Missed classes at @IIMKozhikode Current: @Birdeye_ Previous: @oyorooms @HTC @compass @proptiger @google #IndieHacker #SEO SEOs #SaaS #MicroSaaS #Investor
San Francisco
Joined July 2018
- Tweets5.8K
- Following2.3K
- Followers694
- Likes1.3K
Pinned Tweet
🚀Did you know only 0.07% of companies ever reach the $100M ARR milestone?
That's a rare feat!
Today, I'm unraveling the success story of a company that's part of this exclusive club in the #SaaS world: @Birdeye_ . Stay tuned! #Investing #Tech
Read more: birdeye.com/blog/celebrating…
Avtar Madan retweeted
“I have left cash on the table now because it makes me uncomfortable to invest every dollar in this market which has run up so much, especially the AI trade”
Professor Aswath Damodaran spoke to me about how the US market valuations make him uncomfortable.
Full chat out now with @AswathDamodaran
Avtar Madan retweeted
India needs a ministry of compute.
Like ministry of oil, we need laser-focus from the top to build compute necessary for participating in the future economy.
Otherwise, we will repeat in a decade what we’re doing now: spending expensive forex for importing what we don’t have.
Avtar Madan retweeted
“I’m not too worried about steep valuations in the small cap space, there are many good ideas out there and we are fully invested. Small caps cannot be cheap because growth is very high in many businesses” says @vikaskhemani of @carnelian_asset
Carnelian mutual fund has launched a small cap fund in which they have capped the AUM at 5000cr so that they can be nimble and invest in niche ideas.
Full episode out on The Money Mindset ✨
Avtar Madan retweeted
I keep saying this but if you understand basic economics the only one winning here is Big AI and Big Tech
It's a race to the bottom for anyone else in software
So try become a co-owner of big AI and Big Tech stock and survive off their dividends and/or stock appreciation
Avtar Madan retweeted
Akash Prakash has invested in Indian equities for over 30 years. In today's Business Standard he writes that, for the first time, global allocators are asking him whether India needs a dedicated allocation at all.
India's weight in the MSCI Emerging Markets index has fallen from 21% in September 2024 to about 10%. TSMC alone now carries a weight 50% larger than the whole of India.
Since that peak, he puts Indian equities down about 25% in dollar terms while EM indices are up about 50%.
He still reads this as a contrarian signal and expects the tide to turn.
Global funds are asking whether India deserves its own bucket.
Most Indian investors have never asked that question the other way. For them, India is the whole portfolio.
Avtar Madan retweeted
If you want to maximise earnings, go to the US 🇺🇸.
If you want a better work life balance, choose the UK 🇬🇧.
If your priority is immigration and settlement pathways, Canada 🇨🇦.
If you want high salaries, sunshine and a strong quality of life, consider Australia 🇦🇺.
If you want affordable living, strong worker protections and access to Europe's largest economy, look at Germany 🇩🇪.
If you want low taxes and the chance to build wealth quickly, the UAE 🇦🇪
If you want safety, stability and excellent public services, consider New Zealand 🇳🇿.
If you want access to Europe with a growing English-speaking ecosystem, Ireland 🇮🇪 .
There is no best country. The right choice depends on whether your priority is money, lifestyle, career growth, citizenship, family, or taxes
Avtar Madan retweeted
Imagine 5 years from now when we have AIs that are superhuman at all tasks that we humans care about.
At that point, the only thing we will seek from other humans is social connection to satisfy our inborn craving for exchanging stories and gossip around campfire.
For all other activities where efficiency and outcomes matter, there will be an AI that does it better, cheaper and faster which will push us to finding humans a bottleneck in getting what we want.
Right now, functions and social connection comes in a bundle. At a company, you not only get work done but also exchange gossip and practice politics. Similar with conferences, you learn a little and you connect a little. Same with universities.
Soon, these functions will get unbundled. For work, education, governance, advice, AIs will be far superior; while schools, conferences and workplaces will all morph into kinds of playgrounds that we haven’t yet invented.
Avtar Madan retweeted
We're about to enter a period where not reading or writing becomes as ubiquitous as smoking once was. We can hope people will eventually realize this is bad for them, as they did with smoking. But this is far from certain; the cost may not be as obvious.
