Tech/Autos analyst at Global Energy Transition L/S fund; Ex-HSBC analyst; IIT-B+ Nanyang MBA; In the long term, we're all dead!

Delhi
Joined July 2009
I shall be tweeting on 8th edition of TIA 20-20 Ideas summit (2024 episode) today. This is organized by @TIA_Investors .
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"We initiate position before appearing to media (Zee Business) and Exit positions after giving calls on Zee Business" SEBI observed Front Running by Zee Business Guest amounting to 7,00,00,000...!! 5 Stock Market Experts of Zee have been banned A thread #Redflag #corporategovernance #SEBI #scam #ZeeBusiness #StockMarket #ShareMarket
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UPL In Focus Results tom Potential exclusion from Nifty; $107 million outflows Corteva results indicate price & volume decline continue in Americas and EMEA Guidance - Latin America & EMEA both will see destocking Expect modest crop protection growth in CY25 #UPL #StockToWatch
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Department doe s NOT issue any communication regarding the outcome of the search much less a written communication!! The company will get the written communication regarding the outcome of the search only by way of reassessment orders after a few months!
Polycab statement: The company reiterates that as on date, the company has not received any written communication from the #IncomeTax Department regarding the outcome of the search.
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One of India's biggest developers, DLF, launched its project at one of the least developed locations in Gurugram at one of the highest new launch prices in recent times! Best wishes to investors 👍
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Nov'23 export data: - Chemical exports de-grew by 11% YoY - Ready-made garement exports continue to be weak - Cotton Yarn & Home Textiles exports continue to grow albeit at a slower pace. - Pharma grew by 7% - Rice exports declied by 27% - Electronics showed flattish numbers
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I hear this often. Market CAN NOT fall because of SIP flows. Here is a take SIP flows, at the current run rate, avg about 2 Lakh Cr annually. Its a huge number. But let's put a few numbers in prespective. First, Over the past three financial year, Mutual Fund Net Purchases of equity have totaled the followed: FY23: 1.6 Lk Cr FY22: 1.7 Lk Cr FY21: -1.1 Lk Cr FY16 to FY20 avg: 85K Cr In FY24 (Apr-Nov) the MF purchase of equity is 95K Cr. If we annualize this number, it could reach 1.4 Lk Cr by end of the year. This means that, in spite of getting 2 Lk Cr in SIP inflows, the net purchases are lower. This is because of redemptions and marginally due to some cash drag. Meaning, SIP figures ≠ MF purchase of equity entirely. It is a part. Second, The annaulized number of this year, when compared to India's total market capitalizatoin of 345 Lk Cr is less than 50bps of the full MCap and less than 1% of free float MCap. It is too small to make any meaningful difference, yet. Over time, it can contribute to reducing volatility as its size grows, but it won't determine the direction of the equity market. Third, There is a big case study in what additional, passive or forced flows can do. Bank of Japan started buying Japanese equity ETFs in Oct 2010. Since then it has bought equities worth approx $500 Bn vs Japan Equity MCap of $6 trillion or nearly 8% of MCap. Since, it began these purchases for 2 years nothing happened. Post that with the Nikkei 225, firms that made consitent profits and were priced a fair value did exceedingly better than the rest. This means that this free dose of liquidity didn't lift all boats. Finally, Ultimately, earnings and the quality of earnings dictate long-term stock prices.. All types of investors cumulatively - retail, FIIs, Institutional - are eventually only chasing the price unless they have a philosophy. This is one way of looking at it. I am sure there are more angles that I may have missed and need to be explored.
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ThirdSide retweeted
“Cautious optimism” basically means “ab tak fati nahi hai lekin fat sakti hai” – at Mumbai, India
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As per one 2w dealer, people are taking personal loan at 10-12% instead of 2w loan for financing 2W's.
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“The market will regulate itself.” The market: xitter.cf/Culture_Crit/status/17…
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Analyst's wife to analyst: Our son has failed in his exams. He has got only 20 out of 100. You should be strict with him. Analyst: Relax. I had already discounted that information 3 months ago. Next year if he gets even 24 marks, it will be a 20 pct improvement.
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Major new FT investigation into Adani shows trade-based money laundering involving $5b in imports since 2021 alone. Report reveals ongoing dummy invoicing & overseas entities used to inflate coal prices, passing costs on to customers. ft.com/content/7aadb3d7-4a03…
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Lots of spec about the Soc Gen India trader in the market yesterday. The trader replied, clarifying he's still an employee and threatened defamation. Question: why has his Bloomberg account been de-activated? The terminal is a key way for insti traders to chat/discuss orders.
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Ratio of BSE Small Cap Index to Nifty. A datapoint we track regularly and is showing clear signs of froth in the small cap space. If one jogs the memory, from Jan 2018 there was a big drawdown in the small cap stocks after a similar runup. Good time to clean up the portfolio.
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Promoters are gradually turning into politicians! Second half will be better, margins will improve by 150-200 basis points, revenue to be double by FY2026, will be net debt free in 4 quarters, India has great growth story, China + 1, Europe + 1, Pakistan + 1, This is a decadal opportunity, never seen such opportunity before, nada nada nada…! Corporate Politicians!
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Replying to @_ThirdSide_
BASF CEO thinking through structural changes
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Kotak on Specialty Chemicals ▪ Amid weak demand, destocking by customers and stiff competition from China, chemical prices in general remain under pressure. A few examples of products witnessing price erosion are ▪ glyphosate (sold by Bayer and Sumitomo), where imports into India are surging, 2,4-D (Atul), phenol (Deepak Nitrite), caustic soda (GACL, DCM, etc.), ammonia and ammonium nitrate (Deepak Fertilisers). ▪ Prices of soda ash in China have stabilized after a sharp correction, offering respite to Tata Chemicals and GHCL. ▪ Prices of epoxy resins (Atul) have ticked up modestly, although import volumes remain heavy. ▪ PTFE (GFL, SRF) export prices remain firm, but volumes have dwindled. ▪ In the refrigerant category (relevant for SRF), import prices of R-32 remain under pressure amid increased imports. ▪ For Vinati Organics, ATBS export volumes reveal downward pressure.
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Replying to @_ThirdSide_
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ThirdSide retweeted
Yesterday's $TSLA earnings call was *wild*. Elon gave investing advice, cited Benjamin Graham and claimed Tesla could 10x from here ($9+ trillion). You will find all the highlights in this thread 🧵 1. @elonmusk recommends ARK Invest, calling their research "the best":
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I worked in an IT prod co where guys in india were given an all expenses trip to nepal and those in US to Hawaii. 6 months post that 60% of the employees were kicked out in one day.
Coforge Management: Margins missed since paid European holidays were given to all Coforge employees in this quarter instead of iPads. We collectively realized that we don't have to work anymore for our stock price performance
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