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スペイン在住|米欧の一次情報と決算データから、相場とお金の流れを構造化|暴落で狼狽しないための投資規律と資産設計|欧州で生きてるただの白い獣

どこかの草原
Joined February 2024
Photo by 羊 (@USStockSheep)Photo by 羊 (@USStockSheep)Photo by 羊 (@USStockSheep)Photo by 羊 (@USStockSheep)Photo by 羊 (@USStockSheep)Photo by 羊 (@USStockSheep)Photo by 羊 (@USStockSheep)Photo by 羊 (@USStockSheep)Photo by 羊 (@USStockSheep)Photo by 羊 (@USStockSheep)
The AI race after the midterms
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SK HYNIX $SKHY Q3’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS 🔹 Revenue: $78.9B (Est. $74.8B) 🟢; +328% YoY 🔹 Oper Profit: $62.8B (Est. $58.5B) 🟢; +632% YoY 🔹 Oper Margin: 80%; +3,300 bps YoY; record high 🔹 QoQ: Revenue +32% / Oper Profit +38% Q4 Guide: 🔹 DRAM Bit Growth: Mid-20% QoQ 🔹 NAND Bit Growth: Mid-single% QoQ incl. Solidigm Q3 Pricing & Volume: 🔹 DRAM ASP: High-20% QoQ; bits ~+10% QoQ 🔹 NAND ASP: Mid-20% QoQ; bits slightly lower QoQ Profitability: 🔹 Gross Margin: 85.7% (Est. 85.2%) 🟢 🔹 EBITDA: $66.1B; 84% margin; +486% YoY 🔹 EPS: $41.07; +205% YoY Financials: 🔹 Cash: $86.3B; +311% YoY 🔹 Interest-Bearing Debt: $11.9B; -34% YoY 🔹 Net Debt-to-Equity: -32%; -2,800 bps YoY 🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $41.3B; +281% YoY 🔹 Total Assets: $295.5B 2027 Market Outlook: 🔹 DRAM Demand Bit Growth: +mid-20% YoY 🔹 NAND Demand Bit Growth: +high-teens% YoY 🔹 2027 CapEx: To rise significantly vs 2026 🔸 Memory demand expected to outpace supply through 2030 Product & Technology: 🔹 HBM4: Expected to surpass HBM3E in HBM shipment and revenue share in Q4 🔹 2027 HBM: Negotiations finalized; profitability gap with conventional DRAM expected to narrow meaningfully 🔹 M15X: Ramp-up accelerating to full capacity by end-2026 🔹 321L NAND: Over 50% of domestic capacity in Q4 Business Highlights: 🔹 LTAs: Signed with 14 key customers incl. major global CSPs; standard 5-year term; over 50% of 2027-2028 capacity secured 🔹 Q3 Dividend: ~₩20,000/share (~$15.08), incl. a ₩10,000 special dividend from realized Kioxia gains 🔹 Share Acquisition: ₩20T (~$15.1B) for the quarter, incl. ~₩10T for executive & employee compensation 🔸 Quarterly revenue topped ₩100T for the first time Note: 🔹 Net Profit: $30.0B; +216% YoY 🔸 Includes a $24.6B non-operating loss: a $17.3B investment-asset loss and an $8.8B FX loss as the won strengthened FX used for USD conversion: $1 = ₩1,326 (mid-market; Oct 27, 2026)
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Nebius $NBIS says its has secured a $3.5 billion financing facility from Citi to help fund GPU purchases and its AI data center buildout, with the facility maturing next year. $CRWV $NVDA
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ポーランドは日本との連帯を表明し、いわゆる「スパイ容疑」でロシアで拘束された北海道新聞の日本人記者今井裕紀氏の即時解放をロシア当局に求めます。 報道の自由は民主主義に不可欠です。 ポーランドは、メディアが自由かつ安全に活動できることを極めて重視しています。 @MofaJapan_jp @MSZ_RP
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その主張は聞き飽きた。日本の「再軍備」などという詭弁は、重要鉱物の供給を政治的武器として正当化するための、見え透いた口実にすぎない。中国政府による不当な輸出規制の弊害は、日本だけに収まるものではない。日本企業の品質と信頼性を高く買い、強固な絆を結んできた米国企業をはじめ、この地域の経済活動全体に冷や水を浴びせる行為だ。かの国では「安定」と「混乱」が、同義語として辞書に載っているのだろうか。
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Pretty crazy Reuters piece on the global selloff. - October 22 marked the 1st time since the COVID crash that long/short, systematic, and multi-strategy hedge funds tracked by Goldman Sachs ALL lost more than 1% in a single day. - Tech-focused hedge funds: down ~10% in October - Asia-focused hedge funds: down ~9% in October There’s separate interviews where Citadel/JP Morgan have been saying retail has been the ones buying the dip in semiconductor, neocloud, and memory stocks. And the stocks bought by most retail were $NBIS, $SNDK, and $TSM. Reuters stated this downturn triggered institutional deleveraging events among hedge funds. Quite the divergence, I do think there’s been a ton of irrational selling now, hedge fund deleveraging seems to be a major contributor.
