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Investor | Early $IREN & Ripple | also hold $GOOGL $MSFT and more

New York, USA
Joined March 2020
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This is NOT bubble territory.
S&P 500 P/E-to-profitability ratio is at its lowest level in almost 14 years 🚨
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Tree retweeted
The market is punishing neoclouds after the Magnificent Seven earnings, even though all the CEOs are telling us they don’t have enough compute capacity to meet demand. Google literally told us yesterday that it began using third-party compute capacity at the end of Q3 and plans to increase usage in Q4, even though that will put pressure on its margins. Think about that for a second. This multi-trillion-dollar company is willing to accept lower margins to secure more compute so it can serve more customers and generate more revenue. They see it as a necessity. For the companies that can supply that capacity on time, I see this as very bullish.
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I get why you want to punish the hyperscalers for their CapEx, but why punish the suppliers at the same time? That doesn’t make sense to me
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It means companies like $IREN stand to take over the world 😈
If Data Center Alley is going dark, what does that mean for the rest of America
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$IREN: Built for a Tougher Financing Market One of the more interesting takeaways from @danroberts0101's latest interview was his commentary around customer prepayments and how $IREN could lean on them more heavily in a tougher financing environment. He seems as confident as ever despite the current macro / market backdrop, and I think there is a good reason for that. $IREN is in an ideal position to push for customers to fund a larger share of the capex bill because the company is no longer pre-selling capacity years in advance. In contrast, a company like $CRWV, with its ~$104B backlog, negotiated and signed many of those contracts months ago under the assumption that financing would remain readily available. That led $CRWV to actually de-prioritize prepayments at the start of 2026, according to management at the time, leaving the company with a much larger capex bill that now has to be financed primarily through debt and other external capital. For anyone paying attention, $IREN has proven this year through its contracting strategy that it is by far one of the most nimble and flexible neoclouds in the sector. Know what you own!
IREN’s @danroberts0101 speaks to @ArjunKharpal about AI financing and demand on CNBC. Watch the full interview.
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Nvidia: We're guiding to 70% revenue growth next year. There's incredible AI demand for 100% growth, but we can't supply it. Google: Everyone wishes they had DOUBLE the compute capacity right now. There's so much AI demand. Bloomberg/FT: There's a $500 million market-cap Korean neocloud no one has ever heard of and it traded poorly on its IPO first day. AI IS DEAD. EVERYONE FREAK OUT AND PANIC!
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"There's more customer demand than we can build for. 2026 is largely sold out, recent 3-year contracts are at more than double the prior year's pricing, and demand for 2027 covers it several times over... Conversations on 2028 capacity are already underway." — Dan With earnings likely around Nov 5, flexing this level of pricing power sends a massive signal about where 2027 capacity rates are headed. Furthermore, the fact that 2028 discussions are already taking place proves just how severe the power constraints really are. Bullish on $IREN.
This echoes what Nebius and CoreWeave have been saying too "With GPU paybacks of around two years on our recent 3-year contracts" "There's more customer demand than we can build for." "2026 is largely sold out, recent 3-year contracts are at more than double the prior year's pricing"
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The whole Nscale situation is wild when you break down the facts: Current Energized Capacity: Barely ~30–40 MW operational (their flagship Glomfjord site in Norway is actually doing only 6.4 MW today). IPO Valuation Target: Aiming for an insane $35B valuation. Anthropic Deal: A massive $45B backlog on paper (West Virginia), but it’s still early-stage construction and years away from delivering. Elite Backers: Backed by heavyweights like Nvidia, Citadel, and Jane Street. Origins: Former Aussie BTC miner (spun out of Arkon Energy). The irony is incredible. If big money and Wall Street are willing to pour tens of billions into an unproven, paper-pipeline Aussie ex-miner, they should be backing $IREN instead. IREN already has hundreds of megawatts energized, operational FTM substations, and proven execution on the ground. Competitor fallout = a bigger moat for $IREN.
