$SPCX is trying to turn the post-IPO wreckage into a base. Weekly chart shows the June blow-off at 225.64, the washout to 104.83, and this week pushing back through the mid-150s.
**See Weekly Chart**
IPO was June 12 at $135. It spiked to a 52-week high of 225.64 within days, then gave most of it back down to 104.83. Price is now about 156, roughly 31% off the high and about 49% off the low. This week’s range on your chart is 145.36–156.75, last around 156.25, up about 5%. That is a higher low off the summer floor and a push back over the 150 area that stalled the bounce in September. Structure is repair, not a confirmed uptrend. The stock is still well under the breakdown zone from the June spike.
Levels that matter:
- Hold 145–148 (this week’s low / prior close area). Lose that and 140, then the 105 low, come back into play.
- First supply is 160–170. A weekly close above 160 opens 180–190, where the post-IPO air pocket starts.
- 225.64 is the only real high-water mark. Street targets cluster near there, so that zone is both technical and narrative resistance.
**News behind the bid**
The tape is reacting to launch cadence and the AI/Starlink story, not earnings. Starship Flight 14 reached orbit and deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites. Gene Munster called it a bigger week than most investors realize and said a realistic path toward 2,000-plus annual launches by 2030 could more than double the stock from the high-140s. Thursday also brought NASA’s Crew-13 on Falcon 9 and a $68.1 million Filtronic follow-on order. ETFs bought about $110 million of SPCX on Tuesday. Q2 revenue was $7.8 billion, up 92% year over year; connectivity was $4.3 billion and the AI segment $2.6 billion, up 248%. Needham has framed compute deals as a path toward a $54 billion AI run rate inside a $100 billion ARR target. UBS is looking for a Q3 beat ($13.8 billion revenue, $7.5 billion adjusted EBITDA vs. Street $12.9 billion / $6.9 billion).
**Outlook**
Bias is cautiously constructive while 145 holds. A weekly close over 160 would be the first real tell that the base is resolving higher, with 180–190 next and 225 the bigger test. Wall Street is still Buy-leaning: average targets sit around $226–$235, roughly 45–55% above the recent $148 close, with a wide range ($75 to $800). That upside case rests on Starship scaling Starlink V3 and orbital compute. The risk case is the valuation. Market cap is about $2 trillion on roughly $23 billion of trailing revenue, the company is still loss-making, and beta has been running 3–5. One soft launch week or a reset in the AI-ARR narrative and this bounce can fail fast.
Not advice. Levels can shift with the open.
Sources: [stockanalysis.com](stockanalysis.com/stocks/spc…), [Benzinga on Munster](benzinga.com/news/space/26/0…), [Benzinga launch/Filtronic](benzinga.com/trading-ideas/m…), [Motley Fool on Starship V3](fool.com/investing/2026/10/0…), [TipRanks/UBS](tipranks.com/news/spacex-sto…).
$BWET ~$727. hitting an ATH of 785.12
Freight-futures ETF. Started 2026 near $19. ~3,700% YTD. 5,000%+ in 12 months.
It does not own ships. It owns near-dated VLCC day-rate futures — mostly ME-to-China.
Hormuz has been a war zone since late Feb. Normal traffic ~74 ships/day. Lately a handful. VLCC spots have printed $400k–$579k+/day. The ETF tracks that curve almost 1:1.
It can still run. Dual chokepoints, pipeline hits, another flare-up = fewer hulls, higher futures.
The other side is an elevator.
One event built this. A real reopening or credible ceasefire reprices the front of the curve in hours. We’ve already seen 13–40% air pockets on “maybe it’s over” headlines.
3.5% fee. Thin float. No earnings floor when the geo premium comes out.
Not advice. Tape can keep running while the strait stays closed. The unwind will not be polite.
When will investors get soaked?
benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etf…
$BWET #Hormuz #Tankers #VLCC #Shipping #ETF #FreightFutures #OilShipping #StraitOfHormuz #Stockmarket
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🚀 Pre-Market Strength: $SPY & $SPX
$SPY sitting at 772 in premarket after yesterday’s HOD push to 771.
Technicals:
Holding the bounce from yesterday’s 766.76 close
Premarket bid above the prior session high = constructive
Short-term momentum positive heading into Friday
Broader structure still intact above major moving averages
Key Levels for Today:
Resistance / Targets: 774–776 SPY / 7,750–7,770 SPX
Immediate Support: 770–771 SPY / 7,710–7,730 SPX
Stronger Support: 766–768 SPY / 7,680–7,700 SPX
Bias: Cautiously bullish.
Hold above 770 keeps Friday’s path higher open. Lose 768 and yesterday’s bounce starts to fade.
Premarket 772 — can we push through yesterday’s high and close the week strong?
#SPY #SPX #StockMarket #Trading #Premarket #BullMarket
Disclaimer: Not financial advice. For entertainment & educational purposes only. Always do your own research (DYOR) and trade at your own risk. Past performance ≠ future results.
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🔥 THE NEXT AI BOTTLENECK IS HERE — AND IT’S BIGGER THAN MEMORY
Lumentum CEO Michael Hurlston on July 8th dropped a bombshell:
The indium phosphide (InP) shortage powering AI optical lasers & high-speed interconnects “will become even more acute than what we see from the memory guys.”
