterally as well as he could, but he makes the routine plays just fine. So, can he stick at third? He got 94 starts at the hot corner across three levels, and he finished with a .950 fielding percentage. He made six of his 12 errors in just 35 games at AA which is a little concerning, but I think we can also point at the overall adjustment that level requires. I’m not all that concerned. Looking Ahead to the Future All that said, I’ve come around on the idea that better defense needs to be a goal for the Pirates as they improve run prevention. I’ve advocated for KBO slugger Si Hwan Roh as a 3B target in part because he offers GG-quality defense coupled with the potential for strong offense. I could also be happy with Gray at 3B and Nick Gonzales moving back to 2B, especially with KG playing above-average defense at SS between them. But I’ve warmed to the idea that Gray is really Ryan O’Hearn’s heir apparent -- a 3B/1B/DH who gets in the lineup every night but isn’t the everyday 3B. As Flores showed over the final few weeks, there is a role for a RH hitter to pair with Spencer Horowitz at 1B. With O’Hearns departure, one could imagine a DH share between Flores and Gray that could be very effective, it’s what I dreamed about for Hank Davis and Endy Rodriguez, And of course, Roh and Gray on the same Pirates squad would also mean being able to move on from Jared Triolo. Cue the marching band. The Bottom Line 📌 If 2027 was a regular year, Gray would still likely need to start at AAA, meaning the Pirates would be without a starting 3B to begin the year. But with the lockout likely to extend into June or later, Gray may in fact be ready for “opening day” sometime next summer. The 2025 draft, which brought us both Seth Hernandez and Gray as 1A and 1B in the first round, may end up being a crowning achievement of the Cherington era, which is saying a lot after the 1-2 punch of Paul Skenes and Griffin. We will find out next year either way. #LetsGoBucs

Building a Better Bullpen Sticking with theme of the last few days, we’re arriving at the station for taking stock of the bullpen for 2027. Last year, it was the primary deficiency. As devastating as injuries were to the team’s efforts to remain competitive, it was the relief corps from early April through mid-June that really screwed the pooch. As many have noted, the bullpen rebounded fairly spectacularly starting in July, so we’re beginning from a better-than-expected position. But several of the key guys were members of the team who underperformed to begin the season. Could it happen again? How do we over-index on the bullpen to be buttoned up super tight, all while juggling a payroll already close to maxed out? It Starts at the Top Mason Montgomery ended the year in a very different position than he started it. He had a 1.25 ERA from July 1 on covering 37 appearances allowing just 5 earned runs. The addition of a sinker, credited to pitching coach Bill Murphy, along with some delivery tweaks made all the difference. He returns to claim the mantle as among the very best closers in the business. He is joined by Luke Weaver, the right-handed complement to Montgomery acquired from the Mets at the trade deadline. A former starter, he reemerged as a leverage reliever with the Yankees in 2024 and has a 3.06 ERA in 186 appearances over those three years. He was less effective with the Pirates in limited deployment (18 games) but we can blame a bad case of poison ivy he picked up in Miami almost immediately upon joining the team. He’s going to be fine. Those two form a very potent setup-closer 1-2 for the 8th and 9th -- a duo that could be among the very best in baseball. They can also alternate is needed, though Montgomery's splits don't suggest a massive issue (he is certainly better against LHB). But as we saw last year, it doesn’t matter who your closer is if the 6th and 7th inning guys are trash. Gaps in Middle Relief Yohan Ramirez had an up-and-down season, and he worries me a bit. Whereas Montgomery seems to have made a structural change to stabilize, Ramirez is one of those pitchers who simply doesn’t have a lot of control over his lively arsenal. When the sweeper is working, it works. But when it doesn’t, it can get ugly. It was a tale of two seasons for him, with a 4.51 ERA through his 26 appearance on June 3, and then a 1.43 ERA the rest of the way. If he keeps pitching like he ended the year, he’s the right-handed anchor of the middle innings, and a guy who can spell Weaver in the 8th as needed. What we don’t have is his left-handed complement. We have two LOOGY types (who we'll get to below), but not a higher-velocity guy like Gregory Soto (who is not returning and is probably too expensive). I really like AJ Minter on a short-term contract, or potentially Jojo Romero with a longer-term deal, both at roughly $7M annually. The Specialists Last year, we had two pitchers with a very similar arsenal in Evan Sisk and Brandon Eisert. Both are LOOGY types in an era that doesn’t accommodate lefty specialists. They are both soft-tossing lefties, and brother, I am done with Sisk. Of the two, I would retain Eisert and use Sisk as a part of a Mitch Keller trade. Lake Bachar is a versatile reliever who served as an opener and seemed capable of bulk innings. I like him as a swingman who can fill holes caused by injury. In our current model, he would make for a middle innings reliever who can provide bulk innings, open as needed, and potentially mature even further. So that gives us five dependable relievers: Montgomery, Weaver, Ramirez, Eisert and Bachar, and we’ve identified the need for a LHP with higher-velocity stuff as a sixth guy in the bullpen. So what about the final two slots? The Best of the Rest Cherington cycled through a metric ton of guys last year when Santana, Lawrence and Mattson all shit the bed. There are a bunch of arms around -- relief guys like Brandan Bidois and Noah Murdock alongside crisis-converted starters like Antwon Kelly and Khristian Curtis. For the record, I am not a fan of Carmen Mlodzinski. I know he provided quality innings as a reliever last year, but I just don’t like the stunt he pulled in May and would like to see him moved. Bachar gives us a similar profile. Of the leftover remnants of the 2026 bullpen debacle, I’d like to see Wilber Dotel converted to a full-time reliever. If developed a bit more, he has the stuff to replace Ramirez as a 7th inning guy and push Ramirez further down the chart. In the future, he has setup guy stuff and just needs to control it. I’m penciling him in to the bullpen as another arm and hoping Murphy can steward him into something special. I’m really missing Kirby Yates in this model as a plug-and-play veteran arm. If we had the capacity to add, I’d like to see a tested guy like John Schneider or Jakob Junis, who reminds one a bit of Ramirez. Just a steady, no frills sort of guy