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Texas, USA
Joined January 2025
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FT Trading Floor retweeted
Yes, I'm still bullish on memory like $MU / Samsung.
As I said earlier, markets tend to rotate from bottleneck to bottleneck.
This week it looks $AXTI to $LITE in the photonics sector is the focus again.
The thing is... the primary thing that changed are the stock prices, followed by some narratives + updates sprinkled in here and there.
For photonics:
> We already knew $COHR / $LITE lasers were completely sold out for the next 2 years during July's drop.
> We knew about demand imbalance from $AAOI from last quarter's earnings calls.
Nothing deteriorated fundamentally during July's crash, other than listed price after liquidations.
Yet tons of people called $AAOI a "scam" when it dropped to $75, or $AXTI a "scam" on its drop to $35...
But are bullish again at $140 or $80, when the transciver/InP substrate bottleneck hasn't changed at all, but maybe even got worse... (eg. draft for US ban on new china optical transceivers, scale up demand projections)
For Memory:
I'm witnessing a lot of retail capitulation, but the same people I'm seeing were mega bullish after $MU signed 16 SCAs and gave exceptional projections a month ago.
Or were celebrating Samsung having the highest operating profit in the world.
There's updates here and there eg. Rubin Ultra with memory optimizations (which Nvidia strives for every generation), with prices no longer being hiked way above expectations to the extreme.
But the operating income relative to MC is just absurd around current prices, especially memory becomes structural.
And the demand imbalance should be even worse next year.
People tend to capitulate and follow narratives when a sector drops (eg. Helium/LNG back in Iran war), even if the bottleneck or fundamental situation hasn't really changed much (eg. $SPCX Elon earnings call reiterating memory tightness).
I can't tell others what to to do:
But $AAOI at $140 and $AAOI at $75 are the same company.
Samsung at a $1.5T MC and Samsung at a $980B MC are the same company.
Just valuations and narratives (often noise) change, and markets rotate from sector to sector.
FT Trading Floor retweeted
🚨 SPACEX FELL 50% - EXACTLY WHAT I WANTED
I told you this drop was coming.
SpaceX is now down almost ~50% from its peak.
The $SPCX falling right now is actually the part I've been waiting for.
Everyone's screaming "failed IPO."
They're right about the price and wrong about what it means.
Here's what's actually happening:
~5% of SpaceX floats.
The rest unlocks in waves - 20% after Q2 earnings, then tranches through November.
Each wave dumps supply onto a stock that already stopped buying at $225.
That's the mechanic crushing it.
Not the company.
The plumbing.
And yes - the bears have real points.
Japan landed a reusable rocket.
Flight 13 slipped.
The valuation is stretched.
That's exactly why this keeps bleeding through every unlock.
But watch what happens on the other side.
Once the float is fat and the last locked shares hit the tape, the supply overhang is gone.
No more forced sellers.
That's the moment the sellers run dry - and that's when real size steps in, not before.
Institutions don't buy the hype at $225.
They buy the exhaustion after the final unlock, when the timeline has already left for dead.
The unlock schedule is the whole map.
I'm not buying yet.
The best entry of 2026 is on the far side of these waves. You'll know the moment I move.
NFA. Notifications on.
Sorry, but you WILL regret not following me earlier.
🚨 SPACEX WILL RETIRE US ALL
Everyone's panicking that SPACEX just closed below its IPO price.
Rocket Lab did the exact same thing.
Then it ran 37x.
RKLB debuted near $10.
Fell under $4.
Spent almost two years below its debut price while the timeline called it dead money.
That was the entry. $4 → $150.
But here's what nobody tells you about this pattern:
The accumulation box on this chart is TWO YEARS wide.
That's why you'll miss it.
It's not a dip you buy on Tuesday.
It's a phase so long and boring it outlasts your conviction.
Retail needs a reason to hold.
Institutions just need a price.
SpaceX just entered that box.
Chart below. Same script, faster clock.
NFA. Notifications on.
You might regret not following me in 1 month