Hyperscalers (led by NVIDIA) are demanding hundreds of millions of lasers. Current supply gap? >30%. No easy substitute — silicon can’t emit light like InP.
Key stocks as of Friday 7/31 close:
• $LITE $713.94
SMA20 ≈ $745 | SMA50 ≈ $826
Recent bounce from ~$600 low. Support zone $650–700. Resistance $780–900. 52w high $1,085.
Watch for reclaim of 20-day MA for continuation toward $900+.
• $COHR $262.89
SMA20 ≈ $292 | SMA50 ≈ $347
Similar sharp pullback then Friday rebound. Support $240–250. Next resistance $290–310. 52w high $440.
• $AXTI $60.43 🚀 (+28.7% Friday!)
InP substrate pure-play (critical upstream). Now above SMA20 ($52) but still below SMA50 ($77). Support $50–55. Resistance $70–80. Explosive volatility — 52w high $143.
• $AAOI $94.32
Optical modules. Support $85–90. Resistance $110–120.
• $NVDA $200.75 (already invested billions into both LITE + COHR)
Other potential beneficiaries of the optics boom:
$CRDO • $ALAB • $MRVL
Technical snapshot:
The group sold off hard in late July (profit-taking after massive runs) but showed strong buying interest Friday — especially AXTI. Long-term uptrends remain intact on higher timeframes. Short-term: look for holds above key supports and volume confirmation on breaks of the 20-day MAs.
Possible watch levels this week:
•LITE break & hold >$750
•AXTI sustained move above $65–70
•Broader sector confirmation if COHR reclaims $280+
The fundamental story is powerful: sold-out capacity into 2027–2028, NVIDIA capital, and structural InP constraints that take years to fix.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER
This is not financial advice. For educational and discussion purposes only. Stock prices move fast, past performance is no guarantee of future results, and you can lose money. Do your own research, consider your risk tolerance, and consult a licensed financial advisor. Markets are volatile — especially in AI-related names.
Who’s watching these levels with me? Drop your thoughts below. 📈⚡️
📊 Conflicting Views Right Now: $SPY $SPX $QQQ
Market feels split heading into today:
Bull Case:
Broader uptrend still intact above major moving averages
Dips continue to get bought (classic bull behavior)
Positive news flow and tech resilience supporting the structure
Bear Case:
Failed rallies and rejection at key resistance levels
Risk of retesting recent lows (June low area on QQQ ~386) if bulls can’t push higher soon
Downward-sloping short-term MAs and bearish engulfing candles raising caution
The Reality:
We’re in a tug-of-war. Hold key support = bullish continuation likely. Break lower = aggressive downside possible with TSLA/tech leading.
Where do you stand — Team Bull or Bear this week? Drop your take 👇
#SPY #SPX #QQQ #StockMarket #Trading
Disclaimer: Not financial advice. For entertainment & educational purposes only. Always DYOR and trade at your own risk.
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🚀 Pre-Market Strength: $SPY & $SPX
SPY closed yesterday at 742.15 and is up in premarket to 746.68. Chips moving higher in tandem — tech leading the way.
Technicals:
Bullish continuation after yesterday’s close
Strong momentum with semis rallying
Price pushing above recent levels
Key Levels Today:
Next Targets: 748–750 SPY / 7,480–7,500 SPX
Immediate Support: 744–745 SPY / 7,440–7,450 SPX
Stronger Support: 740–742 SPY / 7,410–7,430 SPX
Bias: Bullish. Hold the premarket gains and we could see a strong open. News flow remains a wildcard.
Chips leading the charge premarket — green open incoming?
#SPY #SPX #StockMarket #Trading #BullMarket #Premarket
Disclaimer: Not financial advice. For entertainment & educational purposes only. Always do your own research (DYOR) and trade at your own risk. Past performance ≠ future results.
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📉 Pre-Market Pullback: $SPY & $SPX
SPY closed yesterday at 750.76 but hit a premarket low of 742.58 this morning. Early selling pressure showing up.
Technicals:
Short-term momentum turning negative after yesterday’s close
Testing near-term support after failing to hold higher levels
Broader uptrend still intact but under pressure
Key Levels Today:
Resistance: 748–750 SPY / 7,480–7,500 SPX
Immediate Support: 742–743 SPY / 7,420–7,430 SPX (today’s low area)
Stronger Support: 738–740 SPY / 7,380–7,400 SPX
Bias: Cautious short-term. Hold above 742 keeps it range-bound. Break below 738 = more downside risk.
Premarket dip after yesterday’s close — dip buyers stepping in or more weakness ahead?
#SPY #SPX #StockMarket #Trading
Disclaimer: Not financial advice. For entertainment & educational purposes only. Always do your own research (DYOR) and trade at your own risk. Past performance ≠ future results.
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🚀 Pre-Market SPX Tip on Fidelity Trader+
Want early access? In the order ticket:
Go to Details
Select Good 'til 9:25 (Route to CBOE)
Perfect for trading SPX futures before the 9:30 cash open.
Who else uses this setup?
#SPX #Trading #Futures #Premarket #Fidelity
Disclaimer: Not financial advice. For entertainment & educational purposes only. Always DYOR and trade at your own risk.










