Wayne Mahar

🗣️ ROLL CALL!!! Bills Mafia, where are you representing from today? @MillerLite | #BALvsBUF

🥶 NOAA WINTER OUTLOOK: WILL SUPER EL NIÑO CONTROL OUR WINTER? Last Winter’s Forecast Was Wrong. History Shows Why This Winter Could Be Different, Too! NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released its Winter Outlook on October 15, covering December through February 2026–2027. The forecast favors a warmer-than-normal winter across much of the northern United States, including Maryland, with an active storm track across the southern states and East Coast. This outlook is heavily influenced by the developing very strong, or “Super”, El Niño. NOAA specifically identifies this event as a primary driver of its seasonal forecast. But before we look ahead, I think it’s important to look back. 🔍 LAST WINTER: FORECAST VS. REALITY NOAA’s outlook favored a warmer-than-normal winter for much of the eastern United States, with colder conditions farther north and west. This was influenced in part by expectations for La Niña. But look at my comparison graphic! The actual temperature pattern was almost the opposite in key areas. 🥶 Here in the Mid-Atlantic, we experienced significant cold, including: ❄️ The January 25 snow and sleet storm. 🥶 Extended Arctic air that followed. ❄️ A deep snowpack that remained on the ground for an unusually long time. 🧊 Extended ice coverage on the Chesapeake Bay. 😉 Many people at CPC have PhDs and are smarter than me… AND STILL GOT IT WRONG! 👉 That should tell you something about the challenges of predicting an entire winter months in advance. 🔥 THIS WINTER: THE SUPER EL NIÑO INFLUENCE This year’s outlook is heavily weighted toward the expected very strong El Niño, which could become one of the strongest on record. That typically favors a more active southern storm track. 🌧️ PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK: ACTIVE SOUTHERN STORM TRACK The expected pattern includes an active Pacific storm track bringing systems across the southern United States. Some of these storms may redevelop near the Gulf Coast and track northeastward, potentially becoming nor’easters. 🌧️ Wetter conditions are favored across much of the southern United States and along the East Coast. 📍 The Mid-Atlantic sits near the northern edge of the more significant precipitation signal. ❄️ For Maryland and surrounding states, the exact storm tracks will be critical. 🎯 A shift of just a couple hundred miles could make a tremendous difference in how much precipitation we receive and whether it falls as rain, snow, or ice. 🌡️ TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK: LESS ARCTIC AIR? NOAA favors above-normal temperatures across much of the northern United States, including the Mid-Atlantic. This is consistent with the typical strong El Niño pattern, which often limits the frequency of Arctic intrusions. But here’s where I think we need to be careful. ⚠️ EL NIÑO IS NOT THE ONLY PLAYER! Other atmospheric influences can significantly alter the winter pattern, including: ❄️ The Polar Vortex: Disruptions can allow Arctic air to plunge southward. ❄️ North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO): A negative phase can favor blocking patterns that hold cold air in the eastern United States. ❄️ High-Latitude Blocking: Changes in the jet stream can redirect Arctic air and alter storm tracks. These factors can sometimes overwhelm the typical El Niño influence for extended periods. And many of these atmospheric patterns are difficult to predict months in advance. 📚 HISTORY: NOT ALL SUPER EL NIÑOS ARE THE SAME! Let’s compare three of the strongest El Niño winters in modern history. ❄️ 1982–1983: THE PRESIDENTS’ DAY BLIZZARD One of the strongest El Niño events on record. Baltimore experienced the historic February 1983 Presidents’ Day snowstorm, which dumped 22.8 inches at BWI. 🌡️ 1997–1998: VERY LITTLE SNOW Another exceptionally strong El Niño. But this time, Baltimore experienced a remarkably mild winter with very little snowfall. ❄️ 2015–2016: FROM SHORTS TO A RECORD BLIZZARD! The last Super El Niño provides one of my favorite examples. 🌡️ We were wearing SHORTS on Christmas Day! ❄️ Just one month later, January 22–23, 2016, Baltimore was buried under 29.2 inches of snow! That remains the largest snowstorm on record at BWI. It was essentially our ONLY major snowstorm of the winter! Three exceptionally strong El Niño winters. Three very different snowfall outcomes in Baltimore. ❄️ AND REMEMBER JANUARY 2000! This is a separate example because we were actually in a STRONG LA NIÑA, the opposite Pacific Ocean pattern. Yet an otherwise relatively mild winter was dramatically changed by an approximately 10-day stretch of winter storms. That short period helped push Baltimore’s seasonal snowfall ABOVE AVERAGE! This is another reminder that an entire winter’s snowfall can be determined by a relatively brief period of favorable conditions. 🎯 MY TAKE(coming soon): THERE IS MORE TO THE STORY I respect the science behind NOAA’s seasonal outlook. But last winter demonstrated why we should never treat a seasonal forecast as a guarantee. My Winter Outlooks are far from perfect as well. But I still show my suggestions for what I anticipate and will aim to have that in a couple of weeks. 👀 The strong El Niño signal gives us a starting point, but it does not tell the entire story. 👀 An active southern storm track combined with the right blocking pattern could produce a very different winter in the Mid-Atlantic than the temperature outlook might initially suggest. 🤔 And remember, a winter can average warmer than normal while still producing a historic snowstorm. ‼️ My winter outlook may differ from NOAA’s, particularly when we consider additional atmospheric influences and historical comparisons. I’ll be exploring those factors as I develop my own forecast. ❄️ THE BOTTOM LINE: A WARMER-THAN-NORMAL WINTER DOES NOT MEAN WE CANNOT HAVE MAJOR SNOWSTORMS! Sometimes all it takes is ONE storm or ONE stretch of Arctic air to change an entire winter. #WinterOutlook #ElNino #Maryland #Snow