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The Rosales Agency | Winning Solutions, Lasting Impact | Political/Polling/Digital | MBA @drexeluniv | @OfficialAlamo Descendant | fmr college ⚾️ | ⚽️ fan

United States
Joined November 2009
Photo by Tim Rosales (@TimRosales)Photo by Tim Rosales (@TimRosales)Photo by Tim Rosales (@TimRosales)Photo by Tim Rosales (@TimRosales)Photo by Tim Rosales (@TimRosales)Photo by Tim Rosales (@TimRosales)Photo by Tim Rosales (@TimRosales)Photo by Tim Rosales (@TimRosales)
"The Trump shackles": Republican strategist @TimRosales suggests Tuesday's election results may give Republican officials room to break from their party's leader. 📺Inside California Politics with @NikkiLaurenzo
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Texas vs. Florida, midterm vs. presidential turnout by county partisanship.
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It should be noted that Gavin Newsom, while running for governor in 2018, specifically pledged to honor voters' decision to keep the death penalty. Almost immediately after inauguration he declared a moratorium on executions and now is granting clemency to death row inmates.
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548 death sentences. One man is wiping them out on his way out the door. The monster who strangled 12-year-old Polly Klaas. The man who tortured 8-year-old Gabriel Fernandez to death. Juries said death. Newsom said never mind. That’s not justice. It’s a betrayal of every victim.
#BREAKING: Governor Newsom announced he will commute the death sentences of all California inmates awaiting execution and reduce their punishments to life without parole. ktla.com/news/california/new…
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The Latino vote will be the biggest story line for the next decade
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I will always be a proud Nevadan and grateful for this experience and opportunity. Thank you! ⬇️ #NV04
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Lest one argue @realDonaldTrump shouldn't appoint federal judges before the new Congress is sworn in, a history lesson: In 1980, after Jimmy Carter was defeated AND the Senate shifted Democrat to Republican, he made numerous appellate court appointments, including Steven Breyer.
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🚨 Republican Sen. Ashley Moody garnered another two years in office from Florida voters after beating back a challenge by progressive firebrand and Democratic state legislator Angie Nixon. politico.com/storyline/live/…
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MAKE PAPER BALLOTS GREAT AND MANDATORY AGAIN
NEW YORK. Despite major glitches with the tabulator machines (the paper ballots are too think to feed in) in Westchester County, Congressman Mike Lawler (R) says “I have confidence that every vote will be counted”…
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Is the California governor's race locked up? Will we see a MAGA back pedal? What's the future of the California Democratic party? With @stevenmaviglio @TimRosales
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I am heartbroken by the shooting near Illinois Wesleyan University’s campus last night. Kristen and I are praying for the victims, their loved ones, and their families during this unimaginably difficult time. I’m grateful to the first responders and law enforcement officers who responded quickly to help those in need and secure the area. wglt.org/local-news/2026-11-…
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The @WashingtonPost and @NYTimes both included disclaimers with their latest polls noting that Democrats were responding at much higher rates than Republicans. I joined @OutFrontCNN’s roundtable with @Lis_Smith and @PaulRieckhoff to discuss what could happen on and after Election Day 2026. 🔗 youtu.be/IJI_xOnPmIc
Veteran pollster Frank Luntz cautions talk of a blue wave before the election: “I’d say be careful… I don’t believe the polling actually represents Trump voters, because Trump voters don’t like talking to the pollsters.”
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Meanwhile the model reads the latest drop in Texas as good for Republicans
How Republicans can close the early voting gap and the expected electorate can get more Democratic: an explainer from North Carolina.
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We should know by around 10 a.m. Tuesday morning if Rs will do well on Election Day or not. Ds tend to do better later in the day, so you are looking for big R numbers early. If Rs can close the raw voter gap to around 20K, @JoeLombardoNV, @AndyMatthewsNV and maybe one or two other statewide candidates have realistic shots at victory. If the raw voter gap is 5K-10K, they should feel optimistic. NP voters are the wildcard. Remember, Lombardo may only need 47% to win.
Short version: Rs have a plausible path to overcoming D's current edge in voter turnout with Election Day voting. That's due to 1) Rs closing the voter registration gap compared to 2022 2) comparatively low turnout in Clark 3) Rs dominating Election Day in 2022 4) Rs having more high-propensity voters remaining (Clark County data is from @grok. Trust AI as you will.) Remember, Clark is the weak spot for Rs. If they have more 4/4 voters left in Clark, that number is likely much greater in the rest of the state.
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California Politics 360 interviews this Sunday: •Senator Bernie Sanders on billionaire tax •Xavier Becerra on his run for governor •Political panel with @TimRosales @stevenmaviglio + special report on how local elections officials are using extra state taxpayer money
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This is clear evidence of vote method shifting. 4 of 4 primary voters are essentially guaranteed to vote in this midterm. Turnout gaps will show up among low-propensity voters, not here. Here's how the 2020-22 post-pandemic comparison looks.
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News 3 speaks with the candidates of Nevada Congressional District 4 ahead of election day.
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With Election Day next Tuesday, voters in Nevada’s 4th Congressional District are weighing a Democratic incumbent against a Republican challenger as concerns about affordability, border security and day-to-day representation dominate the race. bit.ly/4zV5u3j
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