Avtar Sehra retweeted
THE PERKINI REPORT: THE 2028 REALITY CRISIS
What if the most obvious financial bubble in all of history turns out to be.... a bubble... and what if that is just really.... bearish?
there were signs, there are always signs 🤣
free link:
hub.tslombard.com/the-perkin…
inspired by @citrini
Avtar Sehra retweeted
Stanford gave LLMs the ability to think without words.
They call it "Hybrid Reasoning Agents"
Every AI you use right now has a massive blind spot. At its core, it is just a giant autocomplete engine.
It is brilliant at language, but fundamentally terrible at rigorous logic.
When you ask an AI to solve a complex math problem, execute a multi-step coding workflow, or map out a business strategy, it doesn't actually "think."
It guesses what the next word should be based on probability.
That is why your AI hallucinates. It uses vibes to do math.
Now, a new paper called "Hybrid Reasoning Agents" just completely changed the paradigm.
Researchers realized you can't fix this by just making the model bigger. You have to change how it processes reality.
They took the creative, language-generating power of a standard LLM (System 1) and wired it directly into a deterministic, symbolic logic engine (System 2).
Instead of predicting the next word and hoping it's right, the AI drafts a solution and instantly runs it through a strict logical solver to prove it works.
If the logic fails, the AI catches it, rewrites it, and tests it again. All in the background. All before you ever see the output.
It perfectly bridges the gap between neural networks (which guess) and symbolic logic (which proves).
And the results are staggering.
Complex reasoning and planning tasks that completely break traditional models are now being solved with near-perfect accuracy.
Because the AI is no longer relying on probability to verify its own logic.
Now that AI agents can own an outcome from start to finish, how do you sell them?
1. Sell the platform:
License the agent to a company to run in its own operations. No existing contract sets the price, so there's more upside, but new budgets take time to approve and results are harder to credit to the agent.
2. Sell the service:
Take over work a company already outsources, the way Red Ventures sold policies for insurers and got paid per policy closed. The budget already exists, so deals close faster, but the highest-value work usually runs in-house, which caps the upside.
3. Go full-stack:
Become the business, like buying debt portfolios and collecting on them yourself. You keep all the value the AI creates, but you also take on the licensing and compliance.
Full piece from a16z's @dhaber on long-running agents in high-value customer journeys: a16z.news/p/winning-the-rela…
Avtar Sehra retweeted
I’ve been doing this the last 3 years (finetuning slms for special purposes) and it’s a surefire way to experience the bitter lesson.
It’s good for specific use-cases like high volume or low latency tasks but it’s not cheap.
You end up in a never ending spiral of dataset and eval curation, model release chasing, managing inference. Yes, you can beat the big lab model at the one very specific task but its not easy to do and ongoing maintenance is expensive, even with agents.
We were able to fine tune an open weight model (Qwen3.5-9B) on proprietary internal data at @coinbase, and it out performed frontier models, at much lower cost and speed, for a specialized task (fraud prevention in this case).
I think we'll see more of this pattern inside companies. The frontier models are amazing generalists. But increasingly you'll see specialist models out perform on more narrow tasks, either working on teams, or by themselves.
We're making it easy to fine tune models internally for our employees. We even have a skill for it in our internal harness that makes it easy to spin these up and start training them:
"/fine-tune-and-serve-llm I want to fine-tune Qwen for payments risk review. help me get started"
I imagine we'll have some backend services that could be replaced entirely by this new architecture.
Avtar Sehra retweeted
Why We Should Measure LLM Usage in Bytes, Not Tokens
I think we are using the wrong unit to measure the economics of LLMs.
Today almost everything in AI is expressed in tokens: API pricing, rate limits, context windows and, increasingly, the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) calculations enterprises use when comparing models. The problem is that a token isn’t actually a standardized unit of data. It is an artifact of a particular model’s tokenizer.
