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Trippi: Republicans Need to Win Back 26 of 31 Points. Here’s the Problem.
Cliff and David open with Fox now projecting Democrats take the House, then bring in Joe Trippi—manager of Howard Dean’s 2004 campaign, strategist behind Doug Jones’ 2017 AL win, and veteran of 9 presidential races—to ask how big the wave gets.
Trippi’s answer: “a wipeout as long as we do our job and get out the vote.” He walks thru early-vote data (Dems and independents voting at higher rates than ‘22, Latino early turnout 54% above the ‘24 presidential pace), explains why a TX redistricting map built on Trump’s ‘24 numbers with Latinos and independents is “collapsing around them.” Says the election resembles 1980 not 1994 when Democrats awoke to a 12-seat Senate wipeout nobody saw coming.
The second half is the math. Trippi lays out the poll question that explains the midterm—45% of voters say they're turning out to vote against Trump, 24% for him, 31% say he's not a factor—and shows why a Republican incumbent must win 26 of those 31 points to hit 50."
api.omarshehata.me/substack-… #BlueWaveIn10Days #VoteBlue2026
Cliff Schecter retweeted
Read the quoted part below to yourself in Trump's voice. Change "radical zionists" to "radical jihadists." Tell me you couldn't 100% hear this coming from Trump.
Then decide what that says about this union-busting, Armenian-genocide-denying (til 2018?) pile of Eccrine Glands in an oversized meat suit.
"Everyone online loves the ad, it’s gotten millions of views and wonderful accolades. Radical [jihadists] are the only ones objecting."
Read the quoted part below to yourself in Trump's voice. Change "radical zionists" to "radical jihadists." Tell me you couldn't 100% hear this coming from Trump.
Then decide what that says about this union-busting, Armenian-genocide-denying (til 2018?) pile of Eccrine Glands in an oversized meat suit.
"Everyone online loves the ad, it’s gotten millions of views and wonderful accolades. Radical [jihadists] are the only ones objecting."
David Shuster counts down the 5 best AI political satire videos of the week, and the week handed him plenty..
Kimberly Guilfoyle gets the musical treatment for her American Express account donor plan, while Trump’s supposed Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire becomes a conference call that goes way off script.
Then there’s Trump’s treason-diesel—and the musical response it inspires. I won’t spoil the top 2: David saves them for the end. Watch, pick your faves, keep laughing!
blueamp.co/p/shusters-top-5-… #Ohio #VoteBlue2026
Cliff Schecter retweeted
MUSK AND TRUMP BETRAY AMERICA
Trump declared an ‘energy ceasefire’..Ukraine honored it. Russian missiles kept hitting Kyiv. Ukraine only got betrayal: early-warning intel on ballistic missile attacks, Starshield, Russian Diesel sanctions: gone.
There's nothing conservative about this, Just more Trump 2, Oval Office fuckery. Good job throwing in w this, Thune.
Cliff, Olga Lautman, & Jacob Kaarsbo rip it apart from both sides of the Atlantic. Kaarsbo, former Danish intel, says Europe's rationing what they share with DC, b/c of Trump's "treason against democracy."
Lautman turns to suspected Russian drone strikes sinking commercial ships in the Black Sea—in NATO waters. An Act Of War…
api.omarshehata.me/substack-… #SundayMorning #AirForceOneBARBIE #VoteBlue2026 #VoteBlueToSaveAmerica
Cliff Schecter retweeted
At a recent event where I spoke at a community center, a group of “pro-Palestine” militiamen appeared outside to protest and disrupt the event, along with agitated older white women who entered the venue to do the same on the inside. The organizers and I had arranged extensive security because these same “activists” had spent days trying to get the event canceled and openly vowed to do whatever they could to stop it from happening. As I walked in, a few masked “activists” in keffiyehs whispered, "is this the genocide guy?" I turned to them and said, "hi gentlemen, thanks for coming." One replied, "Free Palestine." I responded, "I agree, including from Hamas."
Once I began speaking, several disruptors engaged in a steady stream of whispering, side conversations, eye-rolling, posturing, and juvenile antics. I stopped and asked one of the women why she and her comrades were behaving like children. She admitted she knew nothing about me or my work but felt qualified to declare that if I were truly Palestinian, my Nakba-surviving grandparents would be rolling in their graves. I asked the agitators to be respectful, explaining that while security could remove them, I would rather they listen to what I actually had to say, instead of relying on misinformation spread about me by the local DSA, BDS, and other "pro-Palestine" groups.
What enraged me most was their reaction when I spoke about my family in Gaza, the relatives we have lost to Israeli airstrikes during the post-October 7 war, and the destruction of both my childhood homes. These white “activists” laughed and smirked as I described some of the most painful experiences of my life and the sense of personal loss that inspires my work. They showed shocking indifference toward the very Palestinians on whose behalf they claim to be acting.
I confronted some of the disruptors directly and asked why they get to define what it means to be "pro-Palestine," despite knowing nothing about me and showing no interest in the trauma my family has endured. Some stormed out shouting "Free Palestine." Others fell silent. One person, despite strongly disagreeing with me, acknowledged that my views were rooted in personal loss and genuine concern for my people and shook my hand before leaving.
On my way out, a pseudo-journalist known for glorifying Hamas and "the resistance" tried to ambush me with questions about whether I was paid by weapons manufacturers, oil companies, or, as he brilliantly misstated it, the "Arab Union Emirates." It struck me how absurd it is that I needed three heavily armed security officers and a bodyguard simply to speak about healing and reconciliation between Palestinians and Israelis, the dangers of extremism for both societies, the catastrophic damage Hamas has inflicted on the Palestinian national project, and the right of Palestinians to freedom, safety, and prosperity alongside a secure Israel.
