The surge in Arab turnout and the likely strong result for the Arab parties Ra'am and the Joint List is the main story of the election (with the subplot of Haredi de-motivation and dysfunction). Both they and the mainstream Zionist opposition face some tough questions about what they can or should attempt in government formation. For the Arab parties, this is an incredible result far exceeding 2015 and 2020, and with two parties rather than a single Joint List. The first question will be how to convert the result into actual benefits for Arab Israelis, which failed in both 2015 and 2020. Ra'am will want to do that from inside a coalition, and the Joint List from outside. The second question will be whether this feat can be repeated in a future election. If not, then this political capital must be spent immediately and fully to avoid wasting it. That would mean forming a government with the opposition (Ra'am), protecting it (Joint List), and then making progress from the inside or demands from the outside that justify the higher level of engagement with Zionist parties. That would keep voters motivated and engaged in the future, since they would see results. The mainstream Zionist opposition faces a different dilemma. There is likely no one to pull into coalition with them from the other Jewish parties without sacrificing a key aim: compromising with the Haredim undermines a core priority for opposition voters; pulling in Smotrich or Ben Gvir will erase any potential to improve relations with the outside world and upset the base; and pulling in Netanyahu risks a rerun of 2020, limiting the benefits internationally of a new government, and is not what opposition voters have signaled they want. That leaves the Arab parties, and more specifically Ra'am. Many of the things the Arab sector needs in Israel--crushing organized crime, investment in infrastructure, education, and communities, etc.--are no-regrets policies important from a basic governance perspective. Greater integration of the Arab community into Israeli society is also key for political and democratic legitimacy, both internally and externally. In other words, much of what the Arab parties want that is not political are things that Zionist parties can and should do anyway. A minority government is not likely to last long. But the combination of circumstances producing today's results--Haredi dysfunction, poor arrangement in the coalition bloc and burned votes, and sky-high Arab turnout--is not likely to repeat itself. If there is an option for an opposition-Ra'am government now, the only viable path forward with it could not be timid. It would need to act and demonstrate results quickly so as to have something to run on if the new government collapses. A unity government promises a certain sort of political safety which should not be underrated, and it would have the legitimacy to make hard choices on a range of issues (if it was able to). But it will not look pretty either, and would be hard to manage in its own way. That's not to mention how it would surely be viewed in the U.S. and elsewhere, let alone the opposition's base, for failing to dislodge Netanyahu. These considerations are not simple or given to quick answers. Party leaders will have plenty of time to think things through in the coming week. I wouldn't expect a clear answer any time soon.

8 p.m. turnout update: 74.3% (5,449,277 votes cast) -- turnout is starting to slow down, but remains higher than all but one election (1988) since 1973 at this stage. It is likely to reach 80%, but will probably not go much above that. The gap from 2022's turnout is 8%.

Turnout in Arab localities has, by my calculation, reached 47.5% as of 4 p.m. That is 8.2% below national turnout (and matches 2022's national turnout), and far ahead of projected Arab turnout at this time in 2022. Arab turnout is on track to significantly exceed 2022 and will cross 60% soon if these trends continue. Negev Bedouin turnout, at 56.8%, is now narrowly leading national turnout. In 2022, these localities had final turnout of only 51%. A stunning get-out-the vote operation likely to benefit Ra'am, which in 2022 captured around 3/4 of the vote from these localities. Non-Bedouin, non-Druze Arab localities sit at 47.7% turnout as of now. In 2022, these localities saw 54.4% turnout overall -- and polls remain open. Christian and Druze localities are still at lower turnout: 43.3% and 33.8%, respectively. However, this might reflect a preference to vote later in the day -- hard to know for sure.

Based on the 12 p.m. polling station-level data, Arab/Druze/Circassian localities are currently showing 24.1% turnout, about 10% behind overall turnout of 31.5%. So far, the only sub-group tracking closely with overall national turnout are the Negev Bedouin (31.3%) To be clear, this data reflects only the polling stations that are reporting updated data and excludes any Arab-Israeli votes from mixed cities and Jerusalem, which may be systematically different in terms of turnout. Still, 24.1% at this stage is notably higher than in 2022, when the aChord center estimated that Arab turnout was 17% only by 2 p.m. That election, turnout seemed to see a greater increase in the afternoon and evening. If that is the case here as well, we should expect a high-turnout Arab vote.

2 hours until the polls open for Israel's 26th Knesset elections. As always, hoping for a safe, secure, and high-turnout vote. A few links to track and accounts to follow: Initial results will be posted shortly after polls close 10 p.m. local: votes26.bechirot.gov.il/ Track voter turnout throughout the day: mapvotes.bechirot.gov.il/ • National turnout updates will be posted every two hours by the Central Elections Committee (CEC), covering up to the hour prior: 11 a.m. (for 10 a.m., and so on), 1 p.m., 3 p.m., 5 p.m., 7 p.m., 9 p.m., and 11 p.m. for final turnout. • Assuming all goes well, turnout by polling place will be published four times during the day: 10 a.m., 1 p.m., 5 p.m., and 9 p.m. Follow the CEC's official account for updates: @electionknesset And in no particular order, some very insightful accounts and professionals worth following to make sense of the day (feel free to add more in the comments, I am missing many excellent people): Live updates, monitoring, and analysis: • @israel_elects • @ElectionOwl • @harelcain • @votesafterdark • @hamalelections Modelers, polling analysts, and data whizzes: • @LittleMoiz • @dahliasc • @Michael_Gilead • @gevakraoz • @skarim_org • @SmilgaNir Reporters and journalists: • @amirettin (via Telegram: t.me/no_politix) • @Knesset99 • @mmagadli (via Telegram: t.me/magadli/) • @BiniAshcknasy • @DaphnaLiel • @AmitSegal • @shemeshmicha And, of course, visit @IsraelPolicy4m's Project 120 to learn the parties, the blocs, the electoral process, where the polls left off on Friday, and to see the results as they come in live with analysis: israelpolicyforum.org/onetwe… See everyone in a few hours.