An independent short-only invst. research firm. X is Not Fin Advise. Short: https://xitter.cf/t.co/ofRJpAEMjI Macro Credit: https://xitter.cf/t.co/zJJixDTTDn
Ridgefield, CT
Joined March 2021
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We have some news to share with you.
We are launching a short-biased fund. We are thrilled to announce that @michaeljburry will act as a senior advisor to our fund, Minerva Investment Management LLC.
An abridged note below.
The Fed: hiking into an oil shock?
If you’re still thinking in terms of rate cuts, adjust your expectations. The Fed started hiking in September with a 25bp move. A Reuters poll taken Oct. 16-20 found 94 of 100 economists expect a hold at 3.75-4.00% this week.
Every single one of the 100 expects a hike in December.
The calendar
- Oct. 28: FOMC decision
- Thursday: Core PCE
- Nov. 3: US midterms, the date Trump has tied to his Iran posture
See below....
“CRE debt wall a massive opportunity” ?
Morons
CNBC calls the CRE debt wall a “massive opportunity.”
$800B due this year.
$733B next year.
Rates roughly double what these loans were written at.
Extend-and-pretend - pray and delay - is over.
Office delinquencies already 12%+.
Multifamily owners who borrowed at 4% now facing 9% with weaker rents.
That’s not an opportunity.
That’s a refinancing cliff.
Most of the pain hits before any bargains show up.
Moron
The AI-driven debt boom is creating some of the most attractive fixed-income opportunities in years, eclipsing the appeal of long-dated US Treasuries, according to BlackRock’s Rick Rieder bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
BREAKING: Yemen's Houthis hit the Saudi Ras Tanura oil refinery with a missile.
Intensifying hostilities between Yemen and Saudi Arabia have further disrupted oil supplies and heightened the risk of a wider regional conflict, eight months since the Iran war began.
reuters.com/business/energy/…
On the ground reporting from our team, @m3_melody
Welcome to day three of our Texas data center tour.
Our team was standing outside El Paso, in front of the $META and BlackRock data center site.
It’s over a thousand acres, and there’s a ton of activity behind us. More on that tomorrow.
Here is what we cover in the daily vlog:
When you upgrade to a Confidential Insights membership, you'll get a discount on the final deep-dive report on data centers: contrarianunicus.substack.co…
Wait, we have FTC?
The US Federal Trade Commission and 20 states sued Dollar General on Monday, alleging the discount retailer routinely charged customers more than the prices displayed on shelves or in advertisements bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Unicus retweeted
Oilers head coach Mike Babcock has a simple message: compete harder.
“It doesn’t matter what you do if you don’t compete harder than the other team. You’re not going to have any success.”
After giving up too many odd man rushes and slot chances, Babcock made it clear that Edmonton’s details, urgency, and commitment have to rise.
No shortcuts. No excuses. Just a higher standard.
Unicus retweeted
Learning so much out here with leads we could not find behind the keyboard - including stumbling upon a 700-acre, 1.2GW planned Cloudburst site which is scheduled to come online in 2027…construction has not begun
👇
Welcome to day two of the data center tour. Yesterday our team toured around the Omicron Vantage sites and the co-located Rogers Road site. These two sites are going to be behind the meter data centers. And what is that? It’s very important to talk about. Here is @m3_melody from the ground.
Click to watch the full video:
He said WHAT?
$NBIS CEO Arkady Volozh Says Debt Markets Closed for Neoclouds Since Last Week
"We have a pretty healthy balance sheet. We always thought about being more conservative here. We used all kinds of instruments. From last week, probably some of the capital sources are temporarily closed, like the asset-backed or debt market. But we're working now with customer advances and several other instruments,which will probably provide us enough finance to build this gigawatt at least."
Welcome to day two of the data center tour. Yesterday our team toured around the Omicron Vantage sites and the co-located Rogers Road site. These two sites are going to be behind the meter data centers. And what is that? It’s very important to talk about. Here is @m3_melody from the ground.
Click to watch the full video:
🚨Breaking from the ground on Data centers:
Hyperscalers: Our Unicus Research Team Is On The Road - Intro Vlog Day 1 @m3_melody
This intro is accessible to all. Access below.
contrarianunicus.substack.co…
To anyone who pre-buys (report will be delivered next month on data centers) will get a one year complimentary Confidential Insight membership.
Stay tuned.
Insane
Thanks @m3_melody and @TravisREMindset for doing the great work
We have the exclusive….access to detailed report. Stay tuned for vlogs in substack as well.
Up for a chill afternoon at the community pool? The noise, natural gas odor and awesome view guarantee a good time.
@TravisREMindset
@UnicusResearch
GAME ON 🏒
The puck is down between the #Oilers & Maple Leafs!
📺: @Sportsnet
📻: @CHED880
#LetsGoOilers
