Pat Really

Could the Philippine stock market have a Christmas rally? It looks possible. The latest GDP number was weak — the economy only grew 2.1% in the third quarter of 2026. That’s the slowest growth since the pandemic years. Because growth is so soft, there’s a chance the central bank (BSP) might pause rate hikes or even surprise with a cut. Right now the policy rate is at 5.50%. Other positive signs: The minimum wage in Metro Manila was raised to ₱755 a day (from ₱695) starting late September. That gives workers more spending money heading into the holidays. Overseas Filipino remittances usually jump toward year-end. Even though growth has been modest (around 2% lately), the seasonal Christmas boost is still expected. Banks look stable. Bad loans (NPL ratio) fell to a 9-month low of 3.27% in September, while total loans hit a record ₱18.1 trillion. Next year’s company earnings should look better because this year’s numbers were weak (easier comparison). The main drag has been the strong US dollar. The peso recently hit near ₱64 but has since strengthened to around ₱62.91 as oil prices dropped (Brent crude near $91). If oil and US yields keep falling, the dollar should soften further — that would help the peso and stocks. The PSEi closed at 5,716 on November 10. December has historically been one of the stronger months for the market because of year-end buying and holiday spending. These factors could support a Christmas rally, though it still depends on oil prices, the peso, and what the BSP does in December. (Just connecting the dots — not financial advice.)