to step in when others need a breather. The Bottom Line We have a bunch of arms right now that sit in the that AAAA category, and one could argue we entered 2026 depending on too many relievers with that profile. I'm not interested in more reclamation projects. Even without Brandon Lowe, we have a returning lineup that scored a ton of runs in 2026. Even with a modest slip to the ~740-750 runs scored range, we'd be safely in the top-third of baseball. We also have a rotation that was innings-limited last year that should come back ready to dominate. Pairing all of that with a bullpen for the ages would be the surest way to reach the promised land of the playoffs. I have zero doubts about this -- everything else equal, the very best investment Cherington could make this offseason would be in at least one, if not two, bullpen arms. I'll move on from this theme having hammered it all week, but will likely return to it before the end of the month. These are the sorts of pieces that should be available now before the lockout begins. #LetsGoBucs

The Pirates’ Bullpen Still Needs Help Over the last couple days, I’ve made the argument that shoring up the bullpen is the most important activity for Ben Cherington this offseason. More important than re-signing Brandon Lowe (which, come on, we all know isn’t happening). More important than signing a lefty starter (which I still think is badly needed). And even more important than signing a legit 3B (there’s always Triolo, I guess). The bullpen needs to be buttoned up so tight, it would take the jaws of life to pry a lead away. I have PTSD after the first half of last year and I just can’t live through that again. Except, you know, right now, helping you remember the misery so you join me on this crusade. It Was Bad, Mmmkay? Travel back with me as we arrive in mid-April 2026, during what should have been a time of great joy in Pittsburgh. The Pirates offense was among the best in baseball, scoring runs hand over fist while the trio of Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller and Braxton Ashcraft all had sub-3.00 ERAs. But then it happened. On April 11, in the 14th game of the season, Dennis Santana has a blown save in a game that the Pirates would end up winning 4-3 against the Cubs in the 11th inning. Well, that’s not so bad… Until the next night, when Justin Lawrence blows another save in a game the Pirates would lose 7-6. It began a two-month odyssey of bullpen failures I never want to experience again: 4/12, BS, Lawrence (Loss) 4/16, BS, Ramirez (Loss) 4/18, BS, Sisk (Loss) 4/25, BS, Mattson (Win) 4/27, BS, Sanatana (Loss) 5/10, BS x 2, Mattson & Ramirez (Loss) 5/15, BS, Soto (Loss) 5/19, BS, Sisk (Loss) 6/3, BS, Soto (Loss) 6/7, BS, Sisk (Loss) 6/13, BS, Montgomery (Win) 6/19, BS, Montgomery (Loss) Never, Ever Again That is 12 blown saves in two months, 10 of them for losses. On June 20, the Pirates were 38-39, a game under .500 having given away 10 contests in which they were winning until a reliever melted down. And this says nothing about the games where we were down a run or two, within striking distance, before a reliever let the other team pile on more runs. Every. Single. Night. The bullpen was like playing Russian Roulette. I shutter thinking about it. Look at the names. Yes, there are guys like Justin Lawrence, Isaac Mattson and Dennis Santana -- pitchers who were demoted or jettisoned. But Mason Montgomery, Yohan Ramirez and Evan Sisk? That’s 3/8ths of your 2027 bullpen. I won’t go back there. I can’t. I physically can’t. The Bottom Line 📌 Yes, the bullpen recovered. Montgomery went on to pitch 24.2 scoreless innings over the final two months of the season as he ascended as our nails closer. Yohan Ramirez had a 1.43 ERA from June 6 through the end of the season. And Even Sisk was… Evan Sisk. We added a poison ivy-addled Luke Weaver and a surprisingly effective Lake Bachar at the trade deadline, with both returning for 2027. There’s good reason to think the bullpen could be a strategic strength in 2027. But listen, I may be a week late with this spooky tale, but we thought the exact. same. thing. heading into 2026. Justin Lawrence gave up 1 ER in 17.2 IP to finish the 2025 season. We thought the bullpen was going to be fine. We mustn’t make the same mistake again. We need at least one more late-inning LHP. We could probably stand to add another middle innings RHP. We need tested talent, not reclamation projects. And that costs money. We would have been in the playoffs if not for the bullpen last year. Never forget. #LetsGoBucs

Forget Brandon Lowe. Fix the Damn Bullpen. In 2026, the Pirates did something that, on the surface, seems damn near impossible. In a single year, the team went from the absolute worst in baseball offensively to the 6th highest run-scoring team. It was an improvement of 184 runs, or a 32% increase in one calendar year. That’s… umm, pretty good, no? I mean, it isn’t a record or anything -- that belongs to the 1903 Giants who scored 300+ runs more in a single season. And in the modern era, the White Sox scored 258 more runs in 1977 than the year before. But if you were making out your wish list for 2026, the idea that the Pirates could dramatically increase runs scored into the top 1/5 of the league would have been unfathomable. And the truth is, they could have scored more -- they were on a trajectory for most of the year to top 800 runs. The August offensive malaise kept that from happening. It was awesome… and yet, they didn’t make the playoffs. It doesn't compute. A Tale of Two Teams But you know who did make the playoffs? Two teams who were just above the Pirates in run scoring for 2025: the Guardians and White Sox. The Guardians were 28th in scoring with 643 runs in 2025 and the White Sox were 27th with 647 runs. They were significantly above the lowly Pirates, but still in the bottom 1/5 of the league. But in 2026, both teams made the playoffs with 85 wins for the Guardians and 84 for the White Sox. Much of that was just playing in the AL Central, where the Guardians were able to win their division with just three more wins than the Pirates achieved. It was a softer league overall, but still, they won more than the Pirates. So clearly, both teams must have joined the Pirates in dramatically scoring more runs, right? And yep, there’s the White Sox just ahead of the Pirates with 776 runs scored for 2026 with huge performances by newcomer Munetka Murakami and 3B Miguel Vargas. But the Guardians? They ranked just 24th in runs scored in 2026, only a modest improvement with 678 runs scored. Tell me again why Brandon Lowe is a must-sign… A Cleveland Case Study Admittedly, the Guardians are a bit of an anomaly with just a +11 run differential for the season. Unlike the Pirates who tended to unload on bad teams, the Guardians won many more squeakers throughout the season. But that was a big key