Ben Eskew

There is now no excuse! It’s time for Georgia Republicans to call a special session. I’ve been calling for Georgia to redraw its congressional map since Texas started redrawing theirs.

My forecast for the Georgia House and Senate elections.

I really don’t think people understand how strong a candidate @DolezalForGA really is. He outran Trump in 2024 by nearly the same margin as moderate Republicans in Buckhead, in what is a very MAGA friendly district. He also did very well in the Suburbs in the Republican primary, all while actively appealing to Trump’s core base as well as running an amazing campaign. Lean R at minimum.

Keisha has trouble with the very voters that Democrats have been making gains with in Georgia. Here is a prime example in Buckhead near the Governor’s Mansion. City of Atlanta President 08F1 2012 🔴 Romney +56.2 2016 🔴 Trump +16.9 2020 🔴 Trump +3.5 2022 Gov 🔴 Kemp +31.1 2024 🔴 Trump +3.5 2017 Mayor Norwood +90 🤯 This precinct experienced all of Keisha’s problems firsthand. It is a classic ‘Country Club Republican’ precinct, it is fiscally conservative but socially liberal. Keisha couldn’t even get 5% here against Mary Norwood, who was framed during the entire campaign as being a Republican and has now endorsed Rick Jackson. If there is any place in the state of Georgia where he will outperform Trump it’s here. Not because left leaning moderates like Rick Jackson, but of fear of if Keisha wins as they already know her record as Mayor and overwhelmingly rejected her. I doubt Kemp with 70% approval rating could win here by over 35 if he wasn’t term limited against a normal Democrat because many of these voters are extremely liberal on social issues.

In my opinion, Rick Jackson is on track for about a 2.2 percent victory, almost identical to President Trump’s. However, the shift map and coalitions, according to my calculations, look different. Jackson does better in the wealthy Suburbs compared to Trump, but does worse in rural areas due to turnout issues in minority areas. Below is the statewide and precinct estimates, and shift maps for the Northern Atlanta suburbs between Trump’s victory 2 years ago, and Governor Kemp’s 7.5 percent win 4 year ago.

Many people are talking about massive ticket splitting in Georgia. I think North Fulton is going to be a prime example of this. I currently have an approximately 20 point ticket split between the United States Senate election, and Fulton County Commission District 1 due to candidate issues. While Mike Collins fires up the MAGA vote in rural Georgia, his blue collar roots do not do well here. Meanwhile, the popular Republican County commissioner here, is focused locally with broad support from MAGA Republicans, suburban moderates, and even some Democrats. She seems on track to hold on, because her opponent is extremely far to the left, inexperienced, and has multiple personal issues. Because of this, the DEM candidate is not right the job according to many in her own party.

Missed the Trump Rally today to sign wave for a very important candidate, Fulton County Commissioner Bridget Thorne. Every moment counts in helping her achieve victory on November 3rd!

The Arizona Governor’s race is very winnable for Republicans, as I have been saying for months. The state is much redder than it was in 2022. Hobbs is an F tier candidate who is very controversial. Biggs outran Trump when he won the state by 5.5 points. If the polls were as much as they were in 2022 (which I remain more skeptical about than 2020 because of the conflict of interest Hobbs had in that election), Biggs would be the favorite here.