So my last post almost had 0 engagement as I have been inactive for years on here at this point... time flies wow.
If I Giveaway 500 USDT to a random person that likes and retweets this post and draw the winner in 6 hours, will engagement be better? 😅Let's test it—drop a like + RT if you're in!
Amir retweeted
$2B liquidated in 24 hours.
That’s a record.
More than the Covid dump. More than the FTX collapse.
Epic.
Amir retweeted
#BITCOIN NEW ALL-TIME HIGH BABY HERE WE GO 🚀🚀🚀
Amir retweeted
If you had to describe a perfect bull run set up
It would be record amounts of money in money markets as the USD is losing value and rates are about to drop AND Bitcoin being accepted for the first time in boomer investing.
That’s what we are looking at right now.
Amir retweeted
This mastermind also included a full breakdown of:
• Iman Ghadzi's Strategy
• Alex Hormozi's Strategy
• Andrew Tate's Strategy
Want the complete 1h30 masterclass?
Like and Retweet the post below.
(I will DM it to you FREE)
nitter.gq/IAmAndrewKirby/status/…
Amir retweeted
Part of the reason there’s so much disagreement regarding where we are cyclically is because returns have been so unevenly distributed
Additionally, a lot of previous cycle signposts have been absent and/or entirely invalid
1. The conventional ‘risk curve’ trade of BTC —> ETH —> large caps —> mid caps —> shitters has been unprofitable. Barbell portfolio of BTC + memes has dominated.
2. ETH/BTC has been remarkably weak, whereas historically it has benefitted from a risk on environment. This has also spilled over into ETH L1+L2 proxy trades being suboptimal. ‘Crypto as a casino’ thesis has been captured by memecoins on SOL (vs previous cycle’s casino was NFTs on ETH).
3. Memecoins have been consistently leading and rotating from that sector has been costly, whereas memes pumping has historically been an indicator of being late in the cycle.
4. BTC hasn’t offered a series of previously ‘standard’ bull market pullbacks of 30-40%. This has created a bunch of early sellers/sidelined traders. Also led to proliferation of left-truncated cycle discourse, shorter cycle, super cycle, and other heterodox variants.
5. There are so many new tokens (amplified by memecoins) that “crypto bull market” no longer means “everything that’s listed goes up for weeks/months” - the rising tide has not lifted all boats and there are very clear winners vs losers (and they’ve broadly stayed the same, no massive rotations e.g. ETH eco/L1+L2 trade been weak relative to SOL for ages, with exceptions).
Taking all this into account, it’s entirely plausible that you have Trader A who rode BTC, SOL, and memes and feels like stuff is hot and needs to cool off, whereas Trader B has barely made any money and feels like stuff hasn’t even picked up yet, and everything in between.
We all have different portfolios, trading styles, time horizons, risk appetite, volatility tolerance, and a bunch of other stuff.
Most of crypto Twitter thinks crypto will go up and to the right over time, we just disagree about the fine print.
Be kind, chill out 🫡
Amir retweeted
Read carefully, also notice the time of the tweet.
Amir retweeted
As the legacy (current) financial system continues to collapse re: bank failures, seizures, inflation, etc. having and protecting wealth will become increasingly dubious. People will fly to assets (RE, stocks, crypto) but they will try to tax you out of your ownership. They will also try to seize your Crypto any way they can with every legal and even physical tool at their disposal. Living in the United States has never been more financially uncertain than today. These are the last gasps of a dying empire, and they will do whatever they can to survive. Your rights, the constitution, when pressured, mean nothing to those who want to preserve power.
Be mindful. Be mobile. Protect yourself and your assets. Stay safe. There's no going back.
Amir retweeted
Black Rock knows their ETF has super pumped bitcoin.
The 9000 IQ move is to short it, use their influence to get it rejected to cause a turbo turbo dump synced with the S&P , then buy it all up.
Then file again knowing no one will buy this time. Then turbo send from lows.
🤷♂️
Amir retweeted
The most feared macro event, the yield curve inversion pivot, continues to look in full effect.
So far, #Bitcoin remains unaffected and the Stock Market has taken a slight downturn.
It's now or never for the recession predictions.
This is one of the most accurate recession predictors out there.
Again, there is no guarantee of a 2000s dot-com bubble crash, 2008 housing market crash, or even a recession at all.
1990 had a pretty soft landing and 1998 did not have an official recession.
The yield curve inversion happens when 2-year treasury yields are outpacing 10-year treasury yields.
This means that investors are flocking to longer-term yields as they grow uncertain about the short-term.
The metric on the bottom "inverts" below the 0 line.
The pivot is when things start to return to normal and long-term yields outpace short-term. This is typically when the damage kicks in. The metric then goes back over the 0 line once complete.
Still observing, the yield curve has almost reached un-inversion at the 0 line.
Amir retweeted
#BITCOIN MACRO CHART
TL;DR:
Phase 1 of the Bull Market (Intro) ended when we lost the Support Trendline in August.
Correction for the next couple of months (transition) before we kick off Phase 2 (Bull Run)
🏁 Bull Market Top: $100-130k
77° -> 59° -> 49° -> 37° -> 27°
2009-2011 Bull Market had a very steep uptrend from bottom to top (77° angle). The following cycle was less steep and so on.
