Enigma Eye

$2K → $100K CHALLENGE I started this around 45 days ago. The goal is to run this portfolio to $100K and, eventually, see if I can take it to $1M. Will I make it? I genuinely don’t know. I can lose, take profits earlier, change the plan or stop whenever I want. A few friends recently asked me why I took certain trades and what was going through my head when I made those decisions. That made me think that maybe I should start journaling the whole thing publicly. Not only the winners after they already happened. I want to show: -Why I entered -Why I sized the way I did -Why I held -Why I sold -Where I had real edge -Where I got lucky -Where fear affected me -Where greed affected me and where I completely f**ked up. When I started trading, I would have loved to follow someone showing that process while it was actually happening. Not someone posting the winner after the chart already did 50x, but someone showing the ugly part too. So that is what I want to try here. My trading is mostly built around three types of plays. The first, and by far the most important for me, is conviction plays. That is where I made most of my money in the past. I like finding narratives early, usually near the bottom or during periods where nobody really cares yet. I study them, build conviction, try to position with enough size and then the real work starts: holding. Sometimes nothing happens for weeks. Sometimes I am red. Sometimes everything else is running while my bag looks dead. That is usually where the opportunity starts becoming psychologically expensive. But those are the trades I ultimately want to find. I don’t need 50 of them. I need a few exceptional ones and enough conviction to stay when the market starts testing me. The second type is momentum. Sometimes something new appears and attention starts moving so quickly that waiting for a perfect bottom makes no sense. The chart may already be blasting, but if I understand why people are buying, why the story is spreading and why I think more people will come after me, I am comfortable entering momentum. I don’t need to be early on price if I still think I am early on attention. Then I also flip, probably around 30% of what I trade right now. Fast capitulations, FIB areas, support bounces, oversold reactions, quick rotations. Those trades are not supposed to change my life. Their main purpose is to create liquidity while I wait for the bigger conviction setups. Especially with a smaller portfolio, that can make sense. But there is also a downside I have noticed in myself. If I flip too much, I start training my nervous system for a completely different game: enter, move, sell, next trade. You start expecting immediate feedback. Then you enter a conviction play and suddenly nothing happens for a month. Now you are uncomfortable, you want action, you start looking at other charts and you convince yourself that moving capital is “being productive.” Sometimes it is. Sometimes you are just bored. This is something I want to observe very carefully during the challenge because holding is still the skill that made me the most money. If flips stop being profitable, I slow down. If I notice they are damaging my ability to hold bigger positions, I stop. Sometimes not taking a trade is also a trade. So realistically this portfolio will move between conviction plays, momentum, flips and cash. The size will never be completely fixed either. It depends on the setup, the downside, how much conviction I have and also, if I am being honest, what state of mind I am in. But i have to be honest here, I feel some pressure doing this. When you trade privately, you only have to deal with yourself. When people are watching, another layer appears. Maybe I don’t want to sell because I spent three days publicly explaining why I was bullish. Maybe I don’t want to admit I changed my mind. Maybe I am sitting in red and feel stupid because everyone saw my entry. Maybe I hold something longer than I should because now my ego is involved too. That can become dangerous very quickly. So one rule for me is already clear: I never want to make a trading decision because of something I previously tweeted. If the information changes, I want to change my mind. If I want to take profit, I will take profit. If I want to withdraw half of the portfolio, I can. If I want to end the challenge, I can. The portfolio serves me. I don’t serve the challenge. The $100K target gives this experiment a direction, but I am not going to destroy good decision making just so I can say I completed some internet challenge. And this is also not my entire net worth. It is a separate portfolio I chose to run more aggressively. I want to make that clear because I don’t want people copying my trades without understanding the risk behind them. Actually, I don’t want copy traders at all. Don’t buy because I bought. Don’t expect me to tell you before I sell. Don’t get angry if I change my mind. My entry is not yours. My risk tolerance is not yours. My portfolio is not yours. The only thing I want you to copy is the process of thinking for yourself. Take whatever mental models are useful and ignore the ones that are not. Maybe you notice one of my mistakes and avoid doing the same thing. Maybe you disagree with one of my trades and your reasoning ends up being better than mine. Good. That is exactly the kind of people I want around me. I am doing this partly for myself because journaling has already helped me catch patterns in my own behavior. Partly for the person who is entering crypto now the same way I once did, with no real idea what the fuck he is doing. And partly because I genuinely enjoy seeing people around me win. If this ends up creating a small group of traders who think independently, share information and get better together, that alone would make it worth doing. I don’t know where this ends. Maybe I run $2K to $100K. Maybe eventually $1M. Maybe I make a stupid mistake and destroy the challenge. Maybe I realize public pressure is negatively affecting my trading and stop. All of those outcomes are possible. But if I do this, I want to show the real version: the skill, the luck, the fear, the greed, the boredom, the conviction, the mistakes, the moments where I thought I was a genius and the moments where the market reminded me I wasn’t. My PnL is already public. Now I want to make the thinking behind it public too. Let’s see how far $2K can go.