to their success. The Guardians relief corps reminds one of the Pirates circa 2013-2015. Cade Smith recorded 41 saves with a 1.95 ERA, supported by Erik Sabrowski (2.61), Colin Holderman (2.73), Hunter Gaddis (2.98) and Tim Herrin (3.02). It was the 6th best bullpen in MLB by ERA. The Guardians didn't even have a particularly good rotation with the exception of rookie Parker Messick who delivered a 2.56 ERA across 186.1 IP, worth 6.3 WAR. And no position player hit more than 20 HR, with just one hitter with a .800+ OPS (Chase DeLauter). On paper, the only really standout component of the 2026 Guardians was its bullpen. They were tied for 4th with the least number of blown saves with 17. They won the games they were leading, even narrowly. And it led them to the playoffs. The Bottom Line 📌 The takeaway here is obvious. It doesn’t matter how many runs you score if your bullpen can’t hold leads. The Pirates' 25 blown saves were actually middle of the pack, with a big recovery over the last 90 games. But the damage was done in May and June. If the Pirates matched the Guardians on blown saves, it would have meant a 90 win season and a trip to the playoffs. This offseason, it might be a good idea to invest what little resources we have in reinforcing the bullpen. The trade deadline was a great start, and we are in a much better place with Weaver and Bachar joining a rejuvenated Montgomery and Ramirez, but there is no question we could add a piece or two. We don’t need to be making offense the priority this offseason lest we want to repeat last year’s heartbreaking outcome. Sure, add a 3B, but follow the Guardians lead and we could be playing meaningful baseball next October. #LetsGoBucs

We Gotta Trade Mitch Keller Lost amongst all the debate about whether to bring Brandon Lowe back on a multi-year deal is the fact that the Pirates don’t have much money to spend this offseason. The anticipated payroll as we currently stand is somewhere in the $102M range, which is just under the $106M spent on payroll in 2026. Can the payroll go up? I suppose it’s possible, but what was spent this past year was already a sizable increase over the payroll in 2025. I don’t think it’s likely that Nutting will approve another $20M+ increase for 2027. And that’s what it would take, at least, to retain Lowe. Yesterday it was announced that a qualifying offer was made to him in the $23M range. I can only assume that the team already knows he will decline that offer amidst a column from Ken Rosenthal predicting Lowe gets 5/$150M on the open market. Seeking Wiggle Room And what if the Pirates did something crazy and figured out how to keep an aging Lowe into his age 37/38 season. What then? As we sit, that would be the only acquisition possible this offseason, leaving the rotation and bullpen as-is and counting on Nick Gonzales to once again be a starter at 3B. Is that really what offseason success looks like? Looking at the team’s current contracts, there are only two that would afford any sort of payroll relief if moved: Mitch Keller who is owed $18.4M in 2027 and $20.4M in 2028, and Bryan Reynolds who is signed for another four seasons at $15.25M per. I would personally be fine with moving both this offseason, but I don’t think the Pirates are prepared to move on from Reynolds. He was signed at a time when the Pirates had truly no one capable of putting up compelling offense. His .789 OPS last season is pretty par for the course over his last five seasons. He also paired that with outstanding defense in LF. While I think they will likely want to move that contract before it runs out, I don’t see it this offseason. That leaves Keller who is coming off his worst season in 2026 just as his salary climbs into pricey-even-for-the-Yankees territory. Moving On From Keller I’ve advocated in this column the need to add a left-handed starter to complement the RH starters that are the core of the team. I see that alongside another left-handed leverage reliever as essential acquisitions this offseason. I just don’t see that as possible without moving Keller. But how would that get done? I see three options: ▫️Offer $$$ -- Keller is owed $38.8M over the next two seasons. The Pirates would need to pay roughly half of that to make him attractive to other teams. And it would take a team that is convinced he can still be effective. That might be possible, but it works against freeing up capital. ▫️Package with Prospects -- Keller could be unloaded if Cherington attached a top-100 prospect like Edward Florentino (ideally him and not another) alongside a top-10 prospect like Jhostynxon Garcia, effectively selling them. I could be convinced if the salary relief went into areas of need. ▫️Package with Skenes -- This isn’t very likely, but Skenes represents another ~$10M in arbitration, and is likely to be moved next season anyway. He’s coming off a down season, but still has peripheral numbers that would make him coveted. Attaching him to Keller would clear out $28M for 2027 and beyond. The Bottom Line 📌 Of these options, I see the spending of prospect capital to free up resources as the most likely path. That would provide ~$20M to spend on 3B, a left-handed SP and/or a reliever, which is a tall order with limited resources. I remain bullish on Si Hwan Roh, the Korean 3B who just got posted and would likely take $8M-$10M AAV to sign. A soft-tossing lefty like Patrick Sandoval in the $5M range still provides another ~$5M for a LH reliever like Steven Okert or Taylor Rogers. At $20M spent, I’d call that a really successful offseason entering the unknown timetable of the 2027 season. And if it took moving Edward Florentino to make it happen? I’m okay with it. #LetsGoBucs

Winning More by Scoring Less in 2027 I’ve learned that there are two types of fans on X: the knowledgeable fans who debate team construction within real-world parameters, and those less knowledgeable fans who are untethered from reality. “Spend more! Nutting sucks!” is rhetoric that doesn’t do much for me. Yes and yes, so what now? It’s just empty analysis. I see advocating for returning Brandon Lowe in similar terms. Okay, how? Where does the money come from for that? We’re already near the $105M budget threshold for 2027. We have no data that suggests anything above that is viable. So what is the best way to approach team construction for 2027 (or whenever there is meaningful baseball again)? I’m so glad you asked. Revisiting Recent Outcomes The mandate after the 2025 season was to massively improve an offense that was dead last in most offensive categories. In 2025, the Pirates scored just 583 runs with 117 HR and a .231/.305/.350 team stat line. That .655 OPS was, you guessed it, last in MLB. Through a combination of acquisitions last offseason and the maturing of talent already in the system, the Pirates far exceeded expectations offensively. In 2026, the