AD Mitchell dropping the ball before entering the endzone last year was the final straw for Indianapolis.
Ironically, that mistake was the best thing for Mitchell’s career.
The Jags were ranked 24th in Pass Rate Over Expectation going into Week 8.
That won't change unless the offense is forced into a shootout, and their schedule doesn't encourage many of those.
Zareh Kantzabedian retweeted
Lamar Jackson heads to IR
Tyler Huntley left and did not return
Ravens host the Jaguars on TNF in Week 9
HOLD Jacksonville D/ST 🔥
Fantasy Analysts will reference their rankings for start/sit questions, but rarely when setting their own lineups.
Trevor Lawrence is a legit fantasy QB1 this year.
This is why.
Teams with high Pass Rate Over Expectation rates generally suggest their QBs will finish top 12 in fantasy.
More passing volume. Makes sense.
Unfortunately, the Jaguars rank 24th in PROE.
Doesn't sound great, right? Stay with me.
Through the first seven weeks of this season, Trevor Lawrence and Jayden Daniels are the only two top-12 QBs on teams that rank 20th or lower in PROE.
Since 2022, through the first seven weeks of the season, 11 top-12 QBs have played on teams ranked 20th or lower in PROE.
And, only eight of those 11 finished as QB1s.
Not the best odds. But, here's the kicker.
Only two of those eight QBs to finish were pure pocket passers with zero rushing upside:
Jared Goff (2024)
Brock Purdy (2025)
Both of them finished #1 in Pass EPA each year and were at least top four in PASS EPA through the first seven weeks.
Trevor Lawrence currently ranks third in Pass EPA.
Now imagine if Jacksonville starts giving Lawrence some goal line rushing TDs.