Jacob

I think the bookies have priced one game up completely wrong tonight... It's Mainz vs Hoffenheim over in the Bundesliga. Here's what I've found.👇 What I noticed first of all is that Mainz have been priced up as the favourites, that doesn't seem right to me. For context, Hoffenheim are the joint-best away team in the league, holding the same record as Bayern, and are unbeaten on their travels. They're also in good form overall, winning four on the bounce heading into this. Meanwhile, Mainz are without a win in six league games, sit in the relegation zone, and are conveniently also the worst home side in the league. Hoffenheim's goals scored numbers away read: 2, 4, 1, 3, 3 whilst Mainz are yet to keep a clean sheet this season and have failed to score in three of their five home games. Another interestingly priced market is Hoffenheim Shots on Target. They sit 4th in the league for SOT, and they've managed 4+ in all but one game this season, and that was against Bayern. Mainz are comfortably bottom of the table for SOT, and have also faced at least three in all but one of their games. Mainz are priced as favs to have the most SOT in the match, while Hoffenheim are also priced quite well to take 3+ or 4+. The final angle I like is cards and fouls. Hoffenheim sit top of the league for fouls committed, whilst Mainz are 3rd for cards received. With the prices on offer, there's plenty of attractive bets you could put together here. 👉 I'm backing a treble of Hoffenheim Double Chance, 3+ Hoffenheim Shots on Target, and both teams to receive a card. The treble pays just over evens, and is a nice chance to bank some profit ahead of the weekend. You could easily put something bigger together using my notes if you fancied though. 👊 18+ Gamble Responsibly.