@baseballot

Managing editor @VotebeatUS. Previously senior editor and senior elections analyst @FiveThirtyEight. Email, don't DM: nrakich at votebeat dot org

 DC via Boston
baseballot.substack.com
Joined December 2011
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4KMedia
Confused by all the election forecasts and polling averages out there? I wrote a comprehensive guide to all of them.
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A cautionary tale for voters in postmark states who mail their absentee ballots on Election Day: kgw.com/article/news/politic…

We mailed 100 letters across Oregon. Only 14 were postmarked same day. Why that matters for your...

A KGW investigation found most letters were postmarked a day or two after mailing, raising questions about what could happen to ballots mailed on Election Day.

kgw.com
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If you have to mail your ballot on Election Day, take it to the desk inside the post office. They can give you a manual postmark.
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Nathaniel Rakich retweeted
Sasha Hupka@SashaHupka13h
NEW: Arizona's AG is suing MCRO over its handling of the registration statuses of 25 voters falsely flagged as noncitizens by SAVE earlier this year. The 11th-hour legal battle is the latest update in a saga that stretches back to the spring. Full story in the replies. ⤵️
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This is a very Florida election story. wfla.com/news/hillsborough-c…

Humidity caused Brandon couples mail-in ballots to seal before they could vote

When April Ling grabbed the mail-in ballot from her mailbox last week, she quickly realized something wasn’t right.

wfla.com
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Nathaniel Rakich retweeted
Natalie Jackson
@nataliemj10Oct 20
You know why I'm so mad about this? I've been a pollster for 20 years, but I'm under a new company name (my own). You people make it so much harder for REAL people like me to get traction when we do everything right. Shame on you.
This Post is from an account that no longer exists. Learn more
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Nathaniel Rakich retweeted
FiftyPlusOne.news
@50plus1newsOct 20
50+1 has caught another pollster faking data: blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/fif…

FiftyPlusOne just caught a pollster faking data — and they copped to it

In response to a request for comment on a FiftyPlusOne investigation, Wedgewood Polls admitted their data was bogus

blog.fiftyplusone.news
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Good overview of the Trump administration's escalation against alleged noncitizen voting in California: votebeat.org/national/2026/1…

Trump administration feud with California raises concerns president could try to intervene in the...

The Trump administration and California are locked in a feud over noncitizen voters, fueling fears the White House could try to intervene in the state’s process before or after Election Day.

votebeat.org
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Nathaniel Rakich retweeted
Philippe J. Fournier@338CanadaOct 20
🍁Alberta Voters Choose Canada 📊And most pollsters called it right. 338canada.ca/p/alberta-voter…

Alberta Voters Choose Canada

And most pollsters called it right.

338canada.ca
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Nathaniel Rakich retweeted
Adam McCalvy@AdamMcCalvyOct 20
Major League Baseball will have a brand-new World Series champion this year. Two of the five current franchises without a title — the Brewers and Rays — will meet in the Fall Classic. Game 1 is Friday night in Milwaukee.
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The Washington Sun
@washingtonsunOct 20
A federal judge ruled that North Carolina’s rigid new mail-in ballot policies will remain in place for the midterms, upholding a last-minute rule change that could make it easier for state officials to invalidate thousands of votes in November. washingtonsun.com/legal/judg…

Judge Rules that North Carolina’s Mail-In Ballot Restrictions Will Remain Through the Midterms

The state’s election board made it easier to reject completed ballots in an eleventh-hour change last month.

washingtonsun.com
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Nathaniel Rakich retweeted
Éric Grenier@EricGrenierTWOct 19
It's referendum day in Alberta! Here's my last look at the polls, what to watch when the results come in and what the numbers could mean for Danielle Smith's UCP. thewrit.ca/p/polls-point-to-…

Polls point to landslide win for Remain side in Alberta referendum

But will it be a two-to-one or three-to-one win?

thewrit.ca
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Nathaniel Rakich retweeted
Jessica Huseman@JessicaHusemanOct 16
We're 17 days out. Are you a reporter worried you don't have the sourcing to answer highly technical voting questions? Let @VotebeatUS give you ours FOR FREE. 125 experts on cybersecurity, law, extremism, election administration and more are waiting. electionexpertdesk.com

Election Expert Desk - Votebeat Election Expert Desk

Election stories move fast. Election law is technical. Local procedures vary widely. And the loudest voices about voting systems are not always the people who understand them. Votebeat’s Expert Desk...

electionexpertdesk.org
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Nathaniel Rakich retweeted
Andrew Arenge@MrArengeOct 18
Important piece from @marctrussler detailing how shifting who is a "likely voter" in a poll can dramatically change the topline estimate of how Democrats or Republicans will do in the upcoming midterm elections nbcnews.com/politics/2026-el…
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Always appreciate this resource from Greg each cycle!
Greg Giroux@greggirouxOct 18
More than 100 candidate debates/forums on my board docs.google.com/spreadsheets… Let me know of more

Select 2026 General Election Candidate Debates/Forums (prepared by Greg Giroux @greggiroux)

docs.google.com
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Nathaniel Rakich retweeted
Grace Panetta
@grace_panettaOct 18
Political candidate DUI crash in front of a Stop and Shop is the most Massachusetts crime ever
Sam Stein
@samsteinOct 18
Lt. Gov candidate in Massachusetts was arrested for on an OUI this morning after crashing into several vehicles. It appears the crash happened in front of Stop and Shop with his black SUV ending up upside down. He "walked away from the jail in a plain white T-shirt with his belongings in a plastic bag." newbedfordlight.org/lt-gov-c…

Lt. Gov. candidate Shawn Oliver arrested on OUI charge - The New Bedford Light

The city councilor was released on bail Sunday morning from the Ash Street Jail.

newbedfordlight.org
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The correct reaction.
progupdates@progupdatesOct 16
AOC tries Culver's for the first time in Michigan: "My life has changed"
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Remember the Hamtramck, MI, mayoral race last year, when 37 mishandled ballots weren't counted? Earlier this year, courts decided they should be counted, which they just were—and it flipped the winner.
Hayley Harding@Hayley__HardingOct 16
Unofficial results: Alharbi: 2,077 Mahmood: 2,089
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So basically, Adam Alharbi has spent a year as mayor of Hamtramck, MI, when all along it should have been Muhith Mahmood. Wild story.
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votebeat.org/michigan/2026/1…

Mayoral election result overturned almost 10 months into new mayor’s term

A Detroit suburb’s 2025 mayoral election was decided by just 11 votes. Now that 37 disputed ballots have been counted, the outcome has been reversed.

votebeat.org
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Lasted only half a Scaramucci!
Kyle Griffin
@kylegriffin1Oct 16
BREAKING NYT: Trump's new press secretary, Katie Zacharia, was fired Friday, after less than a week on the job, according to three people familiar with the matter. nytimes.com/2026/10/16/us/po…

Katie Zacharia, Trump’s New Press Secretary, Is Ousted After 5 Days

Her abrupt departure came after she was shadowed by questions about how she had presented her legal career and handled her first press briefing.

nytimes.com
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