Avtar Madan retweeted
My predictions over the following months:
1. Stock market will get hurt bad when the music stops on data centers, models, and chips.
Too much froth, too high of investment, too many companies will fail. The switching costs are low. I don't know how these companies will become profitable. Its a mega bubble.
The rest of the economy is already in a deep recession. Real pain will set in when the public markets dive.
2. Power is the bottleneck.
AI is burning an absurd amount of power. The cost of electricity is skyrocketing which is making the cost of everyday life more expensive and hurting quality of life. I'm against data centers because of the power, not the water.
The grid is extremely fragile and the weakness will be exposed in the coming months.
3. Subsidies are skewing the market.
AI isn't cheap. The prices to use it are artificially low because of subsidies all the way up the chain.
You pay $20 or $200 a month but the true costs are 10x That spread is venture capital money being incinerated at scale.
When they raise the price, the users will disappear and investors will hold the bag.
3. A big security breach is coming.
A bank, a certain model, something is going to rock our world.
People are letting bots log in to their banks, their email and everything else. Big trouble coming.
4. Grokbot is exceptional.
Its the first model that is adding significant value to my everyday life. I don't know why anybody would use a different personal assistant.
5. AI is insanely high maintenance
Billions are being poured into training the next model. They day it comes out its already behind. China has cheaper electricity and more chips.
The chips they bought will be obsolete in 18 months.
Companies are stuck paying big money every month to maintain and update all of their AI tools. Its a mess.
6. The power companies will renege on their deals.
Political pressure will unwind all the unsustainable power deals these data centers and LLMs have negotiated.
Power costs will explode. Then comes the choice:
Do we jack up costs for our AI / compute and watch everybody switch to the next model or do we incinerate more VC capital? Nobody wins.
7. Credit will be the first domino to fall.
Data centers are already struggling to finance the GPUs over 10 years when they will be obsolete in 18 months. We'll end up with a shit load of half built data centers who can't negotiate power rates or buy chips because nobody will let them borrow money.
The money will get cold feet as soon as the markets tank and the show will be over.
8. It'll be a dark, dark period in economic markets.
The people who own assets that make real money (real estate or businesses) will win.
The people who plan ahead and avoid massive leverage will win.
The people with cash on their balance sheet will accumulate more assets and generate exceptional wealth.
--
Don't listen to me. I'm just a bear. Not investment advice. Good luck!
Avtar Madan retweeted
サム・アルトマン（openAI,Chat-GPTのトップ）「ほぼ全てのセキュリティが無効化される。口座の預金も消える」
「声や顔が偽造できるのに電話で「生年月日と住所を教えてください」で本人確認？狂気の沙汰だ！」
顔も声もAIに盗まれる――預金が根こそぎ消える「史上最悪の詐欺」が秒読み
「あなたの声も顔もAIが一瞬で作れる。誰も信じるな」 AIのトップが銀行幹部に直接叩きつけたヤバすぎる警告をわきりやすく👇
・「電話の声で本人確認」は完全にオワコン
AIが誰の声でも完璧にマネできるため、声で本人確認して、誕生日や住所を言っただけで金を動かす仕組みは崩壊。あなたのフリをして預金を奪うなんて朝飯前です。
・ビデオ通話の相手も「全員ニセモノ」になる
自撮りや顔認証も突破され、もうすぐビデオ通話すら本物と見分けがつかなくなります。画面に映る家族や友達すら信用できなくなります。
・犯罪者が悪用する「超巨大詐欺」は目の前
「公開していないだけで技術はもうある」と暴露。犯罪グループに使われれば、世界中から大金が一瞬で消えるパニックがすぐそこまで来ています。
要するに、「『AIが声も顔も完璧に偽造できるため、銀行の本人確認は全滅。ビデオ通話すらニセモノになる時代が来て、世界中で預金が盗まれる危機が秒読みだ』とAIの生みの親が警告している」ということです。
Avtar Madan retweeted
ビル・ゲイツ「これから20年間、世界は大混乱に陥る」
AIが全員を豊かにする前に訪れる「地獄の20年」――人間の仕事は完全に消滅する（2026年10月22日のインタビュー）
「豊かな未来が来る前に、人類は『20年間の大パニック』を生き残らなければならない」
世界を裏から見通す男ビル・ゲイツが、AIとロボットが完成する直前に訪れる「最も危険な20年間の過渡期」について明かした警告をわかりやすく👇
・「今後20年間」は勝者と敗者に分かれて社会が大荒れになる
