Former Senior Analyst / S. Consultant at Fidelity UK @FrontierIntell “The key is not to predict the future but prepare for it” #Valueinvesting #Emergingmarkets
London, UK
Joined February 2015
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Tolga Gurol retweeted
It took one really bad day for Wall Street to call it a bottom.
At this point Wall Street is AI. Incapable of an original thought.
Tolga Gurol retweeted
SoftBank’s “Dangerous Bet” on AI Just Showed Up
Bonds posted a record drop. Shares fell 11%
No one saw this coming… except… everyone who warned years ago. (See 2024 post below)
“Debt maturing in 2032 of the Japanese technology giant, whose nearly $65 billion investment in OpenAI made it an Asian AI bellwether, fell 1.5 cents on Friday, a record drop, according to Bloomberg-compiled data.
The notes were among the biggest losers in Asia with SoftBank shares falling 11%, following a blowout in credit default swaps tied to some US companies behind the AI boom..”
Remember in 2020 when this was described as "a dangerous bet"? Keep an eye out.
"SoftBank is the “Nasdaq whale” that has bought billions of dollars’ worth of US equity derivatives in a series of trades that stoked the fevered rally in big tech stocks before a sharp pullback on Thursday and Friday, according to people familiar with the matter..."
SoftBank unmasked as ‘Nasdaq whale’ that stoked tech rally ft.com/content/75587aa6-1f1f… via @ft
Tolga Gurol retweeted
Tech Stocks in Bear Market Territory:
1. SanDisk, $SNDK: -66%
2. Arm Holdings, $ARM: -64%
3. Coinbase, $COIN: -63%
4. Nebius, $NBIS: -62%
5. Seagate, $STX: -60%
6. Marvell Technology, $MRVL: -59%
7. ServiceNow, $NOW: -57%
8. Oracle, $ORCL: -56%
9. AppLovin, $APP: -54%
10. Circle, $CRCL: -54%
11. Super Micro Computer, $SMCI: -51%
12. Micron, $MU: -48%
13. Dell, $DELL: -47%
14. SpaceX, $SPCX: -47%
15. Qualcomm, $QCOM: -43%
16. Broadcom, $AVGO: -41%
17. AMD, $AMD: -39%
18. Robinhood, $HOOD: -38%
19. Alphabet, $GOOGL: -32%
20. Tesla, $TSLA: -32%
21. Palantir, $PLTR: -28%
22. TSMC, $TSM: -28%
23. Meta, $META: -26%
24. CrowdStrike, $CRWD: -26%
25. Nvidia, $NVDA: -25%
The S&P 500 has now erased -$4 trillion in market cap since October 6th.
Tolga Gurol retweeted
Speaking of the dot com bust… We all know the caveat that price analogs are silly and for entertainment purposes only. Yet, the analog between the AI melt-up since April 2025 and the dot com bubble from October 1998 until March 2000 keeps rhyming with uncanny precision. It’s bound to break at some point, but for now both the time dimension and the price magnitude have been identical, just in time for the negative headlines to start around neocloud credit spreads and capex plans.
Tolga Gurol retweeted
Nvidia is now 8% of the S&P 500, double what Cisco was at the top of the dot com bubble, and it's making the EXACT same mistake.
Cisco lent money to the telecoms buying its gear in 2000 because they couldn't pay for it any other way, and when those telecoms went bust, Cisco lost 89% and the S&P 500 lost half its value.
Nvidia is doing the same thing today, guaranteeing its customers' leases and buying stakes in the very companies that buy its chips. The more it sells, the more it's on the hook when those customers can't pay.
THIS IS THE BIGGEST MISALLOCATION OF CAPITAL IN HISTORY
WHY AM I SHORT NVIDIA ???!!!
Nvidia most important stock in the world, and I think its gonna drag the whole market down with it.
Nvidia's buyers are spending far more than they earn, so Nvidia has started bankrolling them itself, and anyone holding an S&P 500 index fund is sitting right on top of that loop.
Jensen Huang went on TV 3 times in a week to tell you his GPUs last 8 years and that the neoclouds borrowing to buy them are a great investment.
When the guy selling the chips starts vouching for the people who can't afford them, it's time to look for the exit.
CoreWeave's own lenders wanted 9% in April and wanted 15.6% in October (probably even more as of now), and the stock is down over 70% from its high, so I'll take their word over his.