Different Across Vendors and Languages
Different models use different vocabularies and tokenization schemes, so exactly the same piece of text can result in very different numbers of tokens. This makes comparisons like “$5 per million tokens” surprisingly difficult to interpret. Two vendors can quote exactly the same price per million tokens while one costs materially more to process the same underlying dataset.
The problem becomes even more obvious across languages. Tokenizers have historically been much more efficient at representing English than many other languages. A word or sentence that requires a small number of tokens in English can require several times as many when expressed in Hindi, Arabic or other languages.
Take something as simple as “Welcome”. In English, a tokenizer may encode the whole word as a single token. The Hindi equivalent, “स्वागत”, can be fragmented across several tokens depending on the tokenizer. The meaning hasn’t suddenly become several times more complicated, but the token count has increased. That affects cost and also consumes more of the model’s context window.
This creates a strange situation where the economics of processing information depend partly on the vocabulary chosen by the company that built the model.
A Model-Independent Measure: Bytes
There is a much simpler way of looking at this: bytes.
A gigabyte of text is a gigabyte of text regardless of whether it is being processed by OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta or a model that hasn’t been invented yet. So rather than only comparing models on $/million tokens, enterprises should also be looking at $/MB or $/GB of data processed for a given level of output quality.
That lets you ask a much more meaningful question: given the same real-world dataset and the same task, what does it actually cost each model to process it?
Tokens obviously aren’t going away. They remain an important part of how current LLMs represent and process information internally. But there is no particular reason why an implementation detail inside the model should also become the universal economic unit for comparing models.
Bytes for Enterprise Metrics
We don’t price computing based on how a system internally represents data. With databases, for example, we measure the data going in, the data being stored and managed, and the cost of processing it. LLMs should be no different.
As LLMs become infrastructure, I think this distinction becomes increasingly important.
Tokens are a model-specific unit of computation. Bytes are a model-independent unit of data.
For enterprise benchmarking, we should probably be measuring both.
#LLM #EnterpriseAI #AIInfrastructure
Why We Should Measure LLM Usage in Bytes, Not Tokens
I think we are using the wrong unit to measure the economics of LLMs.
Today almost everything in AI is expressed in tokens: API pricing, rate limits, context windows and, increasingly, the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) calculations enterprises use when comparing models. The problem is that a token isn’t actually a standardized unit of data. It is an artifact of a particular model’s tokenizer.
Different Across Vendors and Languages
Different models use different vocabularies and tokenization schemes, so exactly the same piece of text can result in very different numbers of tokens. This makes comparisons like “$5 per million tokens” surprisingly difficult to interpret. Two vendors can quote exactly the same price per million tokens while one costs materially more to process the same underlying dataset.
The problem becomes even more obvious across languages. Tokenizers have historically been much more efficient at representing English than many other languages. A word or sentence that requires a small number of tokens in English can require several times as many when expressed in Hindi, Arabic or other languages.
Take something as simple as “Welcome”. In English, a tokenizer may encode the whole word as a single token. The Hindi equivalent, “स्वागत”, can be fragmented across several tokens depending on the tokenizer. The meaning hasn’t suddenly become several times more complicated, but the token count has increased. That affects cost and also consumes more of the model’s context window.
This creates a strange situation where the economics of processing information depend partly on the vocabulary chosen by the company that built the model.
A Model-Independent Measure: Bytes
There is a much simpler way of looking at this: bytes.
A gigabyte of text is a gigabyte of text regardless of whether it is being processed by OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta or a model that hasn’t been invented yet. So rather than only comparing models on $/million tokens, enterprises should also be looking at $/MB or $/GB of data processed for a given level of output quality.
That lets you ask a much more meaningful question: given the same real-world dataset and the same task, what does it actually cost each model to process it?
Tokens obviously aren’t going away. They remain an important part of how current LLMs represent and process information internally. But there is no particular reason why an implementation detail inside the model should also become the universal economic unit for comparing models.
Bytes for Enterprise Metrics
We don’t price computing based on how a system internally represents data. With databases, for example, we measure the data going in, the data being stored and managed, and the cost of processing it. LLMs should be no different.