_
Over the past 13 years #Bitcoin had the same Bull Market Pattern repeat. Let me introduce my #BTC Bull Market Model which consists of 2 Phases:
[ Once the price finds the bottom, we see a swift recovery / dead cat bounce / echo bubble / whatever ABOVE the Support Trendline. That’s Phase 1 (Introduction to the $BTC Bull Market)
Then we see a correction to that Phase 1 as we break BELOW the Support Trendline (I call it Transition)
The correction ends and we kick off the Phase 2 (Bull Run) which develops BELOW the Trendline and tests it from below only at the Top of the Bull Market. ]
So what about the Bull Market Top?
- 2013 Bull Market topped out right at the 2.272 Fib extension from the 2011 Top to bear market Bottom.
- 2017 Bull Market Top - same 2.272 Fib extension from the 2013 Top to Bottom.
- 2021 Bull Market Top - 1.618 Fib extension from the 2017 Top to bottom.
📌 Returns diminish as the asset becomes heavier, it’s hard to deny that.
💡 I think this cycle #BTC will top out in 2025 somewhere between 1.272 & .1.414 Fib extension from the 2021 Top to Bottom
Amir retweeted
BitVM: The 24 hour update.
After thousands of Twitter posts and hours of spaces and discussions, we know much more about BitVM than we did yesterday. Here’s a quick update:
Excitement
1. BitVM is a new computing paradigm that leverages the universal gate NAND (along with other gates) within Taproot leaves with pre-signed transactions in optimistic rollup prover/verifier/challenger fashion to theoretically enable any computation on Bitcoin itself. I say “theoretically” because there are many caveats right now.
If this doesn’t make sense to you, search how you can build an entire computer with just NAND gates. Now do it using Bitcoin Script, and that’s BitVM in a nutshell.
2. The best way to think about BitVM is like a very early *limited* version of the EVM, meaning you can think about it like a limited smart contract platform directly on Bitcoin. No additional trust assumptions. No points of centralization. This is essentially a hybrid paradigm that mixes direct Bitcoin script smart contracts and an L2 like the Lightning Network.
3. BitVM is an amazing breakthrough because while there are many gaping holes right now in the BitVM, they are mostly solvable. Over the next few months I expect many of these holes to get filled in, at which point we will have more capable Bitcoin script without a Bitcoin upgrade.
4. This is a new paradigm of computing on Bitcoin that will likely never go away. With every new BIP, you will now have to interpret the proposed Bitcoin upgrade in the presence of BitVM. This future is very exciting.
Challenges
5. BitVM is in its VERY early stages. In the EVM you have the full power of Solidity. In the BitVM we have a single function that can check whether a string is all 0’s or not. That’s it. A single function (h/t Super Testnet!). Obviously many brilliant devs are working on additional functionality, but for now, we basically just have a white paper and a single function.
6. When you build a virtual machine using NAND gates (or even using more optimized gates leveraging other op_codes) you end up with massive data requirements. Potentially hundreds of MB for a reasonably complex program. Billions of taptree leaves. This can come down over time as things get optimized, but currently this is very large.
7. There is currently a two party limitation. There are many discussions right now about how to allow for 1 to N or N to N setups - like literally right now in a Telegram chat brilliant people are talking about a new mechanism that starts as regular federated but transitions to single-honest-party federation over time (h/t Super Testnet). So this has not been solved yet, but it seems there are some interesting paths forward.
8. Because of these limitations, it is still worth considering improvements to Bitcoin itself. The BitVM would be dramatically improved with an additional op_code (e.g., BIP-119). So BitVM doesn’t mean we can just sit back and wait for brilliant wizard devs to solve programmability on Bitcoin. It is likely that we’ll still need a Bitcoin upgrade to get to where we want to go. (this point is controversial, but a Bitcoin upgrade would definitely improve BitVM)
Bob's Take
The thing that I am most excited about is being able to implement a ZK verifier in the BitVM. We still don’t know how, where, when, or if this will happen, but if you could implement a ZK verifier in the BitVM then you would unlock the full power of L2s directly on Bitcoin. Trustless bridging, more throughput, more privacy, cheaper transactions, unlimited programmability, more scale, etc.
And all without a Bitcoin upgrade!
(technically this is unlikely to happen without a Bitcoin upgrade, but at least there is a chance…).
Amir retweeted
The spread on the 3 mo. and 10 yr. Treasury yields is trending towards un-inversion.
Remember un-inversion of the yield curve is when recession risk tends to be the highest.
Some recessions back in the 1970s/80s started before the yield curve un-inverted (also high inflation)
Amir retweeted
If march 13 was an anomaly.
Explain august 2015 to me then.
Explain similar but failed attempt in february 2012 to me then.
It’s more of a rule than an anomaly when it comes to cycles that a double bottom is probable.
Whether you like it or not
Amir retweeted
If you’re learning to trade rn you’re likely to get fucked in the bull market.
You’re in a phase of the market where you’re going to get trapped continuously and when the bull does hit you’ll be stuck trying to take nonsense trades while everything flies
But im just a wassie































