
Trader(All Mkts), Fixed Income/Macro, $SPX Aficionado, long/short every tick since 1998. On the self-improvement journey. Peekaboooo™️ warning originator
Joined August 2009
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If you’re a serious trader and want to be surrounded with a group of traders with only one purpose-to beat mkts, check out: @PowerTradingRm I give real time commentary 18hrs a day in there.
Note, GS PB highlighted US Info Tech net allocation (as % of total US net MV) now stands at 14.4%, approaching multi-year lows in the 1st/1 st/3rd percentiles on a 1-year/3-year/5-year lookback. Semis positioning has now almost fully roundtripped in 2026. GIR note calling the sector "clearly oversold" garnere attention this AM with a few compelling risk/reward
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US long/short net exposure is at the 1st percentile, and beta-adjusted exposure is at the 0th.
Do what you want with that info
This x 100
Stan Druckenmiller: Knowing When to Stop Analyzing Is the Biggest Mistake We Make
I think it's the biggest mistake in our business. At some point, the analysis becomes counterproductive. That's one thing I've learned, and it's greatly to my advantage. Speed matters now. With AI and email and everything else, if you sit around and analyze a company for four months and you're not willing to operate with 15% or 20% of information, you'll often miss just a big move and then you're afraid to buy it because it has moved.
That to me is a core belief. Sometimes when the opportunity is so big and you just kind of know it, you've just got to plunge in without the proper information, do the work, and if it doesn't work out, it doesn't matter whether you're a profit or loss.
FCF surprises are generating larger stock reactions than EPS surprises. Separate operating strength from cash conversion, incremental capex and the return on AI spending in 2028.
Lots of bottom callers out there huh.
We usually bottom once the CTAs get short. Creates the most reflexive bottom.
HY6 retweeted
Volatility arrived,we were prepared and capitalized!
Another great week in the books!
Some highlights from room:
🔥SPX 7500 puts 5.2-98! 1800%
🔥NVDA puts layers up to 8X hilyas
🔥NVDA 180s swing 400% hy6
🔥GLD calls 670% hy6
🔥TSLA puts 460% simo
🔥MU calls up to 4X dersh hy6
🔥GOOGL calls 3X hy6
🔥SPCX puts 3X Rviz
🔥MU puts 11-83 654%
🔥SPCX buy up 13pts bottom tick
If you’re a serious trader and wish to join our private room. DM us
No beginners
When the bottleneck bros aka the fundamentalists start talking fwd PEs you know it’s bad.
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Want to hear something crazy? Markets are currently overbought! 😂
105 on the McClellanOscillator (NYSE)
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And of course the mkt punished them badly. Wonder if shareholders on both sides reject the merger???
My .02…. $NVDA Would be much higher if they would have stayed out this seller circular financing to CRWV et al and just grew the right steady way.
Bingo
Good Paul Tudor Jones quote from May of 2009 (h/t to GS Tony P). Might as well be from today
“These days, there are many more deep intellectuals in the business, and that, coupled with the explosion of information on the Internet, creates an illusion that there is an explanation for everything and that the primary task is simply to find that explanation... I see the younger generation hampered by the need to understand and rationalize why something should go up or down. Usually, by the time that becomes self-evident, the move is already over”
This is going around and everyone in awe bc fundamentals are so strong yet here we are.
Stocks w revenues locked up for 2yrs in advance trading at single digit multiples down 70%zzzYou ask why???
Because liquidity drives all. Rates, crude oil, debt issuance, IPOs, it’s sucked out the excess leverage from system.
The hope or bull case is war gets resolved oil comes down, unemployment ticks up a a growth scare and the Fed steps in to increase that liquidity. Then it’s 1998 not 2000