As LLMs become infrastructure, I think this distinction becomes increasingly important.
Tokens are a model-specific unit of computation. Bytes are a model-independent unit of data.
For enterprise benchmarking, we should probably be measuring both.
#LLM #EnterpriseAI #AIInfrastructure
Avtar Sehra retweeted
Could Compiled-Loops Be the Next Major Growth Area for Agentic Systems?
Loops:
A loop in AI is the repeated cycle through which a system observes what is happening, decides what to do, takes an action, sees the result, and then decides again. In simple terms: observe → decide → act → observe → repeat. This loop is what allows an AI system to adapt to changing conditions rather than simply follow a fixed sequence of instructions.
In-the-Loop:
When AI is in-the-loop, the model remains part of this live decision-making cycle. A trigger occurs, the model decides what should happen next, an action is taken, the result is returned to the model, and it decides again. This is the foundation of many agentic systems. It allows agents to reason through novel situations, choose tools, react to unexpected results and dynamically determine the path towards an outcome.
But there is a trade-off. Every time the model is asked what to do next, part of the execution path is being determined at runtime by a probabilistic system. That is useful when the problem is novel or ambiguous. It becomes less attractive when the correct process is already known, particularly for critical, regulated or high-volume operations where consistency, cost, latency, auditability and predictable outcomes matter.
Compiled-Loop:
This is where Compiled-Loops could become an important new category of agentic applications.
A Compiled-Loop changes the role of the model. AI can remain in-the-loop to discover, reason about, build and improve a process. But once that process is understood, tested and approved, it can be compiled into a governed, deterministic application. Instead of asking the model to rediscover how to execute the process every time, the known path becomes software.
The agent does not disappear. Its role changes.
An agent can monitor emails, documents, chats and other sources, extract and structure the required information, and pass it into the appropriate Compiled-Loop. The Compiled-Loop then performs the known operation predictably and at scale. The agent remains available around the edges, handling ambiguity, exceptions and genuinely novel situations that the compiled application was not designed to resolve.
Self Improving Compiled Loops:
Crucially, advancement comes through exceptions. When the Compiled-Loop encounters something outside its known operating envelope, the exception can be escalated back into the adaptive AI loop. The agent reasons through the new case, determines an appropriate response, and the outcome becomes new evidence about how the system should behave. Where that response proves repeatable, safe and useful, it can be tested, governed and incorporated into the next version of the Compiled-Loop.
Agent discovers → process is compiled → Compiled-Loop executes → exceptions emerge → agent resolves → Compiled-Loop improves.
Future of Agentic Applications:
Over time, successful agentic systems may therefore develop a growing library of Compiled-Loops. Instead of an agent reasoning from first principles through thousands or millions of repeated operations, it learns which governed applications to invoke and reserves expensive probabilistic reasoning for the cases that actually require intelligence.
This could be particularly important in banking, payments, healthcare, government, industrial systems and other environments where operations must be executed reliably at enormous scale.
The future of agentic systems may therefore not be about putting increasingly powerful models into every execution loop. It may be about determining when the model should be in the loop, and when a process has become sufficiently understood to earn its way out of it.
Learn in-the-loop. Run in compiled-loop. Govern everything.
@karpathy @DarioAmodei @bcherny
I did the math on @Tesla's Cybercab, and the economics are pretty interesting.
Assume:
$30k purchase price
500k-mile lifetime
1 battery replacement
300 miles/day
250 paid miles/day
6-mile average trip
Electricity + maintenance + insurance + cleaning included
The result:
~$154k total lifetime cost
~31¢ per actual mile
~37¢ per paid mile
~$2.22 cost per 6-mile trip
Even assuming a 20% network fee, break-even is only ~$2.77 per trip.
At a $5 average fare, one Cybercab could generate ~$76k/year in revenue and ~$27k/year in economic profit after amortising the vehicle, battery and operating costs.