Pirates scored 767 runs, an improvement of 184 runs over the previous season. They hit 186 HR, a massive increase of 69, and had a team stat line of .253/.330/.404. That .734 OPS was nearly 80 points improved. It is an incredible one-year improvement, and if I’d told you about it before the season started, you would have assumed a 90+ win season based on it. And yet, we barely cracked .500 with an 82-80 result. What gives? A Big Slide in Run Prevention The other half of team success is run prevention, and the Pirates took nearly as large a step backward last season as the offense took a step forward. In 2025, the Pirates had one of the best pitching squads in baseball. The team was 5th in MLB with 645 runs allowed, with a 3.76 team ERA that was 7th in the sport. The starters and bullpen were fairly balanced in their production. This past season, the pitching took a big step backward. The team fell to 19th in runs allowed with 739, which was 96 runs more than the previous season. The team ERA of 4.14 was 16th in baseball. This massive erosion in effectiveness served to largely offset the gains made offensively. Dialing It In for 2027 If success in baseball is a calories in, calories out sort of exchange between runs scored and runs prevented, how should the Pirates proceed with constructing their 2027 roster? Those who advocate for returning Brandon Lowe to the team are seeking to score as many runs as possible, cost be damned. But we know that isn’t how the Pirates operate. There is no unlimited reservoir of financial resources upon which to draw. The key is to allocate the team’s limited resources to maximize the delta between RS and RA. Much of that is based on already-established team construction. We start with where we are currently and look to augment. With that in mind, I would suggest trading in runs scored in 2027 to return the team to the glory of the 2025 pitching corps. A Phoenix Rising So what changed pitching-wise from 2025 to 2026? Certainly the headline was the bullpen, but the bigger drop-off was with the starting rotation. Starter ERA in 2025 was 3.71 and that fell 50 points to 4.21 in 2026. Certainly Paul Skenes was a big contributor to that, but so too was Mitch Keller who went from a 4.18 to 5.29 ERA. That isn’t to say the bullpen wasn’t a letdown as well. In 2025, Pirates relievers tossed 604 innings and gave up 280 runs, or .46 runs per inning. In 2026, the bullpen provided 658.1 innings and yielded 339 runs or .51 runs per inning. That extra .05+ runs means an extra run every 20 innings thrown, exacerbated by increased usage as the starting rotation was curtailed. My goals for the offseason would be to return to 2025 levels for pitching: ▫️Trade Keller and Add a LH Starter -- I think the starting pitching is going to take a huge step forward next year anyway with Ashcraft, Jones and Chandler. Skenes is also working this offseason to prove himself. Dropping Keller for a 3.75-4.00 ERA left-hander should help us get back to the 3.50-3.70 ERA range for the starting rotation. Increased innings from the maturing group should help a lot as well. ▫️Add a LH Leverage Reliever -- I’m actually pretty confident in a 2027 bullpen led by Montgomery, Weaver and Ramirez. One more LH RP would be ideal to help the relief corps get back to where it was in 2025. I'm not sold on bringing back Soto, but there are a couple guys who could be had. The bullpen was actually okay for much of last season -- it was just those 45 days of chaos. One more stabilizing arm would do wonders. The Bottom Line 📌 My goals for 2027 would be to shoot for a +100 run delta between RS vs. RA. I could see the Pirates trade on its prodigious offense to improve run prevention to get there. Targeting 650 RA and 750 RS would mean investing in pitching this offseason. Letting Lowe walk is balanced by the rising tide of health for Cruz, O’Hearn and Horwitz alongside the maturation of rookies like Griffin, Valdez and Flores. It is reasonable to expect the team to score more with this crew than last year, but it doesn't have to be successful. That +100 run differential should be good for a 90+ win season and a playoff run. For the cost constrained Pirates, that’s a worthy goal for team construction every year. But there is likely no payroll flexibility if Keller remains a member of the team. Trading him is essential, which I will cover with tomorrow's column. #letsgobucs

The Pirates Don’t NEED to Bring Back Brandon Lowe There seems to be a consensus position around here that bringing Brandon Lowe back at likely north of $20M AAV for his mid-30s is some sort of must-do for the Pirates. That it is an essential activity. And of course, I disagree, because staking myself out on unpopular opinions wins me so much respect and admiration around here. I understand the instinct, and the “gee we’re all just fans” of it, but the strategist in me can’t get behind it. Lowe is going to be too expensive for the current state of finances for the Pirates, and he’s aging into the years when players fall off precipitously. Go look at Dale Murphy for a cautionary tale for what can happen at age 32/33 and beyond. Do We Even Need As Much Offensive Production in 2027? The Pirates scored 767 runs in 2026 which was good for 6th in MLB. But unfortunately, they also gave up 739 runs, a nearly 100 run slide from the 645 they gave up in 2025. If the Pirates combined last year’s offensive production with their pitching in 2025, that 120+ run differential matches the 94-win Atlanta Braves. Even an 80-100+ run differential gets us to the playoffs. With limited funds, the Pirates should be more focused on recapturing the pitching output from 2025 instead of throwing money at trying to repeat last year’s offensive output by retaining Lowe. Especially because, to quote Moneyball in context for once, we can “replace his production in aggregate” by keeping everyone healthy: ▫️Perhaps the most consequential injury last year was the one to Oneil Cruz who missed 62 games. In the 97 games he did play, he had an .854 OPS with 20 HR and 67 RBI. Had he played the rest of those games, it’s fair to expect another 12 HR and 40 RBI. ▫️Ryan O’Hearn missed games twice last season, with a 14 game absence in May and then a monthlong stint in August and part of September. In total he missed 51 games. He put up a .770 OPS with 19 HR and 76 RBI in 110 games. If he’d played all season, an additional 9 HR and 25 RBI might have been possible. ▫️In his rookie season, Konnor Griffin lost a ton of time. His first injury kept him out 21 games, and his second injury cost 50 games. He had a .728 OPS in the 80 games he did play with 6 HR and 33 RBI. A conservative estimate brings him in another 5 HRs with 25 RBI had he been healthy. ▫️Spencer Horwitz is a unique case as he was putrid upon returning from an injury that sidelined him for 33 games. Through his first 74 games, Horwitz