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*FINLAND SHUTS STATE INTERNET SERVICES OVER PHP FLAWS *NETHERLANDS CYBERSECURITY AGENCY TAKES WEBSITE OFFLINE OVER PHP FLAWS *FRANCE TEMPORARILY TAKES PREFECTURE WEBSITES OFFLINE PENDING PHP FIX: MINISTRY
CRITICAL PHP FLAWS PUT MILLIONS OF WEBSITES ON ALERT PHP developers are preparing emergency patches for two critical vulnerabilities, each rated 9.2/10 in severity. The flaws could allow attackers to execute malicious code remotely without authentication, threatening servers running PHP-powered websites. Cloudflare ($NET) reports early attacks and is deploying temporary protections. The key warning: EU cybersecurity officials urge immediate patching and advise taking vulnerable sites offline if fixes cannot be applied.
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Every day that Germany stays in the Euro, it writes a blank cheque to the high-debt South. The high-debt South - no surprise - cashes that cheque with great enthusiasm. Germany's political center is too "posh" to acknowledge this. But the AfD isn't... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/…
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Today, I had a productive call with Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama. Our conversation built on President Trump’s discussion with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi earlier this week and reflected the strength of the U.S.–Japan partnership. We discussed the desirability of a strong yen that reflects Japan’s strong economic fundamentals, and the importance of staying in close communication on currency markets.
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$IRDM STOCKHOLDERS APPROVE $RKLB ACQUISITION
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ロシアだけがゴールド売り続けています。8月も6トンの売りで年初から56トンの売り。戦争費用の捻出のためでしょうね。
Central Bank of Russia #gold reserves fell by 6 tonnes in August. This means YTD net sales now total 56 tonnes, leaving gold reserves at 2,271 tonnes.
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今日の日銀「7対2」、これまだ序章なんよな... 利上げに反対した2人は、高市政権が選んだリフレ派 →それだけで円は157円台後半 で、来年7月 任期が切れるのは高田委員と田村委員 →よりによって一番のタカ派2人が同時に抜ける 後任を選ぶのは、もちろん政権 →2が4になる →9人中4人、あと1人で過半数 その次は2028年春の総裁人事 為替市場はこの時間割をもう読んでる 今日の円安は「今日の2票」やなくて「来年の4票」に反応してるんやと思う 中央銀行って、選挙やなくて人事で変わるんやで...
日銀の総裁も審議委員も職員も、高市から送り込まれた犬二匹のせいで苦労が多いな 片山さつきも、高市のことアホだと思いながらもなんとか国を維持しようとギリギリの調整してんのか、やっぱ犬になりきるのかどうするんかな
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羊 retweeted
高市総理がよくわからない2人を送り込んだせいで、政策金利を想定より更に上げなきゃいけなくなりました それは国民全体に大きな負担になるわけです。ほんとうに無能
政府が送り込んだ高圧経済派が一応言われた仕事はした。想定通りのノイズ。 >浅田統一郎、佐藤綾野の両審議委員は反対した
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Agree
If Warsh and the Fed really want to establish credibility and independence, they will hold this week and thereby notify the market that Fed Funds Futures don’t control their decisions.
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Diesel here in Germany is at €2.49/liter... That's ~$11 per gallon. Germany is fucked.
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The UK's bond market is collapsing. Today, the yield on a 30Y Bond in the UK hit 5.95%, its highest level since March 1998. Yields in the UK are now 15 TIMES above 2020 levels, with the highest borrowing costs among G7 countries. What is happening? Let us explain. (a thread)
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Chamath @chamath: how does an account with no followers get 110 million views in a day? David Sacks @DavidSacks had an answer, on the same All-In @theallinpod taping. Within 15 minutes of the Anthropic researcher's doomsday resignation post, three policy groups amplified it: ENCODE AI's Nathan Calvin, the AI Policy Network's Peter Wildeford, and the AI Futures Project's Daniel Kokotajlo, who dropped a Rogan episode the same day using the same phrasing. All three groups are funded by Jaan Tallinn, who co-led Anthropic's Series A. The Wall Street Journal published a story on the resignation minutes before the tweets went out, meaning the paper had been briefed under embargo. The researcher had agreed to appear on the show and cancelled the morning of taping. Our breakdown traces the funding chain and what it means for Anthropic's IPO: podcastalpha.substack.com/su… Source: All-In Podcast - youtube.com/watch?v=cvxjqbfL…
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だめだお🥺 原油とまんないお🥺 昼から夜にかけてまた上がったね.....
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The “AI capex is a bubble” and “SaaS is dead” narratives getting shredded this morning. NVDA +8%, SFDC +20%. NVDA: $96B q2 revenue (+106%), ~$60B net income, 75% gross margin. Highest core-business quarterly profit ever. Guided FY28 rev +70% vs Street exp 45% — and that’s a supply-constrained number. SFDC: bookings reaccelerated (fastest in 4 years) and Agentforce is showing up in ARR. Benioff: “the UI is the AI.” They’re putting Salesforce inside Claude. If you can’t beat ’em, join ’em. Still need systems of record. Congrats @JensenHuang @Benioff
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