Wellington-Altus

Trump Lost Congress. America Is Not Turning Back. Trump and the Republicans may have suffered a sobering defeat, but America is not turning back. Voters have spoken: Iran was a bridge too far. This is how democracy works, voters impose limits, and political incentives change. The market narrative has been higher rates, expensive energy and endless disruption. I expect the opposite. As the political cycle turns toward 2028, the incentive to demonstrate disruption gives way to the need to deliver results. Expensive energy, unaffordable housing and punishing financing costs make poor campaign material. Political incentives now favor stabilization, investment and lower inflation. Losing the House and Senate does not erase the foundations of Trump’s first two years. His economic agenda remains in place. Democratic control does not automatically unwind tariffs, reverse immigration enforcement or return the border to Biden-era policies. Democrats can block new legislation; dismantling what is already in place is another matter. The task now is to implement America First, and demonstrate that it delivers. The next market story is less about what Trump can disrupt and more about what he needs to make work.

After the Midterms: The Scarcity Trade Is Over Markets are still priced for scarcity and endless disruption—higher rates, $200 oil, and geopolitical disorder that never ends. After the midterms, that narrative breaks. Political incentives shift from demonstrating chaos to delivering results ahead of 2028. Expensive energy, unaffordable housing, and punishing financing costs are electoral liabilities, not assets. Stabilization, investment, and lower inflation become the priority. The call is straightforward: the U.S. Treasury curve steepens toward a 100-basis-point 2s10s spread, with the 10-year falling near 4% and the two-year toward 3%. Oil sells off. Productivity-led growth takes hold as the economy escapes secular stagnation on the model of the post-World War II expansion. Simultaneously, a crypto supercycle emerges, comparable in scale to the commodity boom that followed China’s WTO entry. These are not separate bets. They share a common foundation: abundance—more productive capacity, cheaper intelligence, and financial infrastructure that mobilizes capital more efficiently. Wall Street is still underwriting persistent scarcity. The opportunity lies in its erosion. Intelligence has infinite demand; the constraint is no longer technology or capital, but the outdated frameworks pricing the old world.

My response to the Central Bankers Policy mistakes. 👇