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While neocloud investors got absolutely wrecked last week, GPU rental prices skyrocketed. B300 rates are now up >20% over the past month. Know what you own... H/T: @matthew_sigel $IREN $NBIS $CRWV
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Tree retweeted
I think it’s time to call on @danroberts0101 and $IREN board and execs to buy some shares. Doesn’t need to be anything crazy but for the love of god we need a show of faith and belief in how cheap this company is. Time for action. @mikealfred let’s make it happen! Us retail have been catching this falling knife all year. I have added almost weekly. Time to back us up.
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Tree retweeted
Before you give up on $IREN, take a look at what the next two years could bring. Annual AI Cloud revenue: FY26 actual: $129M FY27 base model scenario: ~$3B FY28 base model scenario: ~$9B Roughly +2,230%, then +200%—nearly 70× from a small starting base. My illustrative execution case from my model based on reasonable assumptiond, not company guidance. The scale of this opportunity is why I’m still looking beyond the selloff and bad macro.
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JENSEN: - COREWEAVE'S STRENGTH IS IMPROVING EVERY DAY - NVIDIA DOESN'T NEED TO BACKSTOP THEM - COREWEAVE'S COST OF CAPITAL IS ACTUALLY DECREASING Jensen single handedly helping the semis find some level of recovery right now... $NVDA $CRWV
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After a 15% correction since the start of October, Wall Street finally notices and throws in the towel. Once again, a normal, healthy pullback becomes “the end of the cycle” and proof that the AI bubble is bursting. Yes, back to the upward sloping 150 day EMA. Flush out the weak hands. Same trade as last fall. Same crowd that called for the end of the world in the spring. Same advice: buy healthcare, the cycle is over. Rinse and repeat. Ignore the noise. $SMH
🤖 Made with AI
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Upcoming hyperscaler earnings should provide the next read on capex intentions, and we expect those numbers to reinforce the upward trajectory rather than challenge it. We believe CoreWeave driven fears are way overdone-remind us of the Saas apocalypse fears earlier this year 🎯
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Tree retweeted
$IREN is going bankrupt right now, that is why they just listed 13 jobs today where 11 of the jobs are for directors/project manager, and one for energy market specialist. Focus on the company and the execution. $IREN is not slowing down🔥
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The sense I get from reading big tech Q2 earnings call transcripts is the demand for compute is infinite and the supply is extremely constrained The only company on the planet that can literally print liquid cooled data centers is $IREN
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Today I will be educating you with some construction progress at $IREN sites in Texas. Additionally, I will try to explain why the current strategy is the optimal one, and attempt to clarify some misunderstandings around the company and its trajectory.
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Tree retweeted
$IREN is testing shareholders’ patience. At ~$36, I think it’s also creating an opportunity that deserves a lot more attention. IREN’s equity value is roughly $14.3B against $4B of contracted ARR targeted to be operating by year-end: approximately 3.6×. Nebius trades around 8× its year-end ARR guidance midpoint. Its software platform and other assets deserve recognition, but that remains a substantial gap. At a hypothetical 5× equity/ARR multiple, IREN would be worth $20B—roughly $51 at the latest reported 394M shares. That’s valuation sensitivity, not a guaranteed target. The next catalyst is 2027 contracting. IREN targets cumulative capacity delivery of 300MW IT in 2026, rising to 800MW in 2027. Management has already reported late-stage discussions over a significant portion of that capacity. I expect some 2027 contracts to be announced at November earnings—my expectation, not company guidance. Attractive signings with credible delivery and financing plans could improve both the revenue outlook and the multiple investors will pay. There is tangible execution behind the story: Microsoft has already accepted Horizon 1. Thanks to @FransBakker9812 we know that the other Horizons are right around the corner too. Macro matters as well. IREN is high beta, so war fears, expensive oil and rising yields can hit it disproportionately hard. You can’t invest in high beta without accepting that. The aggressive moves up you are chasing face the same violent downswings. A durable end to the Iran war that restores energy flows could sharply ease energy-driven inflation, lower yields and create room for eventual Fed cuts. I can’t time that turn, and rapid cuts aren’t assured—but markets can reprice well before the Fed acts. Uptime, capex, debt and dilution still matter. If IREN keeps delivering while those macro headwinds ease, I believe patient shareholders could be well rewarded. When the facts still support the thesis, I want to be greedy when others are fearful. Long $IREN.