had an .842 OPS that included 10 HR and 33 RBI. Had he continued that production, the Pirates would have gotten 10 more HR and 17 RBI more out of him than he put up. Add up that production and you have an estimated 36 HR and 107 RBI in additional production that was lost to injuries last season, which is a little bit better than what Lowe put up himself. But what about the production of the guys who filled in across those missed games? That included a lot of Jake Mangum, Marcel Ozuna, Jared Triolo, Tyler Callihan and others. To match last year’s production, whoever plays 3B would just need to match the collective production of guys who mostly put up sub-.700 OPS output. The Bottom Line 📌 Obviously, analysis like this makes a lot of assumptions, specifically that the four players who went on the IL would have been just as productive as before/after they went out, and that they would replicate that production in 2027 ITIAS. But I could argue the same thing about retaining Lowe -- he had his second most productive season at age 31 in his walk year. It is perhaps a bigger stretch to expect that he would replicate those numbers than that the four players outlined here would combine to make up his production across 200+ additional games between them. Then there’s the argument that we don’t need to score as many runs as we did in 2026 to be successful the next time we’re playing meaningful baseball. But that’s an argument for tomorrow’s column. #letsgobucs

Bonus Defining Moment Ashcraft wins 14th Game on Aug 30 by @GMBCSuperfan In the most recent series that ran over the last 2+ weeks, me and four other writers unpacked the 15 most defining moments of the 2026 season. And I will own that we missed one. In ideating those 15, the goal was to use a single game or moment in time as an entry point to also tell the story of that player’s season. So Skenes gets opening day, and O’Hearn gets his injury, and the point was to “touch ‘em all.” Except we left out one of the most consequential performances of 2026: the sophomore season of Braxton Ashcraft. I brought shame on my dojo with his exclusion. My sincere apologies. Part of the reason is that there wasn’t one, clearly defining moment for him. So I’m nominating his 14th win -- in his next to last start before being shut down. I Kind Of Predicted This Before the season began, one of the trends on X was to stake oneself out with a prediction on the final W-L record and superlatives. I predicted Ashcraft would win 16 games in just 23 starts, a recognition that he would need to be shut down at some point. Ashcraft was coming off a season in 2025 that saw him log more innings than at any point in his career -- 118 IP comprised of 48.1 at AAA and 69.2 innings for the Pirates. That came after just 73.0 innings in 2024 and 52.2 innings in 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery in 2021 that kept him out of baseball in 2022. His 2025 season was a revelation. He started in the bullpen and ended in the rotation, and put up a 2.71 ERA with a 2.78 FIP. In his final starts of that season, he looked like he could be a dominant part of the starting rotation in 2026. He was definitely my pick for a breakout season, and that came true. He might not have won 16 games as I floated, but he damn well could have had he not had a lull in the middle of the season. Oh, What Could Have Been There’s another column coming at some point on a theme in 2026 of Bucco players going on extended streaks of poor performance. While that’s true of most in a 162-game season, the highs and lows feel particularly pronounced for the 2026 Pirates, and Ashcraft is no exception. At a time when the Pirates bullpen was imploding throughout May, Ashcraft was his most dominant: 5-1 record with a 1.99 ERA across 40.2 IP with just 5 BB and 42 K. It was a performance that was oft-quoted at the time as proof of his arrival. But then came the troubles. In June and July, his ERA ballooned to 6.04 across 9 starts. He still won 5 of those games, but he started to have some real clunkers. He wasn’t getting good movement on his curveball, slider and sinker, and hitters were teeing off. But then he recovered in August with a 2.13 ERA in 6 starts. Through the ups and downs, he continued to rack up wins including his 14th on August 30 against the Cardinals. It easily led the team in a year where Paul Skenes did not look like the ace he had been the previous two seasons. What We Learned in 2026 Ashcraft was shut down in September as he put up 165.1 inning, the most of his career at any level. One expects the limitations to be off for 2027 as he ascends with the others as 180-200 inning guys. He joins with Skenes and Jones to form a potentially dominant top of the rotation, with Chandler sitting just slightly one tier down from the other three but with the potential to join them. It’s a young and extremely talented starting four that could very well be the best in baseball. Ashcraft doesn’t need the velocity of Jones to be successful, but he lives or dies by the movement on his spin pitches. When that abandoned him in the middle of the season, it wasn’t pretty. It was good to see him recover in August, and there is no reason to think he won’t return to his dominant ways in 2027. Or, you know, whenever baseball recommences. Just another reminder of what we’ll be missing as this lockout gets set to begin a month from now. #letsgobucs

The 15 Most Defining Moments of the Pirates’ 2026 Season A Look Back by @GMBCSuperfan There it is, folks. The series is over and complete: the fifteen most defining moments of the 2026 season, unpacked by a team of your faithful X-based writers and armchair analysts. We hope you enjoyed it as much as we enjoyed putting it together! In case you may have missed one: 1. Skenes' Opening Day Let Down on March 26 by @MattGajtka As an omen of what was to come, Skenes goes less than an inning. It was our first bullpen game of the season! We had to start at the beginning, and this truly was. nitter.gq/the_earlyshift/status/… 2. Griffin Debuts on April 3 by @GMBCSuperfan After signing the largest contract in Pirates history, our boy makes his first appearance. nitter.gq/the_earlyshift/status/… 3. O’Hearn Gets Injured on May 16 by @BehindTheBucs The first major injury of the season sees O’Hearn go out with a right quad strain. If only we knew what was to come. nitter.gq/the_earlyshift/status/… 4. Reynolds walk-off HR vs. Twins on May 29 by @MDFitness1975 Who can forget the bucket of Double Bubble on his head? Reynolds’ red-hot May & June marked a resurgence for him both offensively and defensively in 2026. nitter.gq/the_earlyshift/status/… 5. Mlodzinski Goes on the Restricted List on May 31 by @BehindTheBucs Unhappy with his demotion, Mlodzinski goes into hiding, the team handles it poorly, and the local media goes apeshit. A high water mark for