Chat?

With the recent move, it feels like we may be forming a local bottom here. Historically, U.S. markets have often performed well after the midterms. Since 1974, the S&P 500 has averaged +5.7% in the 3 months after midterms and +12.4% over the following 6 months, although obviously that is not a trading rule and BTC does not have to follow the same path. After touching around $75.6K which was close enough to my level, BTC also recovered back above $78K pretty quickly. That does not confirm the bottom, but at least for now I like the reaction. I am going to think through this properly during the day, but my current suspicion is that we may see a new local high sometime over the next month. Obviously my selfish hope is that this lines up with $BATON outperforming and helping us win the challenge lol. I still have the remaining funds in the challenge wallet and I am willing to deploy them. The decision now is whether I find another conviction play worth building from these lows, or whether I simply increase the positions where I already have the most conviction. I do not want to deploy just because prices are lower though. If I add something new, I want a real reason to believe it deserves capital more than what I already own. So for now I am watching, thinking and keeping an open mind. If you guys are seeing something interesting that you think fits the way I trade, I am open to looking at it.

GTA 6 ANT IPO Black Friday What else ?

Today raped 😂🥸 It looks like I have to make only 300k to be on top 3 with our group. We have time for this. Maybe i will activate my mad mode in the last days

Update on the challenge. Closing October green. It’s been a solid month. Even with the "fat loss" on $FONE, I consistently grew the portfolio and finished around +$11k realized on the account. I’m not counting my $BATON position here. I took some initials, but I’m still holding most of it and likely will for the coming months. Same with $AI What makes this month more important to me is the difference compared to September. In September I felt like I was seeing the right opportunities but not converting them properly. I would hesitate, undersize, wait for better entries, sometimes overmanage the position, and then watch the trade I had already identified move without enough of my capital behind it. October I started separating my trading much more clearly into two different games: 1) Conviction trading. - Very few trades. - Deep research. - Meaningful size. I’m willing to accumulate, sit through volatility, hold for weeks or months and give the right tail enough time to actually matter. That’s where I think the biggest portfolio jumps will eventually come from and where i want to focus this entire cycle. 2) Tactical trading. Much more frequent and much more specific. FIB levels, momentum, PVPs, reflex moves, temporary dislocations, attention shifts. Here I’m not trying to marry the coin. I’m waiting for my setup, taking meaningful size when the level is right, and getting out when the reason for the trade has played out. A surprisingly large part of this month’s profit came from this second game. $BILL, $SPEC, $Agency, $HOOKED, $Tyger and several others were basically variations of the same idea. I Let the setup come to me. Execute. Move on. One thing I noticed very clearly is that I trade much better when I wait for my level instead of chasing. If the coin runs without me, fine. There will always be another trade. The moment I start thinking “I need this one” is usually the moment I start paying a worse price, making worse decisions and managing the trade emotionally. One important lesson: My mental state changes the quality of my execution dramatically. After six consecutive green days, I noticed a subtle switch. Instead of continuing to repeat the decisions that got me there, my brain started focusing on protecting the money I had already made. “How do I avoid giving this back?” That was enough to change my behavior. I became more hesitant. I missed setups I probably would have taken a week earlier. Then I went through five red days before recalibrating again. That taught me something important. The goal isn’t simply to become more aggressive or less emotional. The real skill is being able to recognize the game I’m in and stay internally stable enough to execute the right action for that game. Sometimes the correct move is to size up. Sometimes it’s to wait. Sometimes it’s to cut immediately. Sometimes it’s to sit through a brutal drawdown because nothing in the thesis has changed. Sometimes doing absolutely nothing is the highest-EV decision. One more thing: Importance of paying myself. It’s very easy in trading to stay inside the game forever. You make money, increase the bankroll, take more risk, make more money, put it back into another trade, and keep repeating the loop. Eventually the numbers become bigger, but your actual life may not have changed much. At some point the game has to produce something outside the game. Pay myself. Trading PnL and realized wealth are two different things. November is about putting all of this together. When the market and setup are right, I want to be more risk-on, deploy meaningful capital and let the trade become large enough to matter. When conditions are bad, I want to be completely comfortable waiting. And regardless of how good things are going, I want to keep extracting something from the game instead of endlessly recycling every dollar back into risk. My goal for November: - Recognize the game faster. - Deploy the correct capital. - Cut when that game’s win condition fails. - Let the few exceptional bets actually matter. - Pay myself along the way.