The surprising part is that the battery and electricity barely make or break the model.
The real economics come down to one thing: utilisation.
Keeping the fleet occupied introduces another major cost: customer acquisition, marketing, pricing incentives and competition. But much of the demand aggregation and distribution could ultimately be handled by the Tesla Robotaxi app itself.
That changes where entrepreneurs and fleet operators add value.
Rather than needing to build another Uber from scratch, operators could compete through partnerships, incentives, loyalty programmes, bundled services and other perks that increase utilisation and revenue per vehicle.
And this is where I think it gets really interesting.
If autonomous ride-hailing reaches equilibrium, with mature demand, predictable utilisation and increasingly standardised operating costs, Cybercabs start looking less like cars and more like infrastructure.
Imagine buying 1,000 Cybercabs into an SPV.
That is ~$30m of physical assets producing potentially measurable, recurring cash flows every day.
You could securitise the fleet and issue instruments backed by those cash flows. Investors fund the Cybercabs and receive a share of ride revenues and residual value, while specialist operators manage the fleet and optimise utilisation.
We already finance aircraft, shipping fleets, solar farms, data centres and other productive infrastructure in similar ways.
Autonomous fleets could become another yield-generating infrastructure asset class.
And because every vehicle is connected, every trip is measurable and revenues are generated digitally, the underlying cash flows could potentially be far more transparent and programmable than many traditional infrastructure assets.
In equilibrium, this could become less of a bet on cars or even ride-hailing, and much more of a pure infrastructure investment play.
The investment thesis isn’t really about buying cars.
It’s about financing productive infrastructure that happens to move people and goods around.
teslaoracle.com/2026/09/10/t…
this is pure f*cking treasure
before refreshing the feed for Sam Altman’s next announcement, look at what a better workflow did with GPT-3.5.
95.1% on HumanEval with an agentic workflow.
67.0% for GPT-4 answering in one pass.
results reported by Andrew Ng, reproduced in this independent guide.
four patterns behind the approach:
> reflection: draft, check, revise
> tools: retrieve information and test
> planning: split the task into steps
> collaboration: assign distinct responsibilities
the diagram connects architect, tech lead, and developer through handoffs and feedback.
that’s what i want around GPT-6 Astra: clear roles, verification, and a path to fix failed work.
full breakdown below.
Could Compiled-Loops Be the Next Major Growth Area for Agentic Systems?
Loops:
A loop in AI is the repeated cycle through which a system observes what is happening, decides what to do, takes an action, sees the result, and then decides again. In simple terms: observe → decide → act → observe → repeat. This loop is what allows an AI system to adapt to changing conditions rather than simply follow a fixed sequence of instructions.
In-the-Loop:
When AI is in-the-loop, the model remains part of this live decision-making cycle. A trigger occurs, the model decides what should happen next, an action is taken, the result is returned to the model, and it decides again. This is the foundation of many agentic systems. It allows agents to reason through novel situations, choose tools, react to unexpected results and dynamically determine the path towards an outcome.
But there is a trade-off. Every time the model is asked what to do next, part of the execution path is being determined at runtime by a probabilistic system. That is useful when the problem is novel or ambiguous. It becomes less attractive when the correct process is already known, particularly for critical, regulated or high-volume operations where consistency, cost, latency, auditability and predictable outcomes matter.
Compiled-Loop:
This is where Compiled-Loops could become an important new category of agentic applications.
A Compiled-Loop changes the role of the model. AI can remain in-the-loop to discover, reason about, build and improve a process. But once that process is understood, tested and approved, it can be compiled into a governed, deterministic application. Instead of asking the model to rediscover how to execute the process every time, the known path becomes software.
The agent does not disappear. Its role changes.
An agent can monitor emails, documents, chats and other sources, extract and structure the required information, and pass it into the appropriate Compiled-Loop. The Compiled-Loop then performs the known operation predictably and at scale. The agent remains available around the edges, handling ambiguity, exceptions and genuinely novel situations that the compiled application was not designed to resolve.