chaos. nitter.gq/the_earlyshift/status/… 6. Hank Grand Slam, Bullpen Melt-Down on June 3 by @MDFitness1975 No single game better exemplifies the challenge we had with our bullpen, giving up 6 runs to lose it after a Hank Dave Grand Slam. nitter.gq/the_earlyshift/status/… 7. Cruz Injures Hand on June 8 by @MattGajtka In a season of injuries, perhaps none was as negatively impactful as this one, interrupting what may have been destined to be his breakout year. nitter.gq/the_earlyshift/status/… 8. Callihan’s Big Game on June 10 by @burghbulletin He will likely serve as a footnote on the 2026 season, but Tyler Callihan will always have this one magical game to remember. nitter.gq/the_earlyshift/status/… 9. Horwitz Goes Out with a Hammy on June 25 by @GMBCSuperfan With a 2026 that was shaping up to be a true breakout before this injury, Horwitz’s miserable .400 OPS for the last two months of the season was a heartbreaker. nitter.gq/the_earlyshift/status/… 10. Jones Throws Six Perfect Innings on July 8 by @BehindTheBucs Jared Jones had a bit of an up-and-down year, but this outing before he was pulled for pitch count was just a sign of things to come as he dominated in September. nitter.gq/the_earlyshift/status/… 11. Valdez Grand Slam, 6-RBIs vs. Brewers on July 11 by @GMBCSuperfan Valdez made a big impression in 2026, culminating with his two home runs in this first game of a doubleheader with the Brewers just before the ASB. nitter.gq/the_earlyshift/status/… 12. Acquisitions Made at the Deadline on August 3 by @burghbulletin Cherington addressed the bullpen and delivered with Weaver, Bachar and Yates, even as most of the improvement actually came mostly from within. nitter.gq/the_earlyshift/status/… 13. Lowe Hits a Walk-off HR vs. Tigers on August 19 by @GMBCSuperfan There are so many moments featuring Lowe, but this one carries perhaps the most emotional weight in a month where the team was on a slide. nitter.gq/the_earlyshift/status/… 14. Flores Go-Ahead HR vs. Royals on Sept 20 @burghbulletin Flores was an important part of the late-season surge, and this game really embodies what he did so well for us. Who better than our resident catcher-writer to break this down. nitter.gq/the_earlyshift/status/… 15. Pirates End with a Winning Record on Sept 27 by @MattGajtka Breaking the streak was huge and kept us turned in until the bitter end, and we get a first-hand account from a guy who was there that weekend. nitter.gq/the_earlyshift/status/… A huge thank you to @MattGajtka, @MDFitness1975, @BehinTheBucs and @burghbulletin for their contributions to this little experiment. It was such a fun way to get to know each of them and their points-of-view better. I hope we can continue to collaborate on the road to Buctobers still-to-come. And a sincere thank you to everyone who liked, shared and commented. These moments may have defined the season for fans, but interacting with all of you is what defined the season for me. I can remember each of these moments because we experienced them together on here. The highs and lows -- all of it was made better because of you. This community is really special, and it welcomed me this season in a really generous way. I look forward to so many more defining moments still to come. Tomorrow, we'll get back to normal with a deep dive into one of the missing narratives this series left out: the incredible season of Braxton Ashcraft. #LetsGoBucs

Defining Moment #15 Pirates End with a Winning Record on September 27 by @MattGajtka Back when I was a kid, breaking .500 meant something, man. My first season following the Pirates was 1998, so anytime the team even poked its head above the break-even mark, it was cause for celebration in my little world. I can vividly recall attending the game in mid-June 2005 when the Bucs beat Tampa Bay 18-2 to reach 30-30, the latest into the season they’d been at .500 since I welcomed myself into the Pirates fan fraternity. Think about that. Sixty games in was the latest I’d seen the Pirates boast a non-losing record. They would not match that ‘feat’ again until 2011, when — wonder of wonders — they actually carried a winning record into the All-Star break (47-43) and didn’t sink back into the losing depths until early August, when a 10-game slump ruined their postseason outlook in Clint Hurdle’s first season in charge. That year’s 90-loss result made it 19 straight years without a winning record for one of Major League Baseball’s legacy franchises. As you probably know, they would improbably made it 20 in a row in ’12, collapsing from 16 games above .500 on the eighth day of freaking August to comfortably slide home at 79-83. To clarify, that concluded a tidy 16-36 homestretch for our Buccos. How? Why? At that point, this monstrous thing really did feel like a curse. Of course, the 2013 Pirates would reach 70 wins by that fateful Aug. 8 (I was there for that one, too!) and leap over that 82-win hurdle a month and a day later in Texas. I’m not at all joking when I tell you that the rest of September, with the team enduring the stress of a bonafide pennant race, felt like a breeze after that millstone was removed from our collective neck. All of this is to say that, yeah, I felt more than a little something extra when my wife and I grabbed the kids and made the 2 1/2-hour drive down to Detroit for the final game of 2026, with the Pirates one measly win away from clinching just their fifth winning season in the past 34. While the game meant essentially nothing for the Tigers, who fell back into the standings shadows after a couple of years in the postseason sun, there were those aforementioned stakes for the Pirates. Or, at least there were stakes for the fans, as Don Kelly gave Oneil Cruz and Brandon Lowe the day off and pretty clearly wasn’t managing to win at any cost. But despite a dominant Jared Jones being allowed just four innings, Bryan Reynolds getting pulled after one at-bat, Billy Cook receiving four plate trips and Antwon Kelly doing his best to get Detroit back in it, the Pirates still pulled out win No. 82, 4-2. A first-pitch dinger from Konnor Griffin seemed to portend a positive outcome, but we all know there’s stress in guiding the ship into port. When Mason Montgomery’s final pitch was confirmed as a third strike by ABS, my two boys and I leaped up from our left-field bleacher seats and yelled like it clinched the NL Central. (Their mom is a dyed-in-the-wool Tigers backer, but I’ve managed to win the kids to my side. Spare me your jokes about calling Child Protective Services.) Meaning is a cloudy concept. We assign meaning to moments in our lives, but it doesn’t exist in the physical world. Beyond that, all sport is an exhibition. These games and the industry that surrounds them are designed to channel our primal, competitive instincts into something that doesn’t harm our fellow man. For the most part, that effort has been successful, but