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$IREN: SemiAnalysis crossed a line… If you recall my post from yesterday, I wasn’t going to keep dragging this topic out. $IREN clearly intends to handle the situation pragmatically and collaboratively instead of turning it into a public fight with @SemiAnalysis_, and I didn’t want to stand in the way of that by pouring gasoline on the fire. However, after hearing what none other than Kent Draper, $IREN's Chief Commercial Officer, had to say yesterday, I don’t think I can stay quiet on it anymore... There are several parts of Semi’s portrayal of $IREN that deserve additional context, because once you hear IREN's side of the story, some of the claims in Semi’s ClusterMAX report start to look very different. Kent went on @McnallieM yesterday for a 1 hour interview and, toward the very end, directly addressed the new ClusterMAX ranking and the accusations surrounding $IREN's Prince George site. I’ve attached his full response below because I think everyone should hear it for themselves. But read this post first, then watch the clip... It hits much harder with the full context and my added commentary. The first issue starts with the ranking methodology itself. ClusterMAX explicitly says it is ranking managed Slurm and Kubernetes clusters. Yet as Kent confirmed, $IREN does not even have a live managed-services environment today. Investors following the company already knew this. Managed services are a capability IREN is only now building out following the @MirantisIT acquisition, which brought in the orchestration layer and enterprise cloud expertise needed to move beyond predominantly bare-metal compute. That immediately raises a pretty obvious question: If ClusterMAX is specifically a ranking of managed clusters, and $IREN does not currently have a managed cluster product available for Semi to test, why is IREN being ranked as "Underperforming" in the first place? The fair classification was always "Unavailable". That may technically sit below Underperforming on the ranking, but the implication is completely different. Unavailable simply tells the reader that there was no qualifying product available to test. Underperforming tells the reader that Semi tested $IREN's managed offering and found it poor. According to Kent, they couldn’t have done that because the product isn’t live yet. This becomes even stranger when Semi goes as far as recommending that $IREN “stop pretending to offer managed clusters and inference endpoints” because of the supposed shortcomings of those services. How exactly do you reach a conclusion on the quality of a managed service that has not launched? If anything, the limited evidence we currently have around $IREN's forthcoming managed-services capabilities points in the opposite direction. Kent specifically said IREN has already signed managed-services clusters with NVIDIA for its own internal R&D workloads. That sits alongside NVIDIA’s broader five-year, $3.4B cloud agreement with $IREN across 60MW of capacity. NVIDIA obviously understands GPU infrastructure better than virtually anyone on the planet, and as Kent pointed out, they conducted extensive diligence around $IREN's ability to deliver before signing a contract of that size for their own workloads. So before $IREN's managed-services platform has even properly launched, one of the first companies willing to underwrite it is NVIDIA itself. Semi somehow found room to tell IREN to stop marketing a service that isn’t live yet, but apparently didn’t find that worth discussing... Then we get to Prince George, which is where most of the really aggressive language in Semi’s write-up comes from. Kent did not deny that Prince George has experienced issues, nor did he try to pretend the site was built from day one like IREN's newer AI infrastructure. He explained that Prince George was originally a Bitcoin mining facility that $IREN has been retrofitting for AI compute, and the company was installing additional power redundancy as part of that process. The important part is WHY the GPUs came online before all of that redundancy was finished. According to Kent, customers wanted access to the compute as quickly as possible. $IREN therefore brought the GPUs online while the redundancy buildout was still progressing, and those customers were fully aware of the setup from the beginning. That is a very different picture from IREN secretly cutting corners, handing customers an inferior product and then getting caught after the fact. It was a known tradeoff... Customers wanted the GPUs immediately, $IREN had the capacity available, and they were willing to accept reduced redundancy during the retrofit in exchange for getting access to scarce compute sooner. And today, the very power redundancy Semi criticized as “missing” is already being commissioned. There is also a pretty funny detail here that I think deserves more attention. The only customer relationship Semi actually names in connection with the Prince George problems is TogetherAI (@togethercompute). Semi tested Together capacity running out of Prince George and says it knows of multiple unhappy Together customers