dasv

what you wanted: > curing cancer > 1 person $1b companies > productivity acceleration what you get: > all your software broken in prod > non stop cyber theft > aircraft cannot fly > "Chinese threat" Neo McCarthyism > brains too fried to even watch NFLX > surveillance state

Microsoft giving us an early glimpse into how the future web is going to look when all the engineers are fired and replaced with AI and there's nobody left with the technical knowledge to untangle whatever it is they've fucked up.

Argentina is officially in recession. The free market dream is over. Under Milei: - 32,300 businesses closed - Industry, construction & retail wiped out - Only growth sectors are financial speculation & sale of natural resources - 1/3 people in poverty lareforma.com.ar/Recesion-te…

The Economist: "AI needs around $3t in revenue by 2030 for the planned data-centre buildout to offer a conventional rate of return...To put that number into perspective, all compensation for all workers—wages, plus perks like health insurance—adds up to around $16.5t in America, or $35t across the OECD. So AI would need to lay claim to almost a tenth of today’s rich-world wages for the data-centre boom to pencil out...A trillion-dollar AI economy would change the world, in a way that today’s hundred-billion-dollar one has not. Right now, the technology’s economic impact is still limited outside the AI sector itself...Tech companies’ AI spending looks nothing like the rest. The average VC-backed company spends around $100 per employee per month on AI. Regular firms spend only $10 or so." In December of last year, I told my clients to underweight the Mag 7 while maintaining equal-weight exposure to AI picks and shovels. The call was predicated on my expectation that investors would question AI's path to ROI while not questioning the pace of AI CAPEX. I pivoted this September, recommending investors eliminate AI picks and shovels exposure. I expected escalating market insecurity about whether or not AI CAPEX would fall below expectations. Studying enterprise adoption has been core to getting those calls right. As I wrote in my September report on "The AI Trade" (sageroadresearch.com/product…): "The vast majority of consumers don’t spend money on AI, with only 3% of US households paying for an AI service as of March, according to Bank of America data. We’re doubtful that payment rate will increase significantly anytime soon...AI is primarily used by consumers as a search engine and for the entire history of the internet, search engines have been accessible for free. If anything, consumer AI use is a threat to search-driven revenue... Enterprises, not consumers, are the great short- and long-term hope for AI profitability, or as Goldman summed up in May: “Successful enterprise AI adoption will drive the economics for the entire supply chain"...The more enterprises experiment with AI, the more they’re confronting a less-than-viable cost/benefit equation for many operations previously assumed to be ripe for AI disruption...When applied to tasks that require contextual understanding, AI’s persistent flaws will hold back efficiency gains. This will keep AI’s primary utility contained to augmentation more than automation. To our mind, that utility is not powerful enough to accelerate enterprise spending to the levels necessary to alleviate concerns about accelerating CAPEX, especially considering the pricing pressure hyperscalers face."

from jensen's biographer (@stephenwitt) in today's NYT

The hotter-than-expected US CPI print for October, the third consecutive upside surprise, has triggered a sharp repricing across interest rate markets, reinforcing expectations of more aggressive Fed tightening in the coming months. SOFR futures now imply a peak rate 4.8% next September, up 40 basis points on the week.

EasyJet shareholders approve £5.7bn takeover by US private equity firm Apollo, To be loaded with at least £3bn debt, jobs cull already begun. Apollo has history of devouring hospitals and businesses in the US and elsewhere. What future awaits EasyJet? bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cmvg…