@cd_hooks
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Journalist. Let me explain something to you, Walsh. This business requires a certain amount of finesse. [email protected]
NYC/Austin
Joined August 2011
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Christopher Hooks retweeted
Day six: total rural weekend collapse. (Tomorrow, most counties have reduced hours / comparisons'll be iffy.)
Look, this is happening nationwide. I'm not Nostradamus and can't hit 100% on calls. But if rurals do this nationwide thru 11/3, Ds will run the table nationwide.
Christopher Hooks retweeted
The part rarely spoken aloud: Immigrants made our lives a lot cheaper.
Trump’s immigration crackdown disrupts U.S. food supply, agriculture leaders say

Recent ICE raids have rocked rural America, delaying meat shipments in Kansas, threatening poultry production in PA and affecting farmworkers in CA, industry leaders say.
washingtonpost.com/politics/…
I’m more qualified than 99% of “journalists” and pundits to make predictions about Texas politics. I’ve worked on a winning US House race in Texas (Jasmine Crockett) and was head of fundraising on a US Senate race there as well. @cd_hooks needs to issue a correction
Barker has no connection to Texas that I know of and no expertise with which to make statements like this. Republican elected officials in Texas are openly alarmed about rural turnout
Why Talarico Is Losing Texas in the Home Stretch
Former Democratic Political Strategist Evan Barker believes Democrats have neglected rural Texans in the midterm elections, and are underestimating their distaste for a candidate like James Talarico. Barker shares her findings on Democratic advertising in rural areas and how it will impact voter turnout.
ah yes, “conspiratorial” concerns about “corruption” in “Washington.” a place that might not even exist
Christopher Hooks retweeted
With the latest early voting drops in Texas here are the lowest turnout counties (many are deep red).
Knox
Parmer
Dallam
Lynn
Falls
Frio
Maverick
Jones
Lamb
Ector
Throckmorton
Dimmit
Castro
Martin
Zapata
Crosby
Brooks
Ochiltree
Bailey
Jim Hogg
Christopher Hooks retweeted
This piece on the massive shift of young voters back to Democrats (or against Republicans) has a quote from a 23-year-old Latino guy who voted for Trump in 2024 that captures how so many young voters feel right now: "I just don't know what I was thinking."
nytimes.com/2026/10/22/upsho…
Christopher Hooks retweeted
Day 5 turnout graphs! Seems like the trend of the electorate getting whiter and more republican in these big 5 counties has stalled, just like it did in 2024. Now we wait and see if Week 2 brings backloading from non white voters as it did in 2024.
Christopher Hooks retweeted
Just a few years ago, Tarrant was deep red. They actually may go blue this year- and could be what decides the entire state.
These people live in a state that usually votes 40-45% Democrat and have never had to accept that those neighbors are full human beings. It’s going to be a difficult period of adjustment.
unavailable
More than 350,000 people voted for Abbott and Beto O’Rourke in 2018. Sorry I'm trying to only do this tweet once a week
Rural R turnout seems to be way down in TX. Here’s a piece exploring why that may be texastribune.org/2026/10/23/…
Christopher Hooks retweeted
If history is a guide (not a guarantee of future results), yesterday should have been Republicans best day; today should also be good for them.
Dems should have a good weekend. Back to Rs for 2 days, then Dems and GE-only folks pour it on Wednesday/Thursday/Friday.
Past Republican primary voters have taken the lead in early in-person voting: 990,273 to 985,681 for past Democratic primary voters, through Thursday.
Voters with no primary history have grown every day: 22.4% of in-person voters on day 1, then 25.8%, 29.4% and 32.4% on day 4.
On day 4, they outnumbered past Democratic primary voters (30.2%) and were 2.1 points behind past Republican primary voters (34.5%).
Christopher Hooks retweeted
👇 bankrupt this state, poseidon
First Street’s climate risk scores on Zillow, Redfin & Realtor.com are presented as accurate and scientific. They’re not.
We are taking them to court because Florida homeowners deserve facts, not alarmist scores that hit their property values and their wallets.
It’s a bad sign for what comes next to that TX Republicans don’t say, “we’ll have to win the next election.” They say this
With his political future on the line, Gov. Greg Abbott issued his darkest prediction yet for what could happen if Republican voters don’t start showing up in bigger numbers at the polls. bit.ly/4iDfqIZ
Christopher Hooks retweeted
Past Republican primary voters have taken the lead in early in-person voting: 990,273 to 985,681 for past Democratic primary voters, through Thursday.
Voters with no primary history have grown every day: 22.4% of in-person voters on day 1, then 25.8%, 29.4% and 32.4% on day 4.
On day 4, they outnumbered past Democratic primary voters (30.2%) and were 2.1 points behind past Republican primary voters (34.5%).
Christopher Hooks retweeted
TX IPEV DAY 4:
Nothing that is too surprising here yesterday.
The turnout-based shift shrinks by about another point or two as Democratic enthusiasm is tapering slightly - GOP turnout has been pretty stable each day. D+10 turnout shift in 16 tracked counties, combined with extra rurals, means roughly Trump +6.5 or so.
The Dunkel-Maga (Hardin, Randall, NW Tarrant, outer Montgomery) is still lagging. I know Montgomery is going to be lengthening hours so they will have more hours soon.
Tarrant Dems have seen each day's electorate get steadily less Democratic. Collin/Denton are redshifting where they blueshifted in 2024.
With respect to the remaining vote, Dems have burned through a lot of high prop voters, which means that the remaining high-prop voters will tend to skew R. But - 2/3 and 1/3 voters could have selective turnout effects, this remains to be seen.
On the question of non-voters, these continue to be younger, more nonwhite. The second week will be dominated by these, many of whom are expected to lean blue.
Once EV is done we can make determinations on recall and how election day will likely go.
For next week I will have more added to the tracker on the nonvoter composition. Space tonight in 3 hours.
claude.ai/artifact/QSaAiFYUj…