using that infrastructure. Semi also claims to have heard complaints from customers renting directly from $IREN, but none of those customers are identified. Meanwhile, Kent confirmed in the exact same interview that Together recently renewed or expanded its relationship with IREN. In other words, the one company sitting between Semi and the Prince George cluster they use as their clearest example of $IREN's supposed unreliability decided to do more business with IREN. That doesn’t mean an outage never happened or that every downstream Together customer had a flawless experience. It does, however, make the broader portrayal of Prince George as some completely dysfunctional operation rather difficult to square with the commercial behavior of the customer Semi itself links most directly to the site. If the experience was truly as irredeemable as the language in ClusterMAX suggests, why is Together signing up for more? The fiber accusation gets even more interesting... Semi specifically mocked Prince George for supposedly having a single Internet Service Provider (ISP) with no redundancy. Yet, Kent directly contradicted that. $IREN does have redundant fiber at Prince George. What happened over the summer was that wildfires in British Columbia damaged parts of the surrounding fiber network, temporarily reducing the level of redundancy available to the site. Those are two very different things... A site being architected without redundant fiber is an infrastructure decision, while a site having redundant fiber and then temporarily losing portions of that redundancy because wildfires physically damaged external lines is an operational event. Yet if you only read Semi’s version, you would walk away believing $IREN simply built the site with one ISP and called it a day. Prince George also tells you very little about how IREN’s next generation of infrastructure is being built. Kent confirmed that Horizon, the future Childress deployments and Sweetwater will incorporate full power, mechanical and cooling redundancy from day one, including full concurrent maintainability. Semi itself even acknowledges that Childress and Sweetwater look considerably better than Prince George. Which makes the attempt to use a retrofitted Bitcoin mining facility in Northern Canada as some sweeping indictment of where $IREN's cloud platform is heading even more questionable. Reporting genuine outages, reliability problems or customer complaints is completely fair game. I want publications like Semi digging into that stuff. But there is a difference between reporting those problems and taking issues at one transitional retrofit site, assigning an Underperforming rating to a managed service the company doesn’t even offer yet, telling $IREN to stop pretending it offers that service, calling Prince George the “#1 worst site in the industry according to some anonymous users”, and then suggesting NVIDIA’s involvement might help IREN “cut less corners this time around.” That is where, in my opinion, the report crossed from analysis into grandstanding... Especially when a considerable amount of the missing context could have been cleared up with a direct conversation with $IREN. And that brings me back to how IREN itself handled this. I have never shied away from criticizing $IREN's investor relations and communication when I thought they deserved it. I dedicated an entire section of our latest earnings report to the issue and have raised it publicly numerous times over the past year. But I’ve also been equally vocal in recent weeks about the improvement I’ve seen. There has been a meaningful uptick in investor communication, more context coming directly from management, and a much greater effort to shape the company’s own narrative before somebody else shapes it for them. This situation is another example where I genuinely could not have asked for a better response. $IREN didn’t put out some dramatic press release attacking Semi. They also didn’t start throwing accusations around on social media, and they didn’t turn a research report into a corporate feud that would only give the entire story more oxygen. Instead, their Chief Commercial Officer went onto an investor podcast, answered the question directly, explained the facts behind the situation and left it there. No grandstanding, no personal attacks, just context. At the same time, as I mentioned yesterday, IREN appears intent on working more closely with publications like Semi as its managed-services platform actually rolls out, which is exactly the right approach from a corporate perspective. There is zero reason to burn bridges with an influential industry publication when you can instead give them access to the real product once it exists and let the results speak for themselves. As a shareholder, I couldn’t be happier with how $IREN handled this. And massive credit to @McnallieM for hosting another excellent interview and asking Kent the question directly. This entire discussion would have remained one-sided without it. Now everyone has both sides of the story. Watch Kent’s full response below. Cheers! ✌️
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