🤖 Made with AI
MUSK AND TRUMP BETRAY AMERICA
Trump declared an ‘energy ceasefire’..Ukraine honored it. Russian missiles kept hitting Kyiv. Ukraine only got betrayal: early-warning intel on ballistic missile attacks, Starshield, Russian Diesel sanctions: gone.
There's nothing conservative about this, Just more Trump 2, Oval Office fuckery. Good job throwing in w this, Thune.
Cliff, Olga Lautman, & Jacob Kaarsbo rip it apart from both sides of the Atlantic. Kaarsbo, former Danish intel, says Europe's rationing what they share with DC, b/c of Trump's "treason against democracy."
Lautman turns to suspected Russian drone strikes sinking commercial ships in the Black Sea—in NATO waters. An Act Of War…
api.omarshehata.me/substack-… #SundayMorning #AirForceOneBARBIE #VoteBlue2026 #VoteBlueToSaveAmerica
So Dems are crushing, but we still may not get what we’re praying from the midterms after all the crazy?
Arrgh, yes. On one hand, this week:
* Structural indicators hit new lows for Trump, and new highs for Dems.
* Dems have a huge money advantage in state lege races, possibly as much as 4x more than the GOP.
* Gubernatorial races continue to look good
* The Cook Political Report now counts 220 US House seats as at least “Lean” Dem, 17 more as toss-ups.
The “chalk” result gives Dems a majority and puts them on the edge of a win big enough to withstsand factional infighting. Why the hedging headline? On the other hand, the Senate situation rests on a knife’s edge...
api.omarshehata.me/substack-… #Ohio #BlueWaveIn10Days #VoteBlueToSaveAmerica #VoteBlue2026
Cliff Schecter retweeted
Did Epstein Help Trump Win the 2016 Election?
youtube.com/watch?v=0NJ1jp0U… #VoteEarlyOnNoKings
Neera Angie Nixon Bernie Sam Seder White House Trump and Musk AIPAC
Cliff Schecter retweeted
Trump and Putin’s Plan to Carve Up Ukraine
youtube.com/watch?v=Fh_gROpt… #TrumpsCrimesOnYourDime #VoteBlueToSaveAmerica #VoteBlue2026
Todd Blanche South Carolina Kiev New Hampshire Cenk
Cliff Schecter retweeted
Trump and Putin’s Plan to Carve Up Ukraine xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1Oxwbnrvp…
Cliff Schecter retweeted
The idea that Gaza was one of the biggest FP issues for America just goes to show how the focus on Israel/ Palestine has broken the left. Gaza wasn't the biggest issue in the MIDDLE EAST: that would be the Syrian civil war. Gaza pales in comparison to Ukraine as well
Cliff Schecter retweeted
Cliff’s right:
ranked-choice exists in Alaska, Maine, and a handful of cities, not Texas, not most of the country.
And “we’ve never tried this”?
Ross Perot, 1992, Texas billionaire with charts for days, got 19% of the popular vote and zero electoral votes.
Spoiled just enough to help elect Clinton while the two major parties kept right on governing.
Same math, different decade.
Voting independent in a first-past-the-post system isn’t a noble middle path. It’s usually a spoiler that lets the worse major-party option win while you get to feel superior about not picking a side.
Power still gets exercised. Someone still wins. The “none of the above and no consequences” box doesn’t exist on the ballot.
Matthew wants a permanent check that forces both parties toward the middle?
Cool. Here’s what actually moves the needle in Texas over the long run instead of another Perot rerun:
Build real infrastructure inside the parties that already have ballot access and organization.
Recruit, fund, and primary better candidates in both parties, especially the Democratic ones who can compete in purple and light-red areas.
Special elections and suburban shifts already show independents and soft Republicans will cross over when the alternative is competent and not cartoonishly extreme.
Organize for structural reforms that make third options viable. Ranked-choice voting, open primaries, and fairer ballot access rules.
That’s the actual mechanism that lets people rank preferences without the spoiler effect. Push it at the city and county level first, then state.
Do the unsexy local and state work. School boards, city councils, state House and Senate seats, judicial races. Texas turns on turnout and organization at those levels more than any celebrity video about “the original road.”
Long-term change happens when you change who draws the maps, writes the education and healthcare budgets, and sets the rules.
Focus energy on the issues with broad Texas appeal that force accountability: public education funding, power grid reliability, reproductive rights, property taxes, healthcare access. Build coalitions around those instead of abstract independence branding.
If he really wants to be the check, use the platform and resources to support competitive candidates who can win under the current rules, or run himself under a major party banner where the infrastructure already exists.
Playing independent in Texas right now is mostly a branding exercise that leaves the actual power structure untouched.
If you think the two parties suck plenty. Pretending opting out of them is a higher form of citizenship just lets the people who show up with a side keep deciding everything.
Texas improves when more people engage the system that exists and force it to change, not when they cosplay as “above the fight.”
Replying to @WelchRobII @McConaughey
God, I so wanna like this guy, luv most of his flicks. There are even 1-2 things he gets right--in sea of bullshit.
Can someone please explain our system to him--only AK, ME, some cities have ranked choice. Also the "we never tried this before." Was he alive in the 90s? A guy from TEXAS--l'il guy, billionaire, loved charts..maybe betw car ads Matty can read about it.
Cliff Schecter retweeted
Vivek Ramaswamy's campaign is crashing around him. His billions can't buy him integrity.
Trump and Putin’s Plan to Carve Up Ukraine
youtube.com/watch?v=Fh_gROpt… #TrumpsCrimesOnYourDime #VoteBlueToSaveAmerica #VoteBlue2026
Todd Blanche South Carolina Kiev New Hampshire Cenk
Trump and Putin’s Plan to Carve Up Ukraine xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1Oxwbnrvp…