Self Improving Compiled Loops:
Crucially, advancement comes through exceptions. When the Compiled-Loop encounters something outside its known operating envelope, the exception can be escalated back into the adaptive AI loop. The agent reasons through the new case, determines an appropriate response, and the outcome becomes new evidence about how the system should behave. Where that response proves repeatable, safe and useful, it can be tested, governed and incorporated into the next version of the Compiled-Loop.
Agent discovers → process is compiled → Compiled-Loop executes → exceptions emerge → agent resolves → Compiled-Loop improves.
Future of Agentic Applications:
Over time, successful agentic systems may therefore develop a growing library of Compiled-Loops. Instead of an agent reasoning from first principles through thousands or millions of repeated operations, it learns which governed applications to invoke and reserves expensive probabilistic reasoning for the cases that actually require intelligence.
This could be particularly important in banking, payments, healthcare, government, industrial systems and other environments where operations must be executed reliably at enormous scale.
The future of agentic systems may therefore not be about putting increasingly powerful models into every execution loop. It may be about determining when the model should be in the loop, and when a process has become sufficiently understood to earn its way out of it.
Learn in-the-loop. Run in compiled-loop. Govern everything.
@karpathy @DarioAmodei @bcherny
Avtar Sehra retweeted
"I now as an individual can become Tether or Circle. I've got an RWA, I plug it in, I hold onto my yield, and I spend and use the stablecoin."
Avtar Sehra, CEO of @stbl_official, and his case for Stablecoin 2.0 on the latest Solana is Global with @afscott:
Avtar Sehra retweeted
DeFi built the foundation. RWAs bring the scale.
The next phase of blockchain adoption will come from bringing trillions of dollars of real-world assets, institutional capital, and everyday financial activity onchain.
At @ETHSpain, STBL COO @stucturedfi will explore why RWAs represent Ethereum’s path from a crypto-native ecosystem to a global financial infrastructure layer.
From DeFi to Real Finance - Ethereum's Next Growth Wave will Come from RWAs.
Avtar Sehra retweeted
For my first post, I’m sharing a letter @NVIDIA signed on why open models matter.
AI will transform every industry, power every company, and be built by every country.
Open models strengthen safety and cybersecurity, accelerate innovation and diffusion, and enable sovereignty.
The world needs both frontier closed models and frontier open models.
images.nvidia.com/pdf/Open-W…
Avtar Sehra retweeted
What does it take for digital assets to move from a volatile asset class to institutional-grade financial infrastructure?
At Proof of Talk 2026, Paris, STBL Co-Founder and CEO @avtarsehra joined industry leaders to unpack exactly that - from the resilience of on-chain infrastructure to the accelerating institutional shift toward tokenization.
The industry's risk management and settlement infrastructure has proven itself, and that's why traditional institutions are now moving on-chain with conviction. Capital is flowing into real-world assets, tokenized equities, and compliant on-chain products - and the question is no longer whether to tokenize, but what to build with these assets on-chain.
This is the paradigm STBL is built for: infrastructure that effectively manages stability, yield, and risk, so institutions and ecosystems can put RWAs to work on rails designed for the next generation of finance.
Watch the full discussion: youtube.com/watch?v=hcHiqYvj…
Avtar Sehra retweeted
Stablecoins are evolving.
@stbl_official is building Stablecoin 2.0, separating payments from yield to power tokenized RWAs.
• Co-founded by Tether's Reeve Collins
• Partners: OKX Ventures & Securitize
The money layer for RWAs, on @Solana.
Avtar Sehra retweeted
11,549 wallets have already minted test $RXUSD on testnet - a strong signal of early momentum.
The response from the ecosystem has been incredible, with builders and users actively exploring what's next.
The Genesis Points Program is still open. Claim 100 Early Bird Points while a limited number of founding spots remain.
Register now at getrxusd.com/incentives#regi…



























