Political Scientist at SF State University (Race, Voting & Elections, Urban Politics).
San Francisco, CA
Joined June 2009
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This is why I am a YIMBY. The only way to reduce racial segregation is to massively increase housing of all types in cities like SF. I don’t care why you oppose a particular housing project. Neighborhood character is not more important than segregation.
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Jason McDaniel retweeted
i'm in the @nytimes today, on why local elections matter — and which you should know about
nytimes.com/2026/10/28/opini…
Jason McDaniel retweeted
I was on the terrific @UCLALewisCenter Housing Voice Podcast talking about The Great Property Tax Freakout. Check it out! youtube.com/watch?v=Na-87szM…
Jason McDaniel retweeted
Interested in learning more about why we see "blue shifts" and "red shifts" in post-election voting returns? Give our simulation a spin, it's based on published research with @yimenglipolisci and synthetic data.
rmichaelalvarez.github.io/bl…
Jason McDaniel retweeted
NEW: Support for California’s billionaire tax slips, poll finds
sfstandard.com/2026/10/27/bi… @sfstandard
Jason McDaniel retweeted
Another dataset: archived campaign websites of mayoral candidates in the 100 largest U.S. cities between 2010 and 2026.
This includes the top two candidates in each election, plus the top two of the decisive primaries in cities with partisan primaries.
In total, there are 430 elections, approximately 46,000 individual pages. 83% of finalists have website text, with a somewhat higher share of winners than runners-up. In about 71% of elections, I have text for both the winner and the runner-up.
Full page text is in the data. The finalists in elections through 2021 can be linked to the American Local Government Elections Database (ALGED). I plan to extend this to more cities (depending on data availability on the Wayback Machine).
Jason McDaniel retweeted
Happening now: AAPI leaders in SF rally against Proposition 39, which would require voter ID. Top Democrats, including @XavierBecerra, have made Prop. 39 a focal point of their closing argument in recent days
Other leaders here: @fionama @DavidChiu @PhilTing @alankennywong
Jason McDaniel retweeted
From our FirstView: "The Symbolic Politics of Housing" by @dbroockman, @CSElmendorf, and Joshua L. Kalla. buff.ly/zSAab14
ALT APSR abstract for “The Symbolic Politics of Housing,” by David E. Broockman, Christopher S. Elmendorf, and Joshua L. Kalla, Using experiments and causal evidence, the authors show voters’ affect toward groups like developers and investors—made salient by housing policies—shapes opposition to development more than self-interest or NIMBYism alone. Full abstract is available in linked article.
Jason McDaniel retweeted
“Throughout its existence as an independent nation, Mexico rarely has been capable enough to govern without help from its soldiers. This is contrary to a basic democratic principle: The military is supposed to serve the state instead of becoming it.”
thebaffler.com/salvos/bridge…
Jason McDaniel retweeted
"I don’t see RTM losing. But a defeat would be catastrophic for Oakland. If Oakland residents can no longer use BART to get to their San Francisco jobs, they are unlikely to keep living in Oakland."
Oakland is rising. But the defeat of Regional Measure RTM would be catastrophic, beyondchron.org/has-oakland-… @kimmaicutler @OaklandRising #MeasureRTM
Jason McDaniel retweeted
Republicans still have significantly better than "missed field-goal" odds of retaining the Senate. It's a very tough map for Democrats, and the polls in the relevant states are very close!
NEW: The benefits—and perils—of expanding the map
Ds are spending in Mississippi, forcing Rs to match to save a seat they should win in their sleep.
It's also creating HIGH expectations for Senate control flip which some Ds think has gotten out of hand.
nbcnews.com/politics/politic…
Jason McDaniel retweeted
As they fight a tax on their wealth, California’s billionaires have figured out a way to even avoid paying taxes on their political donations:
nytimes.com/2026/10/27/techn…
Jason McDaniel retweeted
“Those dialing-for-dollars are presenting tech entrepreneurs with the option to donate stock that has appreciated in value.. That is appealing because the stockholder can avoid paying a capital-gains tax on donated shares.”
As they fight a tax on their wealth, California’s billionaires have figured out a way to even avoid paying taxes on their political donations:
nytimes.com/2026/10/27/techn…
Jason McDaniel retweeted
NEW POLL
We sometimes release polls for public interest. Our latest poll is for the CA Insurance Commissioner race.
@BenAllenCA now leads. There are still a lot of undecided voters.
Jason McDaniel retweeted
Turnout rises quickly with age, especially in midterms, & survey respondents overreport their confirmed participation. In 2026, young respondents are both more enthusiastic & more Democratic than usual in many important elections. Hard for pollsters; overperformance key for Dems
Jason McDaniel retweeted
Here's the @BrennanCenter landing page for my new piece in the New Yorker on how state election officials are protecting the midterms against the president's attempts to "take over the voting." brennancenter.org/our-work/a…
Jason McDaniel retweeted
This is why Aisha Wahab was named as the Senate Housing Chair. It's why LA has permitted so few new homes after the Palisades fire. It's why the state is eye-wateringly expensive. And it's why young and working class people are fleeing. 2/2
therebuild.pub/p/californias…
Jason McDaniel retweeted
Because we have HAV & APV @ the state x demo level, we're able to compare them v. granularly. On how much groups have shifted since '20, they agree on non-white voters but less so on white voters. Incredible resource to have at your fingertips (& loaded into yr fav LLM's context)
Comparing '20 & '24 data from APV/@Catalist_US/@Nate_Cohn (hereafter HAV -- How Americans Voted) it looks like they all agree for the most part, but on average HAV looks more like APV than Catalist.
Jason McDaniel retweeted
No it was the NIMBYs who displaced minorites and the knew it would happen and that was the point, because thats always what exclusionary zoning has been about.
1978 San Francisco down zoning EIR
Jason McDaniel retweeted
"The Trump Administration’s efforts to cull the electorate before the midterms have, by and large, failed."
My first piece in the New Yorker: newyorker.com/magazine/2026/…