we can all be guilty of taking it too seriously. But in a time of artificial intelligence and a blurred line between what’s factual and what’s not, I’m left thinking that sport is one thing we’ve got that makes sense to us and did make sense to our ancestors. Sport is real, and even if we’re simply spectating, the feeling it evokes is real — more real than most things we experience in 2026 A.D. You’ll get no apology from me for feeling that swell in my chest when we walked out of Comerica Park on that early-autumn afternoon. There won’t be a World Series in Pittsburgh for the 47th consecutive year, but the Pirates were literally winners after 162 games got sorted out. That result won’t help them materially in 2027, but it does make for lovely kindling as we hunker down for a baseball winter that might be longer than most. ____________________________________________ Matt Gajtka is a lifelong passionate follower of Pittsburgh sports who's always enjoyed the analytical side of the games and athletes we watch. He's worked in sports media in various ways for nearly two decades, including a fulfilling stint as a fully-credentialed reporter covering the Pirates and MLB from 2015-18. While he now lives in Michigan with his wife and two sons, he still considers himself a Bucco 'fan-alyst' while creating (what he hopes is) interesting written and video content. #letsgobucs

Defining Moment #14 Flores Go-Ahead HR vs. the Royals on September 20 by @burghbulletin As the cold, harsh reality that the Pirates wouldn’t be making the postseason in 2026 took over in the August and September months, a perception shift was needed for fans to still make the most out of the baseball that was left. Instead of sinking in the feelings of sadness and despair, it was important to understand that what remained of the 2026 campaign was still undoubtedly important as we look ahead into the future of the franchise. Specifically, what makes a period at the end of the year like this special is finding and affirming answers in some of your younger pieces. Each additional at bat and game these guys get under their belts gets you one step closer to seeing how they truly fit in your organization moving forward. And in some cases, a guy can go out there and answer that question before you even have to. (Meet Rafael Flores Jr.) The Pirates acquired Flores Jr. from the Yankees back at the 2025 trade deadline as part of the David Bednar deal. At the time of the trade, Flores Jr. was the Yankees 8th ranked prospect. Given the circumstance of rather hopelessness surrounding the Pirates catching situation at the time, it felt like a respectable move to infuse the position with some young upside and talent. Listed at 6’3, 233 lbs, Flores gives you a lot to like in terms of frame for being a catcher. His defense is certainly not a strong suit, but the bat is almost certainly what lured Cherington into dealing for him. Across several levels of MiLB in 2025, Flores Jr. finished with a .280 BA, 22 HRs, and an .825 OPS. The season before, he was even better, posting an .875 OPS in 2024 in the minors. As a catcher myself, I hold high value towards catcher’s defense not only in the general areas – receiving, throwing, blocking, now ABS recognition – but also in the way they can work with pitchers and really help keep a staff under control. It’s a big reason why I’m normally not too critical of the Pirates sacrificing Davis’s bat in the lineup for Skenes starts. I do believe the psychological and overall emotional comforting ability a reliable backstop has for a pitcher is priceless, and it’s human nature that some pitchers work better with certain guys. With that being said, I think this is an area where Flores can make up for some of his deficiencies. (The Breakout) With Joey Bart being shipped out of town and Henry Davis once again having a putrid season at the plate, Endy Rodgriguez was the Pirates’ only saving grace at catcher. Endy was great in his time, posting 7 HRs and an .840 OPS in his 135 ABs, but he once again couldn’t escape the injury bug as he had several stints on the IL and finally underwent season-ending labrum surgery in August. As concerns arose over Endy’s ability to even catch moving forward given his fragility, Flores Jr.’s opportunity came. Flores really struggled this season in Triple-A Indianapolis, a sharp contrast to his high production at the plate in the previous 2 years. Flores Jr. had a short stint with the Bucs in June as Henry Davis went on the paternity leave list and was then again recalled on July 8th. He had a rather pedestrian role in his first few weeks, and even suffered a concussion that sidelined him for the remainder of the month. He was activated on August 1st, and with the Pirates desperately needing help against left handed pitchers, Flores saw his role expand. Flores Jr.’s first big day came against the Marlins on August 13th, where he blasted 2 home runs that accounted for 6 of the team’s 13 runs. Maybe even more impressive though, he masterfully worked behind the plate with Braxton Ashcraft to deliver one of the most dominant pitching performances we’ve ever seen from a Pirate. In just 85 pitches, Ashcraft fanned 10 Marlins and threw a complete game, just 1 HR shy of facing the minimum. As I mentioned, Flores’s ability to work with a guy like Ashcraft will be paramount to making up for some of his defensive inefficiencies and ensuring he’s in the lineup as much as possible. Over the next several weeks, Flores continued to flourish. He knocked out 6 homers in August’s final 15 games, including another multi-homer game against the Tigers when he came in as a pinch hitter. Just wow. He continued working especially well with guys like Ashcraft and Jones, which are vital arms in the rotation to have under control. He was making a pretty good case for himself. (Raffy Got the Royals) Well, wouldn’t you know, he continued doing his thing as September rolled around. What was becoming especially evident was not only was the power playing, it was playing in huge moments in games and it was having a huge impact on the win-loss column. Maybe no example is better than what he did on the final homestand of the season. As the Royals came to town for the second to last home series of the year, the Pirates were effectively eliminated from postseason contention that Friday night. That didn’t mean the games didn’t matter though, as the potential of finishing the season over .500 was still rather meaningful to most. Flores Jr. was a key contributor in the Pirates win over the Royals in the second game of the series on Saturday, going 2 for 3 with a double and a walk. Up two games to none, the Pirates had a grand opportunity for a sweep and to get their 79th win on Sunday. Down 3-2 in the bottom of the 8th, the Pirates were facing the real possibility of another sweep slipping through their