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ALT Bar chart titled "Live Voter Turnout (70.1% as of 18:00)", showing estimated turnout by ethnic group in the 2026 Melaka state election (SE-16, black) compared with the 2022 general election (GE-15, red). - Malay (62.6% of voters): 78.1% in SE-16, vs 80.6% in GE-15 - Chinese (28.4% of voters): 58.8% in SE-16, vs 72.2% in GE-15 - Indian (6.5% of voters): 58.0% in SE-16, vs 77.5% in GE-15 The Indian bars are hatched to show these are the least certain estimates. Turnout fell for every group compared with GE-15. Malay turnout barely moved (down 2.5 points), while Chinese turnout fell sharply (down 13.4 points). Footnote: Estimated using ecological inference at polling district (DM) level, exploiting the differing geographic distribution of each ethnic group. 'Indian' is a smaller, more dispersed group, so its estimates are least certain.
ALT A 2ร2 panel of maps of Melaka, headed "Melaka's ethnic mix varies widely among DMs". Each map shades Melaka's 211 polling districts (DMs) by one ethnic group's share of registered voters, on a shared blue scale from 0% (lightest) to 100% (darkest), with DUN boundaries outlined. Malay (63% of voters statewide, majority in 148 DMs) is dark across most of the state, especially the north-west and the south-east coast. Chinese (28%, majority in 49 DMs) is concentrated in and around Melaka town on the central coast, with a few dark pockets inland. Indian (6%, majority in 2 DMs) is light in most places, with a few darker DMs in the north and east. Other (3%, majority in no DM) is near-white almost everywhere. Source: electiondata.my voter roll for Melaka SE-16.
ALT A 2ร2 panel of scatter plots headed "Turnout rises with the Malay share of each DM", showing projected turnout as of 15:30 on polling day. In each panel, each dot is one of Melaka's 211 DMs, sized by number of voters. The x-axis is one ethnic group's share of the DM's voters (0โ100%) and the y-axis is the DM's projected turnout. A fitted line runs through the dots and is extended as a dotted line to 100%, where a blue dot marks the group's estimated turnout. Malay: turnout rises from about 58% in DMs with no Malay voters to about 75% in all-Malay DMs; estimate 76.0%. Chinese: turnout falls as the Chinese share rises, from about 74% to 58%; estimate 59.4%. Indian: the dots cluster below 30% Indian share and the line slopes gently down; estimate 60.2%, slightly above the line's end. Other: the dots cluster below 15% and the line slopes steeply down; estimate 35.1%. Methodology: Goodman ecological regression, raked to observed turnout in each DM. Source: api.electiondata.my
ALT Bar chart titled "Live Voter Turnout (24.8% as of 10:35)", showing estimated turnout by ethnic group in the 2026 Melaka state election. Each group has two bars: turnout now (10:35) and projected final turnout at 18:00. Malay: 26.9% now, projected 71.9% Chinese: 20.6% now, projected 65.6% Indian: 23.3% now, projected 68.9% Other: 21.5% now, projected 58.4% Malay turnout is highest so far and Chinese the lowest. A footnote says the figures are estimated using ecological inference at polling-district level, and that "Other" is a small, dispersed group, so its estimates are the least certain.
