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Here's my 2026 Senate Prediction:
#NVEV #FLEV #NCEV 2024 Official Prediction: NV: Trump by 3 or more FL: Trump by 13 or more NC: Trump by 4 or more National Popular Vote: Trump by 2 or more EC: Trump by 312 or more
21
8
135
15,527
🚨 WOW! Gov. Ron DeSantis announces Florida Republicans' US Congressional seats are **UNCHANGED** from 2024 because of the map he drew Before: 20R-8D Now: 20R-8D (post-blue tsunami) "Had the old map been in effect, it would have been 18 Republicans and 10 Democrats." FLORIDA IS HOLDING THE LINE ☀️ Genuinely crazy how not only this but our statewide offices went straight red, after what happened to the country. Gov. Ron DeSantis constructed an absolute firewall and we MUST keep building it!
87
455
13
2,953
102,099
Let's look at this a different way. What if we had won? We would drift into 2028 with a weak Thune-led Senate, achieving little. RINO's would still block the Trump agenda. We'd likely lose the White House and Congress then which would be worse! If we were going to take this bitter pill to fix our party, NOW was the time. We can retool and rebrand and come back with a stronger offering in 2028 while Democrats have two years to remind America how awful they are. Ironically, strategically this may have been for the best. Face it, our GOP Congress sucked and this may be the only way we could have fixed it.
191
359
25
1,597
34,086
Just received this from a voter in Michigan: 📍Wayne County, MI
1,237
15,358
449
39,513
973,025
#FL #ElectionDay2026 update 2024 total E-day R lead: 382k Today as of 09:15 EST R lead: 96k 12:45 R lead: 306k 14:25 R lead: 382k (2024 eday number) 15:55 R lead: 450k 17:45 R lead: 543k (e-day) and 672k (8.5 pts) overall. That should reach 9 pts before polls close
1
6
52
3,811
Do you want #Sharia to replace U.S. #Constitution ? You know what to do. Vote RED up and down. There's still time. Go out and vote, now.
If Abdul El-Sayed wins tonight, there will be hundreds, literally hundreds, of Muslim candidates running in future elections at every level of government: local, state, and federal. And if 2028 is a more favorable environment for Democrats, HUNDREDS of Muslims could be elected. The DSA will be instrumental in pushing Muslims into positions of power at a disproportionate rate. People have no idea what’s coming.
5
44
2,668
Well, my guess was 9, so I'm in agreement.
Republicans are now at R+7.6 in banked Florida votes. That’s where they were expected at the start of the morning, and that advantage should grow, if modestly from here on out. Given past blowouts, that’s nothing to write home about but a sign of life for the GOP electorate.
2
38
3,735
#FL #ElectionDay2026 update 2024 total E-day R lead: 382k Today as of 09:15 EST R lead: 96k 10:45 EST R lead: 191k 11:45 EST R lead: 256k 12:45 EST R lead: 306k 14:25 EST R lead: 382k 15:55 EST R lead: 450k 3-4 hrs to go. Rs can bank 100k-150k more. LFG!
4
2
54
3,175
🚨 JUST IN: Muslim-dominated Dearborn, Michigan surpassed 2022 turnout 7 hours before poll close AMERICANS MUST VOTE. They want to conquer!
333
1,785
49
8,868
287,507
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In NC, Hyde (Trump+22), Tyrrell (Trump +39) and Gate (Trump +39) county have the highest ED turnout while Wake county (Harris +26) has the lowest ED turnout. Looks like republicans are activating their voters to turn out in full force in the Tar Heel State.
21
125
9
728
26,081
On a same-time snapshot, Florida is over 100K votes ahead than on Election Day 2024. Overall, Florida is currently at a D+4 shift relative to 2024. Nevada had a sluggish start, but is ramping up quickly in the rurals, the same places where FL is surging. Lombardo will still have a tough fight, but CD-2 should be a retain. If these 2 states represent a pattern for rural turnouts nationwide, this means good things for KS, IA, ME. Then it'd come down to OH and possibly MI/TX for Senate control. I don't see clear evidence of TX pointing in one direction or another yet. The error margins cross right where Paxton needs to be in my models. Just stay in line and vote.
163
1,078
36
6,895
385,196
#FL #ElectionDay2026 update 2024 total E-day R lead: 382k Today as of 09:15 EST R lead: 96k 10:45 EST R lead: 191k 11:45 EST R lead: 256k 12:45 EST R lead: 306k 14:25 EST R lead: 382k R lead at the same level as one at the end of e-day 2024. We have 6.5 more hours. LFG!
#FL #ElectionDay2026 update 2024 total E-day R lead: 382k Today as of 09:15 EST R lead: 96k 10:45 EST R lead: 191k Half of the R lead of 2024 e-day has been achieved in a little over 3 hours, with more than 8 or 9 hours (time zone dependent) of voting still remaining!
3
4
47
3,698
#FL #ElectionDay2026 update As of 2pm EST, e-day total turnout is 1.5 mil and at 107% of the 2024 turnout at the same time! And Rs are outperforming 2024 e-day by 5 pts. Not bad, given the early vote was not nearly as good as in 2024.
1
7
64
4,714
#FL #ElectionDay2026 update 2024 total E-day R lead: 382k Today as of 09:15 EST R lead: 96k 10:45 EST R lead: 191k 11:45 EST R lead: 256k 12:45 EST R lead: 306k Should go past the 382k mark (2024 entire E-day R lead) by 14:00
4
3
40
3,970
1/ Montgomery — Trump +45.5 in 2024 — a midterm just did something remarkable: its 2nd and 3rd hours BOTH beat the presidential race's same hours. Hour 2: 5,562 vs 5,034 in 2024. Hour 3: tracking ~5,100–5,200 vs 4,869. 2/ Scale it: Montgomery's best early-voting hour EVER was 1,912. Today's hour 2 alone is nearly 3x that. The first three hours (~16,636 projected) already equal 77% of the entire record early-voting day (21,685). 3/ Presidential elections are the turnout ceiling — midterms are supposed to run well below them. A deep-red county matching or exceeding presidential pace at 10 AM in a midterm is not normal.
13
64
7
380
36,198
#FL #ElectionDay2026 update 2024 total E-day R lead: 382k Today as of 09:15 EST R lead: 96k 10:45 EST R lead: 191k 11:45 EST R lead: 256k 12:25 EST R lead: 291k At this rate, we will reach the R advantage of the entire e-day in 2024 by 14:00 EST, with 6 more hrs to go
1
5
1
43
3,527
#FL #ElectionDay2026 update 2024 total E-day R lead: 382k Today as of 09:15 EST R lead: 96k 10:45 EST R lead: 191k 11:45 EST R lead: 256k
1
1
26
4,475
#FL #ElectionDay2026 update As of this hour, 11:25 EST, today's turnout is at 100.2% of the 2024 turnout of the same time. Despite the weather. Despite Trump being not on the ballot. LFG.
1
12
148
4,680
#FL #ElectionDay2026 update 2024 total E-day R lead: 382k Today as of 09:15 EST R lead: 96k 10:45 EST R lead: 191k Half of the R lead of 2024 e-day has been achieved in a little over 3 hours, with more than 8 or 9 hours (time zone dependent) of voting still remaining!
1
5
1
40
6,362
#FL #ElectionDay2026 update As of this hour, today's turnout is at 96.1% of the 2024 turnout of the same time.
3
4
74
4,281
FLASHBACK: 2 years ago tonight, Selzer put out a poll with Harris up 3% in Iowa! (Trump ended up winning it by 13%) This was the smug reaction on MSNBC:
179
858
58
11,247
1,171,844