Cisco ran the same play in 2000, when it was 4% of the S&P 500, and it went on to lose 89% while the index lost half its value. Nvidia is 8% of the index, and its 5 biggest customers are another 20%.
The day after the midterms the Nasdaq jumped 2% and Nvidia fell 1.9%. Today it’s diving more and everything is following.
When the most important stock in the market sits out a rally like that, you better pay attention.
I'm short, the stock is below its 200-day moving average, and a close under $200 is where I press it.
I've put the whole case into a report, including when I expect this to show up in Nvidia's numbers and the order I think the rest of the market's leaders roll over in.
Read it here:
Tolga Gurol retweeted
Everything I say in this thread is subject to innumerable risks and uncertainties. With that said, let’s keep this simple.
The US stock market is in a historic valuation bubble driven by AI hype, circular financing deals, and extreme brokerage account leverage.👇🧵
Tolga Gurol retweeted
Dot com bubble fractal overlaid on the current S&P 500 chart.
This looks scarily similar.
Tolga Gurol retweeted
Breaking: Michael Burry says Anthropic's IPO filing shows the whole AI boom is "catastrophically vulnerable"
Below are his reasonings:
1. Anthropic owes $537B for computer power, and pending deals could push it to $800B
2. Anthropic brings in about $65B a year, so it owes about 12x what it makes
3. Half of $537B goes to $AMZN, $GOOGL and $MSFT
4. Anthropic's sales growth slowed from 144% last quarter to 46% this quarter, while its compute costs jumped 78%
Burry says this setup works while AI keeps growing, but one slowdown could hit cause a collapse
Tolga Gurol retweeted
U.S. INFLATION SURGES TO 3.7%, BEATING EXPECTATIONS
September CPI rose 0.6% MoM, matching forecasts, while annual inflation hit 3.7% vs. 3.6% expected.
Core CPI climbed 0.3% vs. 0.2% expected, with annual core inflation reaching 2.6% vs. 2.5% forecast.
Gasoline prices surged 9.1%, energy jumped 5.2%, and real earnings fell 0.5%, highlighting renewed pressure on consumers.
Tolga Gurol retweeted
How passive investing could turn an oil shock into a financial avalanche.
substack.com/@tolgagurol1/no…
Tolga Gurol retweeted
The stock market is quite obviously in its first stage of grief, denial.
Per 2000 and 2008, this stage lasts 6-9 months.
Tolga Gurol retweeted
I don't have a specific dog in this fight because bond yields are finally adequate (despite inflation) and in stocks, we'd be fine both with a continued bubble or an abrupt collapse (see my comments since Feb for more)
The "good" news - rates peaked on October 15, 1987 😬
Tolga Gurol retweeted
After seeing another robust GenAI led durable goods order number, I can only again think that we have a US economy that is mainly dependent on this CapEx orgy and upper income consumers that are highly reliant on a stock market that is hugely hooked on GenAI and this CapEx spend.
Tolga Gurol retweeted
Notable
We've never in almost 100 years seen breadth this bad.
The S&P $SPY is knocking on new highs but there are (many) more stocks at lows than highs.
The percentage of stocks in long-term uptrends is plunging.
The only remotely similar setups were January 1973 and November 1999.
Tolga Gurol retweeted
We're pleased to announce that we will be providing $1 trillion - yes $1 trillion in financing - to enable people to buy rather expensive chocolate chip cookies that we'll be baking in our kitchen.
I believe this is the largest circular chip financing deal ever announced.
If this $500 billion in Nvidia deal goes through, it may be the largest private-market financing on record. It would match the expected total bond sales from tech-related firms for the entirety of 2026. The race for capital is still accelerating. ft.com/content/98a8fd17-15b6…
Tolga Gurol retweeted
A few months back I flipped my $BABA stock into a large $JD position. I will not flip any of that back to #Alibaba, as issuing shares is now its new paradigm. It would have to fall by half from here for me to look at if again.
Alibaba Group announced on Sunday that it is raising 80 billion Hong Kong dollars ($10.2 billion) through a new share placement to investors outside the U.S., with all the proceeds to be invested in the company's full-stack AI capabilities.
s.nikkei.com/4cWD8N3
Tolga Gurol retweeted
Türkiye says 97% of its strays have been collected.
Detailed figures were requested through CİMER - they were not provided.
What happened after the dogs were collected?
Read ⬇️
dogdeskanimalaction.co.uk/p/…