So here we go. BTC touched around $76K. Was I expecting a Binance hack to be what pushed us here? Definitely not. But now that it happened, you can literally feel the capitulation. People are scared, positions are getting nuked and a lot of holders just want out regardless of price. This is exactly the kind of environment I was waiting for. Not the hack itself obviously, but the panic. The incident is massive and it definitely damages trust in exchanges. Binance says the total impact is around $6.3B, with roughly $3B already frozen, and that users will be covered. Unless something much worse comes out that we don’t know yet, my current view is that Binance survives this. The market reaction is another question. I still think BTC can trade lower into the $70Ks. I don’t know where the exact bottom is and pretending I can perfectly sniper it may end up hurting me more than helping me. So I started adding to my $BATON position. Not all at once. I still want liquidity in case we get another ugly leg down, and I also want some capital available for other trades that can hopefully create more ammo to eventually put into my highest-conviction positions. The way I see it, heavy hands need sellers if they want to build huge positions. Fear gives them that liquidity. Maybe $76K is the bottom. Maybe we still have another flush in us. I genuinely don’t know. But a lot of memes I like are now sitting in accumulation ranges after getting absolutely destroyed, sentiment feels horrible and people are finally being forced to make uncomfortable decisions. That is usually when I want to start paying more attention, not less. I’m not going all-in here. I’ll watch the next few days, keep some liquidity and try to stay clear-headed if things get even uglier. Personally, this is the first time in a while where buying feels uncomfortable enough that I actually like it.

$AI will run so hard

I think this cycle is going to turn into a full-on fight between ecosystems. $BASE will eventually launch its token and I expect them to compete aggressively with Robinhood. $SOL on the other hand is not going to give up its leadership without fighting. Before that happens, I think Solana can still produce multiple billion-dollar runners, and $BATON could easily be one of the assets that kickstarts another major wave of attention. $BNB won’t sit there doing nothing either. They know how to push an ecosystem hard when they decide to. My only issue is that, personally, it still feels more concentrated around funds, incentives and coordinated pushes. That is where SOL and Robinhood stand out to me right now. Their meme environments feel more creative, chaotic and organic. There is more room for culture, utility and completely unexpected things to appear. $GRAM has insane potential too, but at this point I think everyone knows my opinion there: It all comes down to execution. This is why my current approach is becoming pretty simple. I want to identify at least one main runner from every ecosystem and then keep adapting as the cycle develops. Right now: SOL: $BATON ROBINHOOD: $AI, $PONS and a few others I’ll probably talk about later BNB: still undecided. $MARSCOIN is strong, just not something I personally want to size right now BASE: $BASECAT, plus whatever strong stock-paired / alt-paired meta eventually develops there TON: $UTYA as the mascot, plus the broader sticker meta This is only the starting point. I’m almost certain that a lot of the biggest runners of this cycle don’t even exist yet, or are sitting at valuations nobody takes seriously right now. Our job is not to predict every single one in advance. It is to stay close enough to the market that when something changes, we notice it and act. And I also think the people who make the biggest money this cycle will probably be the ones willing to take the biggest calculated risks when everyone else still thinks the idea sounds retarded. People like Hugo, Crissy and plenty of others already operate like that. My goal is to be one of the retards who believed enough, early enough, and actually had the balls to act when the opportunity appeared. Good luck to all of you. Let’s make this cycle count.

$BATON community is insane. Everyone is united around one goal to show what a real cult can achieve when enough delusional holders refuse to leave. Look at this pic. Top 3 and Top 11 are both $BATON holders. There is no ceiling for a community like this when the people holding the floor are this convicted. Common belief = infinite upside.