AIが全人類を豊かにする天国が来る前に、これから約20年間は「猛烈な混乱の時代」が続くと断言。これまでの常識がガラガラと崩れ去り、仕事を奪われる負け組と、莫大な富を握る勝ち組に社会が真っ二つに引き裂かれます。
・家づくりも農業も手術も「激安ロボット」が全部やる
特に中国などが莫大なお金を突っ込んで、器用に手足を動かす人間そっくりのロボットを猛スピードで開発しています。あと数年から10年もすれば、家を建てる大工仕事も、野菜を育てる農業も、医者の外科手術もすべてロボットがタダ同然のコストでこなすようになります。
・人間の労働は「完全に不要」になり、誰も働けなくなる
この開発を今すぐ世界中でストップさせない限り、人間が生活やお金のために働く仕組みそのものが完全に消滅します。問題は、全員が働かずに暮らせるゴールにたどり着くまでの「これからの20年間」、世界が耐えきれずに崩壊するリスクだとゲイツは冷徹に警告しています。
要するに、「『いずれAIとロボットが何でもタダ同然で作ってくれる時代が来るが、それまでの20年間は仕事が消滅して格差と大混乱で世界中が地獄のサバイバルになる。人間が働く必要が完全になくなるまでの大パニックをどう生き残るのか』とビル・ゲイツが衝撃の予告をしている」ということです。
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
この投稿はビル・ゲイツのThe Verge「Decoder」ポッドキャスト発言を大幅に誇張しています。ゲイツはAI移行期の混乱を懸念しつつ豊かさへの到達と管理・選択の重要性を述べており、「地獄の20年」や即時停止・崩壊の直接警告はありません。
theverge.com/podcast/101540…
businessinsider.com/bill-gates-ai-…
observer.co.uk/news/technolog…
Unsung Hero spotted.
More than 70% of Punjab’s paddy has already been harvested. I’ve personally harvested my crop and chosen not to burn the stubble.
That decision alone is costing me around ₹3,500–4,000 per acre close to ₹4 lakh out of my own pocket just for cleaner air and a better environment.
No government support. No meaningful incentives. Yet, year after year, Punjab’s farmers are blamed for Delhi’s pollution and accused of not paying taxes.
A simple question: would you be willing to spend ₹4 lakh from your own pocket purely for the environment?
Before blaming every farmer in Punjab, understand the cost many of them are willingly bearing.
Salute to every such farmer. 🌾🇮🇳
Avtar Madan retweeted
AGENT HARNESSES ARE THE NEW GPT WRAPPERS
What exactly is an agent harness? A harness does 4 things:
1. Runs the model in a loop so it keeps working step after step instead of answering once and stopping.
2. Gives it hands to read files, call tools, open portals, and run code.
3. Manages its memory so hour three of a job still knows what happened on hour one.
4. Enforces the rules about what it can touch and when it has to stop and ask a human.
WHY IT'S INTERESTING
- The market is MEGA. I think about it like a wrapper let you sell software ($800B market) but a harness lets you sell the work ($5T+ market)!
- It doesn't depend on any one company's model. The knowledge about the job lives in the harness, so you can run GPT today, Claude next month, an open model like Google Gemma, Qwen, Deepseek etc on your own machine after that, and it keeps working. A wrapper was one model doing everything and a harness is a router.
- It gets better the more you use it. See, every correction a human makes becomes a rule the harness keeps, so what you have after 500 jobs is a completely different product than what you had after 5. Wrappers only got better when OpenAI got better.
- You can charge for finished work! The harness knows when a job is done, so you can price per claim, per filing, per review, per resolved exception, or per closed month. This helps compete with SaaS!
- Most jobs are just the same handful of decisions, repeated, using the same few tools. That's true for most of the 800+ occupations out there, which is why almost all of them could have a harness built for them. Lots of space for startups to be building.
-The frontier labs won't come for these. OpenAI is not going to learn how a freight claim gets denied in Rotterdam or which prior auth your specific payer rejects. Those markets are too small for them and the knowledge only exists inside the job. They'll keep making the models better, which just makes your harness better which is cool.
- OH, AND really important, you can ACTUALLY build one now. OpenAI's Agents API, Claude's managed agents, Vercel's eve, LangChain harness framework etc. They all make it way easier to build agent harnesses.
Agent harnesses truly are the new GPT wrappers.
This is just the beginning.