fingers. That was, until RFJ happened. Royals reliever Nate Pearson hung a 2-1 slider over the middle-third and Flores Jr. made him pay, sending a 426 ft. shot out into the left field seats at PNC Park. The Pirates would hold on and break out the brooms, as the young Flores delivered in yet another huge moment for his team down the stretch. (Final Thoughts) Finishing the season with an .858 OPS and 11 HRs over just 148 ABs, Rafael Flores Jr. has put himself in pole position to be the Pirates guy behind the plate in 2027. It’s possible that upon recovery Endy Rodriguez finds some time again back there, but it’s hard to envision a plan that doesn’t have Flores at the forefront of the position. Flores is the last part of the really encouraging trend I brought up in one of the previous columns, where we saw guys from the minor leagues not just come up and make an impact, but really take full advantage of the opportunities given to them and were catalysts for the team as a whole. It really feels like we have our starting catcher for the foreseeable future. _____________________________________________ The Burgh Bulletin is a young, up and coming Pittsburgh sports fan who enjoys covering the Pirates as well as the other PGH teams and Penn State, in a variety of ways through writing, engagement, and media. Though the pain and suffering is real, there is no greater joy of his than getting to watch his Buccos’ annual (maybe not now) 162 game marathon over the spring and summer months, longing to see that extend into the fall. He hopes you’ll enjoy his work over the next few weeks of this series! #LetsGoBucs

Defining Moment #13 Lowe Hits a Walk-Off HR vs. Tigers on August 19 by @GMBCSuperfan If you get a bunch of Pirates fans in a room, they are likely to disagree about a bunch of stuff. Strange how a lifetime of losing creates a lot of disagreement about who is to blame or how best to right the perceived wrongs. But one thing that is near-universally felt and celebrated -- Brandon Lowe’s 2026 season was pure joy. Similarly, even the most anti-Cherington person will grudgingly acquiesce that the Brandon Lowe trade was his best in the GM seat. That it is even called “the Brandon Lowe” trade, and not the Mason Montgomery trade, named for our new closer who was lights out down the stretch, is proof of his impact this past season. There are a bunch of amazing Lowe moments over the course of the season, and his walk-off HR against the Tigers in August was only one of several big, game-altering efforts in a season that saw him hit 35 HR and knock in 96 runs. But given that the Pirates were on such a miserable slide throughout August, it was perhaps the most emotionally evocative of his late-game heroics. Getting to Know Bam-Bam When the trade for Brandon Lowe was announced, I remember thinking it was a smart move. Initially I spent perhaps equal time contemplating the departure of Mike Burrows and what that would do to the starting rotation. Lowe was a great hitter, but he was often injured, and was billed as fairly poor defensively. He was also likely a one-and-done guy who I just hoped would shine in his walk year. Montgomery and Mangum seemed promising if untested. Boy, were my first instincts off. Not only was Lowe an extraordinary left-handed power bat who instantly improved the lineup, but his defense was actually outstanding. He batted second most of the season and was the Lefty McThump we’ve been seeking for years. Lowe put up a 5.8 WAR for 2026, exceeding his best season (a 4.6 WAR in 2021) when he hit 39 HR. In 2026, Lowe played in a career high 150 games and was a monster at PNC Park with 20 HR and an .848 OPS. The short porch in right field was made for him. He won the hearts of Pirates fans and was an instant crowd favorite. The Turn-Around That Began in August Lowe helped to power the Pirates to a winning record at the break, but the club was not good to start the second half. Going into the ASB with a 50-47 record, the team proceeded to go 8-17 and found themselves six games under .500 by mid-August. One big reason was the utter collapse of the bats. Valdez had turned off like a light switch after carrying the team for much of June and early July. Heading into the August 17-19 series with the Tigers, Reynolds was sporting a .594 OPS in the second half, and Horwitz had come back ice cold. With Cruz, Griffin and O’Hearn still out with injuries, the team was hurting something fierce. Lowe wasn’t faring much better, with a .643 OPS in August, but he’d at least still been hitting home runs -- pretty much the only power bat still producing. He’d hit a three-run HR against the Red Sox the series before that powered the Pirates to an 8-4 win. In the final game of the match-up with the Tigers, the Pirates were down 3-2 in the 9th. The inning began with a Mangum strikeout before Flores came to the plate, having pinch-hit for Davis in the 6th and narrowed the Tigers’ lead with a solo HR. Surely lightning couldn’t strike twice. But it did. And after an out by Horwitz, Lowe came to the plate with the game tied and seemingly headed for extra innings. Or, you know, Bam-Bam could just hit a walk-off HR to win it. It was euphoric, for those of us who hung around until the final inning. The team's malaise had soured what was shaping into a special season, and it had been awhile since that elation had been present in any Pirates game. It suggested that there might still be some hope to be found. The Bottom Line 📌 Ah, but hope is fleeting. The next night, the Pirates lost the first of three games to the Dodgers and by the end were once again six games under .500. So maybe Lowe’s game-winning, walk-off home run didn’t really matter after all. Maybe it was just a blip in an otherwise fruitless pursuit of relevance for the hapless Pirates. Or maybe, just maybe, it was the delayed spark that lit the fuse. The Buccos finished the year 18-11 after that Dodgers series, and though they didn’t make the playoffs, they did end with a winning record. And without a doubt, a huge reason for that was Lowe. In a season filled with moments that could have broken this team, Lowe delivered one that helped put it back together. I know there is a strong sentiment that he be brought back, and though it doesn't fit the payroll for 2027, it's hard to argue with it conceptually. He was so much more than expected, and set a high bar for the future. Long live Bam-Bam. ____________________________________________ GMBCSuperfan is the founder of The Early Shift, a daily Pirates column published exclusively on X. During normal working hours, he serves as a social innovation consultant, trying to make the world a better place for the average Joe. But very early each morning, he transforms into a Pirates obsessive charged with publishing 700 words to appease the masses. Or, you know, the 15 people who read the column everyday. #letsgobucs